Model Output thread: 16th December 08:08· Page 2

Rob K
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 11:15:16

so winters back on then? 🙂

Originally Posted by: dagspot

If you live 600ft up in Scotland I would say it was never off!😁

The theme seems to be for cold air to desperately try to get south but getting held off by stubborn heights over Europe.

Edited by user 16 December 2022 11:16:44 | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 11:32:10

#27

If you live 600ft up in Scotland I would say it was never off!😁

The theme seems to be for cold air to desperately try to get south but getting held off by stubborn heights over Europe.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

Surely with more runs and UK is a very small landmass so impossible to keep cold and mild divide line permanently so either we get cold or mild nationwide. Those dividing lines only found in large continents. Those height in south are not supposed to be there all the time in winter only in summer.

Gary L
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 12:40:28

#28

06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 12:47:41

#29

06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0

Originally Posted by: Gary L

It's not a great picture overall, though. There's a lack of grouping in the -5c 850's, but a definite grouping to warm up again after the slight dip (itself much less pronounced that some previous runs) following the initial warming.

On Xmas Eve, there's just one single pert dupping below -5c; on Xmas Day just two.

That's very discouraging.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Gary L
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 12:50:42

#30

It's not a great picture overall, though. There's a lack of grouping in the -5c 850's, but a definite grouping to warm up again after the slight dip (itself much less pronounced that some previous runs) following the initial warming.

On Xmas Eve, there's just one single pert dupping below -5c; on Xmas Day just two.

That's very discouraging.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day.

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

16 December 2022 13:05:53

#31

GEFS 06z looks quite mixed and often rather mild. With that said I wonder if we could see a brief colder interlude coinciding with Christmas day itself.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Russwirral
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 13:18:52

#32

GEFS 06z looks quite mixed and often rather mild. With that said I wonder if we could see a brief colder interlude coinciding with Christmas day itself.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Starting to look a bit zonal that. one day mild, the next cold Swinging from +5 to -5 uppers

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

+1

Russwirral
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 13:20:17

#33

06z GFS ENS for Manchester all over the place. Anything seems possible! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0

Originally Posted by: Gary L

Yesterday they seemed a bit more scattered towards a colder theme.. seems thats swung back the other way today

Alot of uncertainty in everything that is uncertain at the moment... if that makes any sense... 😃

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

Taylor1740
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 13:25:33

#34

I think we can now definitively say that there is no chance of a cold spell over the Xmas period. We will have to hope January surprises us with something.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

16 December 2022 13:26:51

#35

Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day.

Originally Posted by: Gary L

On the TWO grid point for Manchester 45% are at or below -5C and 3% at or below -10C.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=06&fv=tmp850&loc=manchester&lat=53.5&lon=-2.5&p=&cty=

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Joe Bloggs
Guest

16 December 2022 13:33:46

#36

I think we can now definitively say that there is no chance of a cold spell over the Xmas period. We will have to hope January surprises us with something.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740

Totally disagree. A number of runs have shown a cold vs mild battle with snow for central areas.

Mild looks most likely but there is nothing definitive about it.

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 13:46:48

#37

Maybe my eyes are off today but I make it about 1/3 of the members < -5c on xmas day.

Originally Posted by: Gary L

I must have been looking at a cached pic - sorry

(in which case the 6z ens are an improvement on the one I was seeing 😆)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

BJBlake
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 13:58:37

#38

It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.

Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL

Taylor1740
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 14:21:07

#39

It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake

yes it also confuses me why the BBC are always so 'confident' in mild weather in the longer range in these situations even when the models might suggest otherwise. Unfortunately this time it looks like their mild rhetoric will be correct.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl

picturesareme
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 14:34:53

#40

It’s just one run in a flip flop period of uncertainty - but the BBC are calling it for mild to be sustained for 5 days...on the 1pm forecast... Not sure what they are taking as sufficiently definitive to make a call, but of course, it is the default position. However, personally, I would not be at all surprised to see a flip flop again the other way - back to a colder outcome or at least mixed, with the Uk being the common battleground between warm and cold air. The north Midlands seems to be the new M4 corridor - for such battles.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake

As to is the met office automated forecast. High of 12C still next Thursday here with an overnight lows of 9C.

Downpour
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 14:44:05

#41

Looks mild for the vast majority in the reliable. What happens thereafter remains up for grabs however.

Chingford

London E4

147ft

moomin75
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 15:13:53

#42

Looks mild for the vast majority in the reliable. What happens thereafter remains up for grabs however.

Originally Posted by: Downpour

I would agree with that, but I'm not going to go any further.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Russwirral
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 15:17:28

#43

We're now reaching the model runs where if it doesnt start appearing consistently soon, then its a bust. too much flip flopping - which from experience only has one outcome - the mild one.

Either show us some more tittilation, or its a bust IMO.

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

Joe Bloggs
Guest

16 December 2022 15:26:54

#44

ICON first out.

The battle of the blocks!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU12_144_1.png

fairweather
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 15:54:29

#45

Hopefully this upcoming cold spell doesn't wipe out the snow cover in Sacandinavia and NW Europe. This has been more extensive this year at this stage than in recent winters. Always useful if we do get a North Easterly. Nature is not always a reliable forecaster but we tend to see bigger flocks of Redwings and Fieldwares in colder winters and this spell has brought massive flocks to the snow covered parts of the S.E.

S.Essex, 42m ASL

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 16:25:12

#46

12z out to +168 markedly similar to the 6z in terms of the UK'ish wider region. Angles the low to our NNE slightly differently, which changes the shape of the finger of very cold air coming in from the NNW. On the 6z, it's repulsed by the development of the next Atlantic turd that plonks its malevolent arse down to our SW and pumps mild crap northwards; on the 12z, it's sadly the same end result.

Fecking heights over mainland Europe/Med again. Stiffs us every sodding time. Ideally need the lows to be crashing through mainland Europe and reports of persistent rain across Spain/Southern France/Italy/Balkans.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 16:32:15

#47

By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland.

Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy.

Where's the sick bowl?

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

doctormog
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 16:42:44

#48

Still fine margins in the output this evening and given the timescale until Christmas it is far too soon to say with any confidence what to expect. Before then a couple more cold days then a transition to significantly milder weather for 2 or 3 days. After that around day 5 confidence would have to be low for another few days I think.

As things stand northern parts look chilly on Christmas Day itself with some snow around but milder further south. That could however all change over the coming days.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS)

+1

moomin75
Advanced Member

16 December 2022 16:44:53

#49

By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland. Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy. Where's the sick bowl?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

No surprise for me. It will be another typically green, damp, mild squib of a Christmas, just like we experience nearly every year.In my 46 years on this planet, I have not witnessed a single white Christmas, and the 2010 December, I was in Australia, so missed all the fun and games!I still think the next cold chase will be in the New Year, and a couple of weeks at least.Our hope remains, as the atmosphere is not in its normal winter state.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL