Christmas Day certainly could be massively different at 2 end of the country! Would be great to see even if on the wrong end

An exciting run for many parts of the UK. Particularly in Scotland. The pressure patterns look a complete mess though - all sorts going on.

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Potential easterly at end of GFS - would be a great start to Jan

An exciting run for many parts of the UK. Particularly in Scotland. The pressure patterns look a complete mess though - all sorts going on.

Particularly the north Midlands I would say with a Boxing Day blizzard!

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so winters back on then?  🙂 

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so winters back on then?  🙂 

If you live 600ft up in Scotland I would say it was never off!😁

The theme seems to be for cold air to desperately try to get south but getting held off by stubborn heights over Europe.

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If you live 600ft up in Scotland I would say it was never off!😁

The theme seems to be for cold air to desperately try to get south but getting held off by stubborn heights over Europe.

Surely with more runs and UK is a very small landmass so impossible to keep cold and mild divide line permanently so either we get cold or mild nationwide.  Those dividing lines only found in large continents.  Those height in south are not supposed to be there all the time in winter only in summer.

06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0 

06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0 

It's not a great picture overall, though. There's a lack of grouping in the -5c 850's, but a definite grouping to warm up again after the slight dip (itself much less pronounced that some previous runs) following the initial warming.

On Xmas Eve, there's just one single pert dupping below -5c; on Xmas Day just two.

That's very discouraging.

 

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It's not a great picture overall, though. There's a lack of grouping in the -5c 850's, but a definite grouping to warm up again after the slight dip (itself much less pronounced that some previous runs) following the initial warming.

On Xmas Eve, there's just one single pert dupping below -5c; on Xmas Day just two.

That's very discouraging.

 

Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day. 

GEFS 06z looks quite mixed and often rather mild. With that said I wonder if we could see a brief colder interlude coinciding with Christmas day itself.

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GEFS 06z looks quite mixed and often rather mild. With that said I wonder if we could see a brief colder interlude coinciding with Christmas day itself.

Starting to look a bit zonal that.  one day mild, the next cold  Swinging from +5 to -5 uppers

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06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0 

Yesterday they seemed a bit more scattered towards a colder theme.. seems thats swung back the other way today

Alot of uncertainty in everything that is uncertain at the moment... if that makes any sense... 😃

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I think we can now definitively say that there is no chance of a cold spell over the Xmas period. We will have to hope January surprises us with something.

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Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day. 

On the TWO grid point for Manchester 45% are at or below -5C and 3% at or below -10C.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=06&fv=tmp850&loc=manchester&lat=53.5&lon=-2.5&p=&cty= 
 

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I think we can now definitively say that there is no chance of a cold spell over the Xmas period. We will have to hope January surprises us with something.

Totally disagree. A number of runs have shown a cold vs mild battle with snow for central areas. 

Mild looks most likely but there is nothing definitive about it. 

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Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day. 

I must have been looking at a cached pic - sorry

(in which case the 6z ens are an improvement on the one I was seeing 😆) 
 

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It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.

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It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.

yes it also confuses me why the BBC are always so 'confident' in mild weather in the longer range in these situations even when the models might suggest otherwise. Unfortunately this time it looks like their mild rhetoric will be correct.

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It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.

As to is the met office automated forecast. High of 12C still next Thursday here with an overnight lows of 9C.