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ballamar
16 December 2022 10:35:50
Christmas Day certainly could be massively different at 2 end of the country! Would be great to see even if on the wrong end
Heavy Weather 2013
16 December 2022 10:43:16
An exciting run for many parts of the UK. Particularly in Scotland. The pressure patterns look a complete mess though - all sorts going on.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
ballamar
16 December 2022 11:05:37
Potential easterly at end of GFS - would be a great start to Jan
Rob K
16 December 2022 11:09:59

An exciting run for many parts of the UK. Particularly in Scotland. The pressure patterns look a complete mess though - all sorts going on.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Particularly the north Midlands I would say with a Boxing Day blizzard!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
dagspot
16 December 2022 11:13:39
so winters back on then?  🙂 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Rob K
16 December 2022 11:15:16

so winters back on then?  🙂 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


If you live 600ft up in Scotland I would say it was never off!😁

The theme seems to be for cold air to desperately try to get south but getting held off by stubborn heights over Europe.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
16 December 2022 11:32:10

If you live 600ft up in Scotland I would say it was never off!😁

The theme seems to be for cold air to desperately try to get south but getting held off by stubborn heights over Europe.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Surely with more runs and UK is a very small landmass so impossible to keep cold and mild divide line permanently so either we get cold or mild nationwide.  Those dividing lines only found in large continents.  Those height in south are not supposed to be there all the time in winter only in summer.
Gary L
16 December 2022 12:40:28
06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0 
Saint Snow
16 December 2022 12:47:41

06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0 

Originally Posted by: Gary L 




It's not a great picture overall, though. There's a lack of grouping in the -5c 850's, but a definite grouping to warm up again after the slight dip (itself much less pronounced that some previous runs) following the initial warming.

On Xmas Eve, there's just one single pert dupping below -5c; on Xmas Day just two.

That's very discouraging.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gary L
16 December 2022 12:50:42

It's not a great picture overall, though. There's a lack of grouping in the -5c 850's, but a definite grouping to warm up again after the slight dip (itself much less pronounced that some previous runs) following the initial warming.

On Xmas Eve, there's just one single pert dupping below -5c; on Xmas Day just two.

That's very discouraging.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day. 
Brian Gaze
16 December 2022 13:05:53
GEFS 06z looks quite mixed and often rather mild. With that said I wonder if we could see a brief colder interlude coinciding with Christmas day itself.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Russwirral
16 December 2022 13:18:52

GEFS 06z looks quite mixed and often rather mild. With that said I wonder if we could see a brief colder interlude coinciding with Christmas day itself.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Starting to look a bit zonal that.  one day mild, the next cold  Swinging from +5 to -5 uppers
Russwirral
16 December 2022 13:20:17

06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0 

Originally Posted by: Gary L 



Yesterday they seemed a bit more scattered towards a colder theme.. seems thats swung back the other way today

Alot of uncertainty in everything that is uncertain at the moment... if that makes any sense... 😃
Taylor1740
16 December 2022 13:25:33
I think we can now definitively say that there is no chance of a cold spell over the Xmas period. We will have to hope January surprises us with something.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Brian Gaze
16 December 2022 13:26:51

Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day. 

Originally Posted by: Gary L 



On the TWO grid point for Manchester 45% are at or below -5C and 3% at or below -10C.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=06&fv=tmp850&loc=manchester&lat=53.5&lon=-2.5&p=&cty= 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Joe Bloggs
16 December 2022 13:33:46

I think we can now definitively say that there is no chance of a cold spell over the Xmas period. We will have to hope January surprises us with something.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Totally disagree. A number of runs have shown a cold vs mild battle with snow for central areas. 

Mild looks most likely but there is nothing definitive about it. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Saint Snow
16 December 2022 13:46:48

Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day. 

Originally Posted by: Gary L 



I must have been looking at a cached pic - sorry

(in which case the 6z ens are an improvement on the one I was seeing 😆) 
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
BJBlake
16 December 2022 13:58:37
It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Taylor1740
16 December 2022 14:21:07

It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


yes it also confuses me why the BBC are always so 'confident' in mild weather in the longer range in these situations even when the models might suggest otherwise. Unfortunately this time it looks like their mild rhetoric will be correct.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
picturesareme
16 December 2022 14:34:53

It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



As to is the met office automated forecast. High of 12C still next Thursday here with an overnight lows of 9C.
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