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MRayner
16 December 2022 19:21:05
Personally I don’t give a monkeys if there’s no more cold spells, this one’s been a cracker compared to years gone by, normally we would be jumping up and down just to get below zero and a few snow showers. 
Still all to play for next week, the models certainly provide hope for both mild and cold options, don’t you just love the unpredictability of weather 😊😊, after all that’s why we love talking about it 👍
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
+4
picturesareme
16 December 2022 19:41:08

Haha. Bloody auto correct. 😂😂🌧 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



I guessed so 😜
marcus72
16 December 2022 19:42:03

Shame but it's all over now. We can always hope for Something in later January.

Originally Posted by: shepherd 



OK I'll bite. Hehe.... yep nothing to see here. The UK in winter is well known for predictable weather patterns that are reliably forecastable for weeks ahead. May as well go and do something else for a few weeks. The GFS 12z ensemble 850 outliers have a range of about 18C next Fri and the whole pack is spread over 15C by the 27th. Pretty much nailed on then. 

Later in January??  We don't know what we'll be seeing out of the window later next week! 😆
Langstone, SE Hampshire
HFC1875
16 December 2022 20:05:39

I feel sorry for any newbies/lurkers reading this thread tonight. 😂

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



I’m quite enjoying it to be honest 🤣

Living in the Central Belt (West Lothian) I’m still clinging to some hope of a cold Xmas but even the possibility of colder air is on a knife edge for southern Scotland 
Saint Snow
16 December 2022 21:20:28

OK I'll bite. Hehe.... yep nothing to see here. The UK in winter is well known for predictable weather patterns that are reliably forecastable for weeks ahead. May as well go and do something else for a few weeks. The GFS 12z ensemble 850 outliers have a range of about 18C next Fri and the whole pack is spread over 15C by the 27th. Pretty much nailed on then. 

Later in January??  We don't know what we'll be seeing out of the window later next week! 😆

Originally Posted by: marcus72 



When the Dec 09 spell broke down (after doing the gentlemanly thing and waiting till after Xmas on the 27th), I figured that was it for the foreseeable. 

Imagine my surprise when the early Jan heavy snow hit. 

😀


 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Brian Gaze
16 December 2022 21:28:30
Some interest?

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+2
Gavin D
16 December 2022 21:51:10
Zubzero
16 December 2022 22:02:35
My knowledge of the stratosphere is very limited and I thought the PV was slightly weaker then normal and displaced atm, or are they suggesting it will strengthen in the future? 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?&ech=0&mode=0&carte=1 
 
Zubzero
16 December 2022 22:20:27
That's some cold plunge for the US even for them the 850hpa anomaly is off the scale. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=15&carte=2 
 
LeedsLad123
16 December 2022 22:23:01

Hopefully this upcoming cold spell doesn't wipe out the snow cover in Sacandinavia and NW Europe. This has been more extensive this year at this stage than in recent winters. Always useful if we do get a North Easterly. Nature is not always a reliable forecaster but we tend to see bigger flocks of Redwings and Fieldwares in colder winters and this spell has brought massive flocks to the snow covered parts of the S.E.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Temps in southern Scandinavia(Helsinki, Stockholm etc) will be up to 4/5C next week, so I imagine the snow cover will take a bit of a beating. But they’re forecast to have subzero highs again once the milder blip has moved through. 

Stockholm had a high of -11C today, so a big increase coming up…
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
ballamar
16 December 2022 22:46:22
Think it’s time to open a Scottish ski resort if GFS anything to go by!
Zubzero
16 December 2022 22:49:39

Think it’s time to open a Scottish ski resort if GFS anything to go by!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Yep will be a bumper season if that comes off and the  high nudges south to settle things down after all that snow. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=270&mode=16&carte=1 
 
ballamar
16 December 2022 22:58:23

Yep will be a bumper season if that comes off and the  high nudges south to settle things down after all that snow. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=270&mode=16&carte=1 
 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


finding the charts fascinating northern blocking is desperate to get back to a cold position for UK but the high to the south is a beast as well. That boundary could cause massive flooding and snowfall
Gandalf The White
16 December 2022 23:01:49

My knowledge of the stratosphere is very limited and I thought the PV was slightly weaker then normal and displaced atm, or are they suggesting it will strengthen in the future? 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?&ech=0&mode=0&carte=1 
 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



It reads to me like a prediction for the latter part of December.

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Rob K
16 December 2022 23:14:52
Not quite understanding the levels of pessimism on here this evening. The charts still look pretty finely balanced with the chance of serious cold in Scotland and snow further south at times. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
16 December 2022 23:29:47

Not quite understanding the levels of pessimism on here this evening. The charts still look pretty finely balanced with the chance of serious cold in Scotland and snow further south at times. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


now that I am an old fart I feel the cold much more so I am looking forward to not having to wear 3 jumpers in bed for a week at least. Plenty of potential post Christmas but we probably won’t see any sudden flips again. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
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+1
Joe Bloggs
17 December 2022 00:50:03
18z GFS ensemble set 

I would personally be cautious about assuming a mild wet and windy Christmas Day 

UserPostedImage

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gandalf The White
17 December 2022 01:02:51

18z GFS ensemble set 

I would personally be cautious about assuming a mild wet and windy Christmas Day 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Correct, Joe.  Looking at the ensemble table for my area it shows two bursts of mild weather: Monday into Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. Into Xmas Day and beyond, mild options are a tiny minority.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


UncleAlbert
17 December 2022 01:06:45

18z GFS ensemble set 

I would personally be cautious about assuming a mild wet and windy Christmas Day 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yes,. there has been much gloom about the north west vortex cranking up towards the New Year, but the latest GFS shows that that particular outcome is not a done deal.  Watching the low heights trying desperately to encroach into Greenland from the East is comparable to the Russian army.  Massive threat on paper but gains extremely difficult to achieve and lo and behold, the Ukrainians are taking back territory.  Fascinating model watching.  All options on the table.
Heavy Weather 2013
17 December 2022 05:54:17
All bets are are off looking at the GFS ensembles this morning. 

Around Christmas in the south there are tentative signs of some clustering a clear drop in temps. Whether there will be snow remains to be seen.

 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
17 December 2022 06:08:42
Decent output this morning especially for Scotland which looks like having a very snowy festive period.  With snow chances also further south.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
17 December 2022 06:41:17
Tomorrow's snow event looks like nothing now, very fragmented precipitation,  disappointing end to the cold spell.  
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Snow Hoper
17 December 2022 06:58:10
UKMO Is rather good this morning at 168hrs. Some minor adjustments and it'll make a lot of people feel very festive.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
doctormog
17 December 2022 07:36:24
The pattern on the 00z GFS ensemble data for next week is interesting. This chart for here  hints at the proximity of cold to the north. Small changes in synoptics could have massive impacts in our weather over Christmas. It could still turn out either wintry or very mild for many people.

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
White Meadows
17 December 2022 07:42:37
Dull prospects for coldies continues this morning. 'All opinions off the table' speaks the same as 'no options on the table'. 
Heights non existent over Greenland and high pressure coming home to roost over Central Europe in its default position. 
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