theweatheroutlook

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sunny coast
06 January 2023 12:54:54

When was the last cold January? December and March seem favourites in recent decades. Never happens during the coldest part of winter.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



2013 the last time anything significant for most parts
Sharp Green Fox
06 January 2023 13:49:51
Yes. It snowed in Worcestershire January 2021 and stayed for several days. Really enjoyed my walks around the lanes (no cars).
Brian Gaze
06 January 2023 14:07:33
January 24th 2021 was a decent snow event here. This pic was taken in my garden.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/sky-eye-gallery.aspx?id=20210124121023_20210124&user=brian%20gaze&ut=Berkhamsted&uc=Hers&ucr=&ud=Level%20snow%20depth%20approx%207cm%20at%20midday&lat=51.8&lon=-0.5 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jiries
06 January 2023 14:33:48

January 24th 2021 was a decent snow event here. This pic was taken in my garden.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/sky-eye-gallery.aspx?id=20210124121023_20210124&user=brian%20gaze&ut=Berkhamsted&uc=Hers&ucr=&ud=Level%20snow%20depth%20approx%207cm%20at%20midday&lat=51.8&lon=-0.5 
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



That day was the best in here too at 8cm and 0C all day and heating cost was only £4 for 24 hours heating at 20C.  Today I think it would be £20-£25 for heating at 24 hours.  2021 was a snowy year here from Jan to April then Nov and early Dec so that 6 months, in 2022 nothing.

It the matter when we will get very deep plunge on the model charts? last time was early April 2021 when very strong northerly blast came here and had lot of snow showers and above freezing temps.  Could had that last month when Greenland was very cold at -32 850s temps at SE area but models refused to let it go south by inserting HP over to the south and the never exist battle ground failed for Xmas period.
nsrobins
06 January 2023 15:35:44
The debate about what is average is interesting :)
Given hopes for a mid to late winter surge of, err, 'winter' weather seem to hinge on an SSW it's worth looking at the latest thinking on whether one will occur or not. It should always be noted that even if we get a technical SSW (reversal of mean zonal wind component at 10hPa; 60N), it doesn't always mean a QTR (Quick Troposheric Reponse) that seems to be one of the elements needed in promoting a surface response in terms of blocking, and even if it does the said blocking needs to be favourably positioned to get cold arctic air into the UK.
To be fair there are so many things that need to click it's almost not worth bothering with it but we'll see.
The latest CFS zonal wind ensemble does suggest a steady reduction in the westerly zonal component in the next three weeks, with some members falling to -10 or so. It's worth monitoring as it could change quickly and a technical SSW might be in the outlook by week 4 January. Any response will not manifest itself at the surface until a week or so after the SWW occurs so any comments in the next few days like 'is the later stage of GFS the start of a SSW repsonse' are very premature IMO.
Of course there are other mechanisms that could promote HLB again so we shouldn;t be rstricted to this phenomena, but as it stands the next few weeks at least look mobile, unsetlled and dare I say 'average'.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
06 January 2023 19:02:15

The GFS det run shows snow cover for much of the country by the latter stages. As mentioned above I imagine the reality would be cold rain anywhere south of the Midlands and/or at low altitudes - GFS seems not to factor in the UK surface mildness for whatever reason.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Been a shift in models in terms of the mean zonal wind at 10hpa:

Some ENS members going for a reversal now:

Updated Thursday 5th January 23

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20230105-2000/cd/ps2png-worker-commands-5d9fc45c7d-kkx7k-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Fno2pm.png 

UserPostedImage

Compared to Monday 2nd January 2023

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20230105-2040/fc/ps2png-worker-commands-5d9fc45c7d-cgg94-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-zk9WSG.png 

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
06 January 2023 19:20:54
12z ECM @ 240z looks good over the top of the N. pole if this does verify then there could be some interest later in the month:

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ballamar
06 January 2023 19:42:46
ECM looks a little more seasonal esp for more northern parts, but as January has been written off I will ignore it
+2
Jacee
06 January 2023 19:44:10
I'm pleased to see the continued signal for a polar maritime influence by mid-month. It has been a repeated theme across the models when looking at FI charts and it seems like next weekend might finally introduce something colder from the northwest.

UserPostedImage

While the Met Office model doesn't go as far, it does seem poised for the same on its 168h chart 😊

UserPostedImage
 
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+1
ballamar
06 January 2023 22:33:17
Lot less mild in a colder W/NW flow on GFS op run no doubt some heavy wintry showers for prone spots 
ballamar
06 January 2023 22:49:47
Looks like something stirring over the Arctic on GFS - hopefully will push the low further and further south - could end up very cold this run

not to be this time but subsequent runs might get a bit more favourable 
Downpour
06 January 2023 23:15:46

Looks like something stirring over the Arctic on GFS - hopefully will push the low further and further south - could end up very cold this run

not to be this time but subsequent runs might get a bit more favourable 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



one can only hope something gives to break up this endless dross. Following the (epic for here, bone dry for most) cold spell, it’s been wall to wall Atlantic garbage. Indeed Moomin’s much mocked “3-4 weeks of raging zonality” might prove to be a understatement. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
06 January 2023 23:17:29
Ends up on a near nirvana for cold countrywide - hopefully a trend and not just a decent pub run
tallyho_83
06 January 2023 23:49:56

Ends up on a near nirvana for cold countrywide - hopefully a trend and not just a decent pub run

Originally Posted by: ballamar 




Yes both control and Operation end of a cold note or what appears to be heading in a colder and more blocked pattern and that Siberian high pressure is infiltrating NW into the Arctic regions . N Scandinavia as well as the fact we could well see an SSW at some point gifen the forecast for the zonal winds are to weaken considerably after mid-month. But will they reverse? time will tell?
At the very end of the run though shows the PV really being squeezed and displaced into N. America/Canada and with that major warming at 10hpa heading in the direction of the N. Pole if we were to go on for another few days....!? 

