Looks mild for the vast majority in the reliable. What happens thereafter remains up for grabs however. 

---

Looks mild for the vast majority in the reliable. What happens thereafter remains up for grabs however.

I would agree with that, but I'm not going to go any further. 

---

We're now reaching the model runs where if it doesnt start appearing consistently soon, then its a bust.  too much flip flopping - which from experience only has one outcome - the mild one.

Either show us some more tittilation, or its a bust IMO.

---

ICON first out. 

The battle of the blocks! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU12_144_1.png 

---

Hopefully this upcoming cold spell doesn't wipe out the snow cover in Sacandinavia and NW Europe. This has been more extensive this year at this stage than in recent winters. Always useful if we do get a North Easterly. Nature is not always a reliable forecaster but we tend to see bigger flocks of Redwings and Fieldwares in colder winters and this spell has brought massive flocks to the snow covered parts of the S.E.

---

12z out to +168 markedly similar to the 6z in terms of the UK'ish wider region. Angles the low to our NNE slightly differently, which changes the shape of the finger of very cold air coming in from the NNW. On the 6z, it's repulsed by the development of the next Atlantic turd that plonks its malevolent arse down to our SW and pumps mild crap northwards; on the 12z, it's sadly the same end result.

Fecking heights over mainland Europe/Med again. Stiffs us every sodding time. Ideally need the lows to be crashing through mainland Europe and reports of persistent rain across Spain/Southern France/Italy/Balkans.

 

---

By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland.

Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy.

Where's the sick bowl?

 

---

Still fine margins in the output this evening and given the timescale until Christmas it is far too soon to say with any confidence what to expect. Before then a couple more cold days then a transition to significantly milder weather for 2 or 3 days. After that around day 5 confidence would have to be low for another few days I think. 

As things stand northern parts look chilly on Christmas Day itself with some snow around but milder further south. That could however all change over the coming days.

---

By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland. Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy. Where's the sick bowl?  

No surprise for me. It will be another typically green, damp, mild squib of a Christmas, just like we experience nearly every year.​​​​​​​In my 46 years on this planet, I have not witnessed a single white Christmas, and the 2010 December, I was in Australia, so missed all the fun and games!​​​​​​​I still think the next cold chase will be in the New Year, and a couple of weeks at least.​​​​​​​Our hope remains, as the atmosphere is not in its normal winter state.    

---

The 12z is turning rapidly into a proper shitshow (unless you're in Scotland)


Find the route back to a sustained cold and snowy set-up from this... 😣

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=246&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3 

 

---

12z out to +168 markedly similar to the 6z in terms of the UK'ish wider region. Angles the low to our NNE slightly differently, which changes the shape of the finger of very cold air coming in from the NNW. On the 6z, it's repulsed by the development of the next Atlantic turd that plonks its malevolent arse down to our SW and pumps mild crap northwards; on the 12z, it's sadly the same end result.

Fecking heights over mainland Europe/Med again. Stiffs us every sodding time. Ideally need the lows to be crashing through mainland Europe and reports of persistent rain across Spain/Southern France/Italy/Balkans.

 

Should be wet there now as it winter time not summer time for HP to sit around for ages.  

This absolutely needs watching. A smidgeon further south could result in a major Christmas snowfall for central areas, akin to the 18z last night. Fine margins. 

Unlikely but the risk is there. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_186_1.png 

 

---

This absolutely needs watching. A smidgeon further south could result in a major snowfall for central areas, akin to the 18z last night. Fine margins. 

Unlikely but the risk is there. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_186_1.png 

 

Being 8 days away give time to correct south as they do often.

Are you aware that there some snow coming down here tomorrow morning after a hard cold frost tonight?  It appeared on the apps showing snowing from 7am to 10am.   Can't be trusted with it but why it appeared? Any short range model showing it? Thought will be dry tomorrow with some sunshine and clouds increaseing during the day.

By Xmas Eve, the -5c 850 line is pretty much the Scottish border. The -10c just south of Shetland.

Problem is, that low to our S/SW seems to have moved in for Xmas. Unless it shifts its unwelcome ass - and per both the 6z and 12z, that's not going to happen - Xmas in E&W will be crap from a weather perspective: wet, mild (7-10c maxes away from the far north of England), windy.

Where's the sick bowl?

 

Did you see the 18z GFS last night? It showed the mother of all snow storms for our region on Christmas Eve.

More recent runs have not removed the risk and there is a clear trend of a low pushing through the UK with some very cold air on its northern flank around Christmas time. The latest run shows the Central belt of Scotland as the snow zone but the risk could move further south.

---

Being 8 days away give time to correct south as they do often.

Are you aware that there some snow coming down here tomorrow morning after a hard cold frost tonight?  It appeared on the apps showing snowing from 7am to 10am.   Can't be trusted with it but why it appeared? Any short range model showing it? Thought will be dry tomorrow with some sunshine and clouds increaseing during the day.

Hello 🙂 , yes there is some precipitation moving in tomorrow. Sadly there’s a maritime influence with it so (in this region) anyway , looks like rain or sleet, before the big mild push on Sunday. 

---

Good grief that 12z GFS really does spell the end. Horrendous for collies, utterly depressing and definitely no quick way back.

---

Good grief that 12z GFS really does spell the end. Horrendous for collies, utterly depressing and definitely no quick way back.

From my experience collies love rain & mud.

From my experience collies love rain & mud.

Haha. Bloody auto correct. 😂😂🌧 

---

Looking dire for coldies (not collies) for the foreseeable. 

A sleety couple of hours followed by a few frosts makes this a very unforgettable cold spell here. 

Bring on the daffodils!!
 

Here  is the 12z GEFS ensemble mean chart for Christmas Day:

---