It's done to get a reaction and sadly it works most of the time. Anyone who proclaims to know the outlook post 7-10 days for the UK even in a zonal period is not worth listening to, plus you will note the forecasts are rarely backed up with evidence and they dissappear when the we enter a colder spell, then reappear when it ends. If only the weather was as easy to predict as their posting pattern is. 

That's really not true though.

Zonality (for an extended period) is easy to forecast in winter, purely because to get high latitude blocking you need certain background conditions to produce the required amplification to ultimately displace cold air southwards. This doesn't happen by magic. High pressure doesn't just appear over Greenland or Scandinavia by chance; you can often trace the initial amplification right back to the Pacific.

That's why the December cold spell was so easy to forecast- we saw repeated amplified waves working around the hemisphere which ultimately led to a buckled jet stream and allowed pressure to rise to our east.

We have none of that now...the November pattern waned a long time ago and angular momentum fell away, taking the amplification with it. Ergo, other than brief colder shots spilling south (due to the jet being pushed further south at times), there is no mechanism other than a SSW that will bring us out of this zonal period for the foreseeable. This being said, a weakly amplified passage through MJO phases 6,7,8 may give rise to a drier pattern (mid latitude block) in two week's time or so. You can write off any sustained wintry weather in the next 2 weeks though at least. 

I Don't remember you or anyone  forecasting a week of Ice days from the cold spell In  December weeks before it occurred?? 

if you could forecast with the accuracy you proclaim you would be a billionaire. Your method may work for the northen hemisphere on a whole but the UK is such a small area and the positioning of where the genral pattern  sets up can have a significant impact on the weather we get. 

it's all most impossible to forecast over 50% accuracy +7-10 range overtime if you could I'd recommend providing your services as it would make you a very rich person. 

I did, just not on here.

This was posted at the end of October over on the other forum-

Posted October 25, 2022 

Very encouraging GFS at D8 for the longer term.

As I point out every year, troughing struggling to get past the meridian is what you want to see as you enter November. Nov 2009 featured this in abundance. To my eyes it looks as though the strat is going to be roughed up slightly over the next couple of weeks.

This is a prelude to a pattern change as we go further into Nov and Dec.

A period of meridional jet stream across the Atlantic looks odds on to me latter Nov/into December. The seasonals concur with this too, which is good.

The December spell was very well signposted...

In order to understand what is going on hemispherically and where it is most likely to lead to going forward, you have to have a sound grasp on both the drivers and also be able to analyse the current state of what is going on through NWP in real time. A lot of people cannot do this. So, whilst there is an element of chaos within the umbrella of longer range forecasting, there is also a probabilities game which can be incorporated by implementing the above.

Once you go zonal in the heart of winter (as we are now) it 90% of the time takes a major shake up to get us out of it. This could be via a highly amplified passage through the correct phases of the MJO and increased angular momentum or via wave breaking which leads to a SSW. None of these look likely in the near future, hence we are likely to remain changeable and mild on average.

I'll also add that most people don't realise just how close we were to something very spectacular and long lasting. We needed to keep the amplified wave train going for maybe another week or so in order for a feedback to be initiated i.e continued pressure exerted on the stratosphere from the trop pattern below (the trop was leading the dance). Had we maintained the amplification then, IMO, we'd have been home and dry...the strat would have been out of the game and the trop would have continued to lead the dance throughout January. We just needed the Pacific to play ball for a little while longer. The models toyed with it...

WX temp chart - the solid mass of very cold air over Russia in week 1, having failed to make much impression on W Europe breaks up and withdraws E-wards in week 2, with the 0C isotherm running more or less due N-S from Ukraine to Scandinavia, If anything, some milder air works up the W coast of France towards Britain. Rain/pptn sticking with Atlantic coasts, heavy for all of Britain in week 1, pulling back somewhat to the NW in week 2.

GFS Op - a generally zonal W-ly flow across Britain and deflected well to the N as it continues E-wards by a persistent block over S Russia. W-lies augmented by passing LPs 955mb Sun 8th Hebrides, 955mb Wed 11th Rockall, 965mb Thu 19th S Iceland.

ECM similar and throws in an extra LP Sun 15th 980mb N Ireland

GEFS - temps generally near seasonal norm (possible short bursts of mild, now, Wed 11th, Sun 15th, cooler between) and rain at most times in most ens members, least in NE esp at first, most in W

If we do get an SSW, it will not probably affect January now, but February, so I feel it's a safe bet to write off this month now.

If/when I'm wrong and the 2nd half if January turns cold, I will take all the hammerings that come my way.

But I don't think January will deliver now.

I am entitled to my opinion, just as I am entitled to change my opinion when viewing the models.   

so basically the most zonal bog standard typical pattern you could get locked in for most of the remainder of the month?

January increasingly seems to be all bark and no bite.

There’s not been much bark evident either so far!

More of the same although the jet seems to be sinking ever further south through the run giving the possibility of snow increasingly far south by the end of the run. I suspect it is GFS being overkeen on playing up the snow risk, as snow in the south is extremely rare from a westerly set-up, but you never know.

I'm not convinced by that, at least in the southern half of the UK. My guess is that temps over the next couple of weeks when aggregated will be above the average. 

2021?

Average is mild 😋

Average in regards to upper air temperatures perhaps but the lack of cold nights and frosts means it will likely still be above average in regards to mean temperatures over a 24 hour period.

Indeed, but even the daytime temperatures look most likely to be above the average, at least in the south.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=tmp2max&loc=london&lat=51.5&lon=0&p=&cty= 

Thank god the mild weather had been a massive blessing to keep the heating costs down as now so far up to 5th Jan my billing is £8 less than last month horror bone dry cold spell, from £26 to £18. If there no snow or real cold in the models then better to stay mild.  My apps show 8 to 12C temps which is above average for here in Jan at 7C.  Daylight also now slowly drawing out. Temps will rise to 11C tonight so another great night for shorter quicker heating up indoors when very mild and cloudy over night.