Trending settled and hotter for England and Wales after this week's showery 'hit and miss' breakdown that drops temperatures back down to the mid 20's for a few of days. The signal is actually fairly strong for the end of the month given the range on the GEFS. 

Some places will avoid the rain altogether. 

This is the 10 day accumulated rainfall.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/240h.htm

 

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The GFS and in particular ECM look pretty wet for western and southern parts of Scotland in the coming week with things a bit more hit and miss elsewhere.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20220819-1200z.html 

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Very warm and mainly dry would sum this up.

 

 

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https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20220819-1200z.html 

Noticeable that for the S half of Britain and the nearby continent that rain is concentrated over the land; very little over the sea. To me, that says thunderstorms.

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Noticeable that for the S half of Britain and the nearby continent that rain is concentrated over the land; very little over the sea. To me, that says thunderstorms.

Yes that’s a good point and likely to be the case I would guess. Further north and west, as well as the upcoming convective stuff I think there will be a few fronts too.

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Truly a zombie summer (as someone has already christened it); each time a heat wave is forecast to decay it pops up again, as strongly as ever. Two days ago, and yesterday (when I looked but didn't have time to comment) cooler patches on the WX summaries were appearing in W Europe and some cool/cold air was approaching from the NE; and Britain was forecast to have plenty of rain.

Now (at least for these GFS based charts; but see Dr mog's ECM take above) the heat is back for the next two weeks across W Europe and quite far N in Britain; there's a heat bulge up to Finland in week 1 and although this flattens out in week 2, the higher temps press on into Russia. Rain is patchy, here and there in week 1, but in week 2 as has so often been the case banished to the far north, plus a bit over the Alps, and a very dry area developing along the coastal countries of W Europe.

GFS Op: pressure generally high for Britain today but that long-forecast shallow LP drifts NE from Brittany to the N Sea by Wed 17th, after which pressure ridges back in from the SW, not altogether convincingly as occasional LPs move past NW Scotland and LP over France is from time to time more active. The final chart for Mon 29th (a BH of course) shows a general drop in pressure as these two elements get together

GEFS: temps back down to norm for week beginning Wed 17th with a reasonable amount of rain in most ens members, but for the week following, back to warm and dry in the S while for Scotland esp the NW the mean temp in this week stays near norm and the rain continues in significant amounts.

ECM: makes rather more of the LP at the beginning of next week, and then later on emphasises the Atlantic LP with NW-lies on many days esp Mon 22nd with LP 995mb Rockall and trough to SE affecting all of Britain

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GEFS P19 is our ticket to a guaranteed first 20C CET month, smashing July 2006.

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GEFS P19 is our ticket to a guaranteed first 20C CET month, smashing July 2006.

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A warm but wet week coming up if the 6z is right.

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A warm but wet week coming up if the 6z is right.

Pretty much identical to many previous runs. We have different definitions of “wet”

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Pretty much identical to many previous runs. We have different definitions of “wet”

Warm though, which has stayed pretty consistent.

In terms of "wet" still looks more convective than frontal, so some will get a deluge and others may stay largely dry. 

I think though, everyone will see some wet weather next week.

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Warm though, which has stayed pretty consistent.

In terms of "wet" still looks more convective than frontal, so some will get a deluge and others may stay largely dry. 

I think though, everyone will see some wet weather next week.

Possibly, although I’d imagine some places will stay dry, such is the nature

Summer looks far from done still. Well it is only mid August

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Last time we had low pressure i thought Somerset was going to have a soaking however in Cheddar we got nothing, The mendip hills above Cheddar have turned brown. I think its browner than in 1995 because in the Cheddar valley we got just enough rain in intervals to keep it on the green side.

 

Possibly, although I’d imagine some places will stay dry, such is the nature

Summer looks far from done still. Well it is only mid August

If it wasn't a problem with statistics the summer in the UK could be turned into a 4 month season. September increasingly is AINO. 

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Warm though, which has stayed pretty consistent.

In terms of "wet" still looks more convective than frontal, so some will get a deluge and others may stay largely dry. 

I think though, everyone will see some wet weather next week.

Let us pray. I have just returned from a week in the West Country to find my garden completely screwed. Suspect there’s more than a soupçon of jam tomorrow from the models as per. 

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If it wasn't a problem with statistics the summer in the UK could be turned into a 4 month season. September increasingly is AINO. 

Indeed so Brian. Hence why the wise among us use the traditional measure of the astronomical summer. But, I dare say opening that particular can of worms might be unwelcome fodder. 

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Indeed so Brian. Hence why the wise among us use the traditional measure of the astronomical summer. But, I dare say opening that particular can of worms might be unwelcome fodder. 

I would be tempted to trim winter to 2 months in the north and 6 weeks in the south. 

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If the GFS 6Z happened to be right, we'd surely be on course for the warmest August on record? With that run, we remain generally warm next week with cooler air never really making an inroads, before turning very hot again for the Late Summer BH weekend.

The only caveat with the second half of August is the nights are getting longer, so even under a hot air mass (especially one that's dry too) they can be quite cool. Still the maxima would surely be enough to secure a new record (1995 was 19.1°C).

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I would be tempted to trim winter to 2 months in the north and 6 weeks in the south. 

Agreed - 20 Feb to 1 April :)

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I would be tempted to trim winter to 2 months in the north and 6 weeks in the south. 

If statistics were irrelevant. Could trim actual Winter weather to about 2 weeks at best IMBY.