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Normal heat returns in the south to end the month. Should get to 30 easily
Azores high pushing back in again after the unsettled spell
A growing theme this morning.
GFS has ramped the heat up a bit more. Max temps from Thursday of 35, 36, 37, 37, 35.As Brian pointed out in a tweet, 35C is hotter than any day in the whole of the 1980s, and now we have five in a row modelled.
An outside chance of reaching 100F in two separate spells of weather almost a month apart.
If the 06z verifies then surely this summer will end up at the top of the league? Even better than 95 and 76?
But for the south I mean
Looking at energy prices, we need the Azores high to stick around all winter as well!
GFS has ramped the heat up a bit more. Max temps from Thursday of 35, 36, 37, 37, 35.As Brian pointed out in a tweet, 35C is hotter than any day in the whole of the 1980s, and now we have five in a row modelled. An outside chance of reaching 100F in two separate spells of weather almost a month apart.
If the next few years time from hotter trends we would see 100F in early September plus June at some point.
I think better for the Atlantic to fire up all winter and turn those wind turbines round
Totally agreed especially Oct like 1995 did.
If the 06z verifies then surely this summer will end up at the top of the league? Even better than 95 and 76?But for the south I mean
One characteristic of this summer has been how regionalised the persistent good weather has been.
Many other regions (away from the W/N of Scotland) have had a decent summer with some very good spells, but the periods between the very good spells has been a bit 'meh' for most, but the SE quadrant has had better 'in between' weather.
The coolish nights in June I think will cost us the chance to beat 76 which got a huge June head start. Quite likely to be a hotter July-August than 1976 or 2018 and on a par - if something like 06z verifies - with July-Aug 1995 which was the daddy of school holiday heatwaves.
Moderate SW Winds and mild nights would be better.
Who am I kidding though, I still want cold and snow.
In terms of absolute maximum temperatures we are a long way behind 2018.By this stage of the summer in 2018 we had had 24 days with a max of 30C or higher, of which 2 were 35C+. This year we have had 10 days of 30C+ with 2 of them 35C+ (both of which were 38+ and one of course was over 40!)However, 2018 tailed off rapidly from this point and much of late August was rather cool.
Just remember this one. The hot August of 2003 fizzled out in the last 2 weeks of the month.The heatwave of 1976 ended with a washout August Bank Holiday.Hot spells can run into September . 2006 did that we had a hot July an iffy August - But September 2006 turned on the heat.The summer of 1959 had a record dry September and even some heat in October.
Just remember this one. The hot August of 2003 fizzled out in the last 2 weeks of the month.
The heatwave of 1976 ended with a washout August Bank Holiday.
Hot spells can run into September . 2006 did that we had a hot July an iffy August - But September 2006 turned on the heat.
The summer of 1959 had a record dry September and even some heat in October.
The Summer of 1976 did indeed end abruptly at August Bank Holiday, and September was a very unsettled and wet month. I seem to recall a Minister of Drought was going to be in place at that time.
Dennis Howell was actually in post and then it started raining a week later.
The appointment provoked much public mirth, but in true Brummie style, the Lozells-born MP responded by inviting reporters to his then Moseley home where he revealed the solution to water rationing was sharing the bath with his wife! [Birmingham Mail]
Then in 1978-9 he was appointed Minister for Snow
Much cooler GFS this time, but not too much rain in the SE
UKMO hard to say
It's looking increasingly likely from the models that we may finally be having the classic August that many summer lovers have been wishing for for many years. Already this spell of settled weather will make it the best August since 2003 for the UK as a whole, but if the heat returns later on it will surely make it the best since 1995.This is certainly going to be a summer for the history books, I think. Not up there with persistence, but the heat waves have been spectacular, especially if we see another 37/38°C at the end of this week.
If GFS 12Z op run verifies it would spoil August a bit though!
Also slightly "cooler" this week, if you can call 4 days of 35C cooler!
Much cooler GFS this time, but not too much rain in the SEUKMO hard to say
Good to see the conversation back on the models.
12z looks as if it lacks the optimism of a late August recharge, as some have said.