If the GFS 6Z happened to be right, we'd surely be on course for the warmest August on record? With that run, we remain generally warm next week with cooler air never really making an inroads, before turning very hot again for the Late Summer BH weekend.

The only caveat with the second half of August is the nights are getting longer, so even under a hot air mass (especially one that's dry too) they can be quite cool. Still the maxima would surely be enough to secure a new record (1995 was 19.1°C).

Indeed I was hoping for some rain at last this coming week. But getting less and less likely as it draws closer. With a few mm at best likely and a few "cooler" days before its back to high 20s low 30s

 

If it wasn't a problem with statistics the summer in the UK could be turned into a 4 month season. September increasingly is AINO. 

if you look at the record temps for each day of the year, the first half of September is much, much hotter than the first half of June. 

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I consider September to be part of the modern summer now and generally holiday in the UK for a couple of weeks during the month. It’s a lovely month.

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This evening’s runs so far looking like a downgrade. More Northwesterly, the low digs in more.

EDIT: scratch that, GFS is OK, just ICON that’s worse.

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I would be tempted to trim winter to 2 months in the north and 6 weeks in the south. 

6 weeks?   That's very generous.  6 days more like ....  

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Post heatwave maxes not at all bad. From Tuesday: 28, 25, 24, 25, 25, 26, 27, 29. Like a legendary May hot spell.

Getting hotter from 24th onwards.

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6 weeks?   That's very generous.  6 days more like ....  

6 hours.

BBC Weather For The Week Ahead now suggesting a possible warm up after next week. Wednesday looks like the only day with significant rain in the forecast for this part of the world.

Going by the poor performance of UKV recently (e.g. yesterday IMBY a forecast of 24C in the 0z run becomes 29C by the 12z run), I wonder whether there'll actually be any colder than average conditions down here in the next couple of weeks.

The textbooks would tell you that the average max here is 22C in August (itself up a degree from the old 61-90 averages), but the coldest so far is 23.8C. In fact there's only been one colder than average day since the 1st July and even that was only 0.6C below average!

It seems the adage of a "add a few degrees" applies as much in the summer now as it does in the winter.

 

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'Hit-and-miss' thunderstorm yellow warning for Monday for everywhere S of the Great Glen. Then on Tuesday, the area is reduced to England and Wales, and even so, excluding England SE of a line from Isle of Wight to the Wash.

Looks like another breakdown of a really hot spell without the traditional flash and bang.

 

Meanwhile, where are the hurricanes? It is supposed to be a particularly active season (and the Pacific is now up to H) - we could do with one or two crossing the Atlantic to import some moisture from the Caribbean.

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'Hit-and-miss' thunderstorm yellow warning for Monday for everywhere S of the Great Glen. Then on Tuesday, the area is reduced to England and Wales, and even so, excluding England SE of a line from Isle of Wight to the Wash.

Looks like another breakdown of a really hot spell without the traditional flash and bang.

 

Meanwhile, where are the hurricanes? It is supposed to be a particularly active season (and the Pacific is now up to H) - we could do with one or two crossing the Atlantic to import some moisture from the Caribbean.

Wait till late September … with the heat of the SSTs around our coast any Hurricanes might visit our shores in a manner which we don’t want to set any new records about.

 

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if you look at the record temps for each day of the year, the first half of September is much, much hotter than the first half of June. 

Astronomical summer!  

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Astronomical summer!  

The wise man’s measure - September is indeed more of a summer month than June (which is chiefly late spring).

Meanwhile, the models suggest any breakdown will be a fairly dry squib. 

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https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20220816-2300z.html 

I suspect it will be an outlier in that specific detail but possibly not in the overall pattern.

Edit: in fact the 24 total to midday 9n Wednesday is remarkable: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9e1d558eccd89aebc169befc1f1f34c9/precipitation-total/20220816-2300z.html 

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I recall when I ran some stats before that the warmest 91 day period, on average, is from the 3rd week of June to the end of the 2nd week in September. 

However, despite how warm early September can be, no way does it compare to the real summer dazzle of late May or early June, in my opinion at least. 

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Astronomical summer!  

I go with the meteorological seasons personally. Whilst early September can be warmer than a good part of June, I tend to judge the seasons on more than just temperatures.

For me, early September has a completely different feel to early June. The sun is much lower and weaker, the days are much shorter and nature has that tired and weary look. Contrast that to early June when you have the night-long twilight, a searing sun and plants in full and fresh growth. It's safe to say that I think June has much more of a "summer" feel to it.

It's the same with early March. Whilst it's often colder and snowier than early December, it just doesn't have that same wintry feel to it. The sun is getting stronger, the days getting longer and the daffodils and crocuses are pushing through the soil. Whereas in December, everything is gloomy and dark, with only the Christmas lights brightening things up a bit.

Just my view as there's really no way we can all truly define the beginnings and ends of seasons. Mother Nature after all will decide when summer ends and autumn begins.

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High pressure builds in significantly 168+ on the ECM. 

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The deluge in places on Tuesday into Wednesday on the ECM 12z are probably a decent representation of the potential described in the Met Office warning. I suspect there will be some flooding issues around in places in the coming days.

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High pressure builds in significantly 168+ on the ECM. 

That good so that there more support and trends for HP to return quickly and hope to extend to September.

 

That good so that there more support and trends for HP to return quickly and hope to extend to September.

Yes by day 10 its heatwave territory again 

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