UserPostedImage

Just anything but wind and rain every bloody day!
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
06 January 2023 23:55:26
Brian will you start a new Model Output thread at some point? - just wondering?

end of the 18z Op Run: 
Notice the Siberian High moving north westwards?

UserPostedImage






 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 January 2023 08:26:21
In week 1, WX charts keep the focus of very cold air over Russia with steep temp gradient to the Polish border; west of that is still well above norm for the time of year. In week 2, that focus doesn't break up as much as shown yesterday, and W Europe becomes cooler, especially away from coasts and in mountainous areas.

GFS Op includes a N Atlantic jet which has strengthened over the last few days, to start with waving first S then N of Britain, but interestingly from about Fri 20th beginning to buckle which may usher in a change of pattern. The synoptics however look much like they did yesterday with W-lies augmented from time to time by deeper LPs (Sun 8th 955mb Rockall, Wed 11th the same) but calming down with ridge of HP from Sun 15th. This has backtracked from last night's output which showed LPs much further south and a NW-ly regime. Then to match the jet above, Thu 19th sees LP established 980mb Sweden with an elongated N_S trough sinking S-wards, by Mon 23rd centred 1010mb Belgium, NE-lies for S Britain, and the beginnings of a Scandi HP.

ECM does run the LPs further S; Wed 11th 970mb N Scotland, 970mb Fri 13th Hebrides, and by Sun 15th HP stays out in the Atlantic and LP 970mb N Sea with NW-lies.

GEFS up (most likely 11th and 16th) and down but mean mostly close to norm and some rain for all areas at various times. The Op is a dramatically cold outlier from Thu 19th; snow row figures for the Highlands also start to increase.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Jiries
07 January 2023 08:28:29

one can only hope something gives to break up this endless dross. Following the (epic for here, bone dry for most) cold spell, it’s been wall to wall Atlantic garbage. Indeed Moomin’s much mocked “3-4 weeks of raging zonality” might prove to be a understatement. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



We been on raging zonality since 18th Dec so Moomin was correct as now it 3 weeks and no end of sight but massive blessing for heating costs much down this month.  I checked Toronto and it still mild with low to mid single plus digit when by now suppose to be -1 and -10 at night on average. My cousin told me it been mild most of the time.  Question why we still have raging zonality and PV sitting in wrong place if still mild in Toronto? If mild there we should be looking at cold and snowy by then. 
Brian Gaze
07 January 2023 08:43:27

Brian will you start a new Model Output thread at some point? - just wondering?

end of the 18z Op Run: 
Notice the Siberian High moving north westwards?

UserPostedImage






 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Normally after 50 pages. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
dagspot
07 January 2023 09:24:11

If mild there we should be looking at cold and snowy by then. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Is that the case?
Neilston 600ft ASL
MBrothers
07 January 2023 09:28:28

Is that the case?

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


sounds a very simple format 😂
moomin75
07 January 2023 09:31:21

one can only hope something gives to break up this endless dross. Following the (epic for here, bone dry for most) cold spell, it’s been wall to wall Atlantic garbage. Indeed Moomin’s much mocked “3-4 weeks of raging zonality” might prove to be a understatement.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Experience tells me that when a Zonal spell sets up in the North Atlantic, it can take weeks, or even months, to shift.

Hence why I felt we were on the cusp of a long Zonal spell.

​​​​​​​I've a feeling it may blow itself out by February, but we have a lot of water to go under the bridge before we settle down again.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
doctormog
07 January 2023 09:47:49
One look at the FI GFS 00z op run clearly highlights the futility of guesses at our weather a couple of weeks in advance. The fact that the 06z op run (out in the coming hour) for the same time may be completely different emphasises this even further.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
briggsy6
07 January 2023 10:22:47
According to my Collins Weather guide February is a drier month on average than January (for London at least) so reasons to hope for an improvement in our weather - though it might be a few weeks until we see any change.
Location: Uxbridge
ballamar
07 January 2023 10:24:14

One look at the FI GFS 00z op run clearly highlights the futility of guesses at our weather a couple of weeks in advance. The fact that the 06z op run (out in the coming hour) for the same time may be completely different emphasises this even further.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



But Moomin said winter wouldn’t come back until at least first week of Feb. Models must be wrong thought it was safe to not look at Jan
doctormog
07 January 2023 10:36:57

But Moomin said winter wouldn’t come back until at least first week of Feb. Models must be wrong thought it was safe to not look at Jan

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



His guess may be right and time will tell as it has done with his previous multi-week guesses over the past year. The point is that the guess is based on current conditions, climate averages and psychology not model output. I would be as misguided to say with confidence that he will be wrong about weeks of zonal conditions as he would be to state with absolute confidence that is what will happen. 

Wintry weather may return this month, at the start of February or not all this season. In early January it is impossible to say which will be the case.

Our planet’s weather is so complicated and our little group of islands’ weather affected by so many factors, many local others global, that it is impossible to say what will happen with any real confidence beyond a week or so. Yes, we get hints and patterns but that’s all they are. We can all use the climate norms or averages or prevailing Atlantic weather to make a guess and most times we would be right but it doesn’t really make it model analysis.

The top researchers in the area with the best equipment and access to data understand the limitations and always caveat the outlook beyond a certain time period and issue probabilistic forecasts. Some could learn from that. With probabilities even less likely scenarios do occurs and hopefully when that happens we all learn a little from it.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
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