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Downpour
16 December 2022 14:44:05
Looks mild for the vast majority in the reliable. What happens thereafter remains up for grabs however. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
16 December 2022 15:13:53

Looks mild for the vast majority in the reliable. What happens thereafter remains up for grabs however.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

I would agree with that, but I'm not going to go any further. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Russwirral
16 December 2022 15:17:28
We're now reaching the model runs where if it doesnt start appearing consistently soon, then its a bust.  too much flip flopping - which from experience only has one outcome - the mild one.

Either show us some more tittilation, or its a bust IMO.
Joe Bloggs
16 December 2022 15:26:54
ICON first out. 

The battle of the blocks! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU12_144_1.png 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

fairweather
16 December 2022 15:54:29
Hopefully this upcoming cold spell doesn't wipe out the snow cover in Sacandinavia and NW Europe. This has been more extensive this year at this stage than in recent winters. Always useful if we do get a North Easterly. Nature is not always a reliable forecaster but we tend to see bigger flocks of Redwings and Fieldwares in colder winters and this spell has brought massive flocks to the snow covered parts of the S.E.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
16 December 2022 16:25:12
12z out to +168 markedly similar to the 6z in terms of the UK'ish wider region. Angles the low to our NNE slightly differently, which changes the shape of the finger of very cold air coming in from the NNW. On the 6z, it's repulsed by the development of the next Atlantic turd that plonks its malevolent arse down to our SW and pumps mild crap northwards; on the 12z, it's sadly the same end result.

Fecking heights over mainland Europe/Med again. Stiffs us every sodding time. Ideally need the lows to be crashing through mainland Europe and reports of persistent rain across Spain/Southern France/Italy/Balkans.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
16 December 2022 16:32:15
By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland.

Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy.

Where's the sick bowl?

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
doctormog
16 December 2022 16:42:44
Still fine margins in the output this evening and given the timescale until Christmas it is far too soon to say with any confidence what to expect. Before then a couple more cold days then a transition to significantly milder weather for 2 or 3 days. After that around day 5 confidence would have to be low for another few days I think. 

As things stand northern parts look chilly on Christmas Day itself with some snow around but milder further south. That could however all change over the coming days.
moomin75
16 December 2022 16:44:53

By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland. Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy. Where's the sick bowl?  

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

No surprise for me. It will be another typically green, damp, mild squib of a Christmas, just like we experience nearly every year.​​​​​​​In my 46 years on this planet, I have not witnessed a single white Christmas, and the 2010 December, I was in Australia, so missed all the fun and games!​​​​​​​I still think the next cold chase will be in the New Year, and a couple of weeks at least.​​​​​​​Our hope remains, as the atmosphere is not in its normal winter state.    
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Saint Snow
16 December 2022 16:45:29
The 12z is turning rapidly into a proper shitshow (unless you're in Scotland)


Find the route back to a sustained cold and snowy set-up from this... 😣

UserPostedImage 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=246&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3 

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
16 December 2022 17:01:41

12z out to +168 markedly similar to the 6z in terms of the UK'ish wider region. Angles the low to our NNE slightly differently, which changes the shape of the finger of very cold air coming in from the NNW. On the 6z, it's repulsed by the development of the next Atlantic turd that plonks its malevolent arse down to our SW and pumps mild crap northwards; on the 12z, it's sadly the same end result.

Fecking heights over mainland Europe/Med again. Stiffs us every sodding time. Ideally need the lows to be crashing through mainland Europe and reports of persistent rain across Spain/Southern France/Italy/Balkans.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Should be wet there now as it winter time not summer time for HP to sit around for ages.  
Joe Bloggs
16 December 2022 17:03:17
This absolutely needs watching. A smidgeon further south could result in a major Christmas snowfall for central areas, akin to the 18z last night. Fine margins. 

Unlikely but the risk is there. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_186_1.png 

 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Jiries
16 December 2022 17:09:23

This absolutely needs watching. A smidgeon further south could result in a major snowfall for central areas, akin to the 18z last night. Fine margins. 

Unlikely but the risk is there. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_186_1.png 

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Being 8 days away give time to correct south as they do often.

Are you aware that there some snow coming down here tomorrow morning after a hard cold frost tonight?  It appeared on the apps showing snowing from 7am to 10am.   Can't be trusted with it but why it appeared? Any short range model showing it? Thought will be dry tomorrow with some sunshine and clouds increaseing during the day.
Joe Bloggs
16 December 2022 17:09:38

By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland.

Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy.

Where's the sick bowl?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Did you see the 18z GFS last night? It showed the mother of all snow storms for our region on Christmas Eve.

More recent runs have not removed the risk and there is a clear trend of a low pushing through the UK with some very cold air on its northern flank around Christmas time. The latest run shows the Central belt of Scotland as the snow zone but the risk could move further south.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Joe Bloggs
16 December 2022 17:15:09

Being 8 days away give time to correct south as they do often.

Are you aware that there some snow coming down here tomorrow morning after a hard cold frost tonight?  It appeared on the apps showing snowing from 7am to 10am.   Can't be trusted with it but why it appeared? Any short range model showing it? Thought will be dry tomorrow with some sunshine and clouds increaseing during the day.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Hello 🙂 , yes there is some precipitation moving in tomorrow. Sadly there’s a maritime influence with it so (in this region) anyway , looks like rain or sleet, before the big mild push on Sunday. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

moomin75
16 December 2022 17:23:10
Good grief that 12z GFS really does spell the end. Horrendous for collies, utterly depressing and definitely no quick way back.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
picturesareme
16 December 2022 17:28:27

Good grief that 12z GFS really does spell the end. Horrendous for collies, utterly depressing and definitely no quick way back.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



From my experience collies love rain & mud.
moomin75
16 December 2022 17:34:22

From my experience collies love rain & mud.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Haha. Bloody auto correct. 😂😂🌧 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
White Meadows
16 December 2022 17:34:30
Looking dire for coldies (not collies) for the foreseeable. 

A sleety couple of hours followed by a few frosts makes this a very unforgettable cold spell here. 

Bring on the daffodils!!
 
doctormog
16 December 2022 17:42:09
Here  is the 12z GEFS ensemble mean chart for Christmas Day:

UserPostedImage
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