12z out to +168 markedly similar to the 6z in terms of the UK'ish wider region. Angles the low to our NNE slightly differently, which changes the shape of the finger of very cold air coming in from the NNW. On the 6z, it's repulsed by the development of the next Atlantic turd that plonks its malevolent arse down to our SW and pumps mild crap northwards; on the 12z, it's sadly the same end result.

Fecking heights over mainland Europe/Med again. Stiffs us every sodding time. Ideally need the lows to be crashing through mainland Europe and reports of persistent rain across Spain/Southern France/Italy/Balkans.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

This absolutely needs watching. A smidgeon further south could result in a major snowfall for central areas, akin to the 18z last night. Fine margins. 

Unlikely but the risk is there. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_186_1.png 

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland.

Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy.

Where's the sick bowl?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Being 8 days away give time to correct south as they do often.

Are you aware that there some snow coming down here tomorrow morning after a hard cold frost tonight?  It appeared on the apps showing snowing from 7am to 10am.   Can't be trusted with it but why it appeared? Any short range model showing it? Thought will be dry tomorrow with some sunshine and clouds increaseing during the day.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Good grief that 12z GFS really does spell the end. Horrendous for collies, utterly depressing and definitely no quick way back.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

From my experience collies love rain & mud.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Here  is the 12z GEFS ensemble mean chart for Christmas Day:

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

12z GFS ENS seem to show a 'warmer' cluster developing in the run up to Christmas and then a colder cluster. Manchester snow depth ENS actually the most lively they've been all winter so far around Christmas and beyond.

Originally Posted by: Gary L 

Met Office Global is also worth a look at t+168

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Good grief that 12z GFS really does spell the end. Horrendous for collies, utterly depressing and definitely no quick way back.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

No surprise for me. It will be another typically green, damp, mild squib of a Christmas, just like we experience nearly every year.In my 46 years on this planet, I have not witnessed a single white Christmas, and the 2010 December, I was in Australia, so missed all the fun and games!​​​​​​​I still think the next cold chase will be in the New Year, and a couple of weeks at least.​​​​​​​Our hope remains, as the atmosphere is not in its normal winter state.    

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I feel sorry for any newbies/lurkers reading this thread tonight. 😂

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yes that does look utterly horrendous with strong high pressure to the South, a dreaded pattern that has become all too common in recent years. If that was to verify I would say it would be a very long way back from that if it all.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740