Mildest winters on record are normally very wet and stormy as well. 

Winter 1988/9 says hello. 

ECM 12Z going down the unsettled route.

Just as GFS came onboard. But it’s not that bad, and pressure building long term.

GEFS getting warmer again. Little rain aswell.a growing trend 

GEFS getting warmer again. Little rain aswell.a growing trend 

 

Pretty sure we will see continued warmth for another month in patches, but a lot more rain too.

It's a fairly dry outlier Ally, and with ECM looking a bit more unsettled, I think its anyone's guess after the heatwave dies out early next week.

Pretty sure we will see continued warmth for another month in patches, but a lot more rain too.

I think most places will see some rain next week.  But August looks likely atm to end very warm and dry again. Another heatwave to end August wouldn't surprise me. 

It's a fairly dry outlier Ally, and with ECM looking a bit more unsettled, I think its anyone's guess after the heatwave dies out early next week.

Pretty sure we will see continued warmth for another month in patches, but a lot more rain too.

The ensembles are your friend Moomin. The 35 dayers have  been consistently showing settled weather long term, and the main models all show pressure rising to between 1015 and 1020hPa from a week’s time to the end of the runs. That says settled weather in late August. 

And now the ensembles all show consistently warmer than average uppers too.

Contrast this with early August 2018: all the long term ensembles were going unsettled, as were the Met Office mid rangers, despite the ongoing warm weather. And hey presto, the Augustcweather turned crap.

One more heatwave to come this summer I fancy. 

ECM ens mean day 10 looks warm and dry for the south

It's a fairly dry outlier Ally, and with ECM looking a bit more unsettled, I think its anyone's guess after the heatwave dies out early next week.

Pretty sure we will see continued warmth for another month in patches, but a lot more rain too.

We could really do with some rain but I’ll believe it when I see it. We had rain forecast after the last heat wave but it didn’t really materialise. 

We had some very light drizzly stuff here-doubt it even registered on rain gauges.

We could really do with some rain but I’ll believe it when I see it. We had rain forecast after the last heat wave but it didn’t really materialise. 

It's becoming the norm now for rain in summer to be as rare as snow in winter. 

UKMO and GFS looking similar, not that much rain for areas that need it, SE rain shield in operation perhaps

Indeed. Dry - if not very dry - remains the form horse for SE England. Desert like conditions and screwed gardens for the foreseeable in the most populous region of the UK.

 

Still some useful rain in the coming days, but the 12z nowhere near as cool  and unsettled as the 6z was.

Even Witney is parched, Kieron. Truly the end of days. 

 

It's becoming the norm now for rain in summer to be as rare as snow in winter. 

Indeed. A wild goose chase. We need a Minister for Drought.

 

The ensembles are your friend Moomin. The 35 dayers have  been consistently showing settled weather long term, and the main models all show pressure rising to between 1015 and 1020hPa from a week’s time to the end of the runs. That says settled weather in late August. 

And now the ensembles all show consistently warmer than average uppers too.

Contrast this with early August 2018: all the long term ensembles were going unsettled, as were the Met Office mid rangers, despite the ongoing warm weather. And hey presto, the Augustcweather turned crap.

One more heatwave to come this summer I fancy. 

Luckily over the next couple of weeks it’ll become harder and harder to reach the mid 30s, as nights become increasingly long. This current heatwave is the last hurrah of the extreme heat.

 

Luckily over the next couple of weeks it’ll become harder and harder to reach the mid 30s, as nights become increasingly long. This current heatwave is the last hurrah of the extreme heat.

There is still around 4 weeks for mid 30's to be reached - it can happen in September.

13 September is the lastest mid 30's have been recorded - 34.4C

27th September the latest 30C had been reached - 30.7C. 

 

 We need a Minister for Drought.

We do have Nadine Dorries as Minister for Bullsh"t

 

There is still around 4 weeks for mid 30's to be reached - it can happen in September.

13 September is the lastest mid 30's have been recorded - 34.4C

27th September the latest 30C had been reached - 30.7C. 

 

 

It can, but the set up has to be more and more perfect for it to happen. It gets harder and harder to achieve the further towards September we go.

I'd put money on this current spell being the last time this year we have widespread mid 30s across the country. Whichever way you slice it, the best of summer is behind us and the sun is now approaching 10 degrees less in altitude compared to early July... the day shadows are lengthening.

Roll on autumn.

GFS modelling 33C for the S coast on 25th August. Likely a settled warm outlier, but the trend does seem to be towards renewed ridging.

As long the temperatures in Sept is 20-30C plus days that keep the cold out and heating off. Still some posters really desperate for cold weather or end of summer early but not read the news about the heating bills will hit them hard.   If we can get Sept 1991 type, October 1995, November 1994 and Dec 1988 to keep heating low but if we get snow that welcome as long the temps are subzero and then straight back to over 10C if no snow around rather than 2-5C days.  Models show just 22C here this coming week then go up again so that keeping indoors temperatures stable at mid to high 20's next week during the cool down spell.  Plus now with lower sun the ray entering the house come to effect more warmer than June little sunlight ray inside.