Still all to play for next week, the models certainly provide hope for both mild and cold options, don’t you just love the unpredictability of weather 😊😊, after all that’s why we love talking about it 👍

I guessed so 😜

OK I'll bite. Hehe.... yep nothing to see here. The UK in winter is well known for predictable weather patterns that are reliably forecastable for weeks ahead. May as well go and do something else for a few weeks. The GFS 12z ensemble 850 outliers have a range of about 18C next Fri and the whole pack is spread over 15C by the 27th. Pretty much nailed on then. 

Later in January??  We don't know what we'll be seeing out of the window later next week! 😆

I’m quite enjoying it to be honest 🤣

Living in the Central Belt (West Lothian) I’m still clinging to some hope of a cold Xmas but even the possibility of colder air is on a knife edge for southern Scotland 

When the Dec 09 spell broke down (after doing the gentlemanly thing and waiting till after Xmas on the 27th), I figured that was it for the foreseeable. 

Imagine my surprise when the early Jan heavy snow hit. 

😀

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?&ech=0&mode=0&carte=1 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=15&carte=2 

Temps in southern Scandinavia(Helsinki, Stockholm etc) will be up to 4/5C next week, so I imagine the snow cover will take a bit of a beating. But they’re forecast to have subzero highs again once the milder blip has moved through. 

Stockholm had a high of -11C today, so a big increase coming up…

Yep will be a bumper season if that comes off and the  high nudges south to settle things down after all that snow. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=270&mode=16&carte=1 

finding the charts fascinating northern blocking is desperate to get back to a cold position for UK but the high to the south is a beast as well. That boundary could cause massive flooding and snowfall

It reads to me like a prediction for the latter part of December.

now that I am an old fart I feel the cold much more so I am looking forward to not having to wear 3 jumpers in bed for a week at least. Plenty of potential post Christmas but we probably won’t see any sudden flips again. 

I would personally be cautious about assuming a mild wet and windy Christmas Day 

Correct, Joe.  Looking at the ensemble table for my area it shows two bursts of mild weather: Monday into Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. Into Xmas Day and beyond, mild options are a tiny minority.

Yes,. there has been much gloom about the north west vortex cranking up towards the New Year, but the latest GFS shows that that particular outcome is not a done deal.  Watching the low heights trying desperately to encroach into Greenland from the East is comparable to the Russian army.  Massive threat on paper but gains extremely difficult to achieve and lo and behold, the Ukrainians are taking back territory.  Fascinating model watching.  All options on the table.

Around Christmas in the south there are tentative signs of some clustering a clear drop in temps. Whether there will be snow remains to be seen.

Heights non existent over Greenland and high pressure coming home to roost over Central Europe in its default position.