Good to see the conversation back on the models.

12z looks as if it lacks the optimism of a late August recharge, as some have said.

I think the best indicator for later recharges is the ensemble SLP. If the average goes up to and stays confortably above 1015hPa then we’re in good shape for a recharge, even if the 850s don’t show much.

Last couple of GFS ensembles had SLP around 1017hPa from the 20th. ECM and GEM a bit lower bur still a bounce back. This evening GEFS is at 1014hPa on the 20th, so it’s looking less rebuildy than 06z, but still heading up.

---

It's looking increasingly likely from the models that we may finally be having the classic August that many summer lovers have been wishing for for many years. Already this spell of settled weather will make it the best August since 2003 for the UK as a whole, but if the heat returns later on it will surely make it the best since 1995.

This is certainly going to be a summer for the history books, I think. Not up there with persistence, but the heat waves have been spectacular, especially if we see another 37/38°C at the end of this week.

It’s often the case, when we have good weather in July, it turns in time for school holidays, then we get a decent September when they go back. I thought after the record heatwave, we were getting a repeat, as we had a few days of cloud here, but it’s turned again for the better. 

---

I must have been looking at cached charts as the 12Z GFS isn't actually cooler for this week/weekend.
From tomorrow the maxima are 33, 34, 36, 36, 38, 35.

In any other year this place would be going mental with that forecast but this year it's all a bit "so what"!

Sunday could be one of the top 5 hottest days ever recorded and nobody is really paying much attention after the 40C excitement of July.

If Sunday does reach 38C then 3 of the top 5 will have been this year, and 5 of the top 6 since 2019!

---

I must have been looking at cached charts as the 12Z GFS isn't actually cooler for this week/weekend.
From tomorrow the maxima are 33, 34, 36, 36, 38, 35.

In any other year this place would be going mental with that forecast but this year it's all a bit "so what"!

Sunday could be one of the top 5 hottest days ever recorded and nobody is really paying much attention after the 40C excitement of July.

If Sunday does reach 38C then 3 of the top 5 will have been this year, and 5 of the top 6 since 2019!

 Heat fatigue!  It’s probably because we’re no longer watching for records to be broken.  Although we could actually get the two top temperatures within the same summer!  

---

GEM is a bit of a shocker for next week.
ECM also fairly LP dominated but a much shallower and slacker trough. Either way it looks a lot less summery than this week.

---

GEM is a bit of a shocker for next week.
ECM also fairly LP dominated but a much shallower and slacker trough. Either way it looks a lot less summery than this week.

Yup, the Moomin holiday curse strikes.

Guaranteed to bring rain.

---

 

Yup, the Moomin holiday curse strikes.

Guaranteed to bring rain.

Indeed. Guaranteed like this summer was a guaranteed washout….

---

 

Indeed. Guaranteed like this summer was a guaranteed washout….

Are you suggesting it doesn't look unsettled next week?

I've already accepted what a twonk I was to call a poor summer, but as it stands, next week just looks cooler and unsettled, which, although very much needed, is typical for me!

---

It’s often the case, when we have good weather in July, it turns in time for school holidays, then we get a decent September when they go back. I thought after the record heatwave, we were getting a repeat, as we had a few days of cloud here, but it’s turned again for the better. 

Not sure it is “often the case” TBH. The weather gets worse for the school holidays is a TWO cliche backed up by little if any evidence! 

---

 

Not sure it is “often the case” TBH. The weather gets worse for the school holidays is a TWO cliche backed up by little if any evidence! 

I think you're right. There is a perception that it gets worse for the school holidays, largely because a few recent Augusts haven't been great.

But I remember many amazing school summer holidays as a kid, and ultimately August is a summer month, and can be really hot, as the upcoming spell is proving.

 

---

 

Not sure it is “often the case” TBH. The weather gets worse for the school holidays is a TWO cliche backed up by little if any evidence! 

 Yes, I know this has been said before, although not just a TWO cliché, I often hear it said.   Maybe it just seems that way.  A bit like talking to people abroad who think it always rains in the UK, because that’s what they’ve heard from us so many times.

---

Are you suggesting it doesn't look unsettled next week?

I've already accepted what a twonk I was to call a poor summer, but as it stands, next week just looks cooler and unsettled, which, although very much needed, is typical for me!

To be fair it still looks reasonably warm, low 20s at worst in the south. Rain looks to be hit or miss rather than all-day washout territory (I hope). I've known much worse!

---

18Z GFS a degree or two less hot for the weekend, 36 rather than 38 the max.

---

 

Not sure it is “often the case” TBH. The weather gets worse for the school holidays is a TWO cliche backed up by little if any evidence! 

Do you want to argue that point of evidence with the millions of mothers and fathers around the country?

The answer is no! It is not a cliche, it's fact, it's only been (except in the last couple of Augusts (and a few exceptions) that we've had good

weather after August, and for a long time August has nearly always been a washout, until after the first week in September when the kids

have gone back to school the good weather arrives. This has happend too many times to not notice.

I've also known an August or two when we've had snow.

---

I've also known an August or two when we've had snow.

No you haven't - unless you mean on top of a mountain (as it can snow at the top of Ben Nevis any time of year).

If you think you have, please prove it! As someone who detests summer and who always looks for cold weather where possible, I'm unaware of anything involving sleet (let alone snow) in lowland England (or Wales) in August. There have been cases of sleet in July and September, but we're talking a hundred+ years ago.

 

---

GFS 0z keeps the heat all the way to the 19th this morning.  

---

 

No you haven't - unless you mean on top of a mountain (as it can snow at the top of Ben Nevis any time of year).

If you think you have, please prove it! As someone who detests summer and who always looks for cold weather where possible, I'm unaware of anything involving sleet (let alone snow) in lowland England (or Wales) in August. There have been cases of sleet in July and September, but we're talking a hundred+ years ago.

 

I believe there has been some major hail storms in the past, one of these deposited over a foot of hail in Tunbridge Wells in August on 6th August 1956. I have a photo in the History of British weather showing what appeared to be a winter wonderland. The thunderstorms dropped over 40cm of hail in places which some people mistake for snow.

---

Looking at the charts for Sunday there is potential for some large but localised thunderstorms to breakout in southern and southwestern England. Low pressure (1011mb) humidity and more instability in the atmosphere than we’ve seen for a little while.

---

I believe there has been some major hail storms in the past, one of these deposited over a foot of hail in Tunbridge Wells in August on 6th August 1956. I have a photo in the History of British weather showing what appeared to be a winter wonderland. The thunderstorms dropped over 40cm of hail in places which some people mistake for snow.

Yes, there have been several of those storms - the Kent Weather Book has some photos of them, including one in Tunbridge Wells in the early 80s. People mistook the hail for snow, but it was of course far too warm for snow!

Perhaps we might see some hail if the thunderstorms which have started to appear on some of the models materialise! GFS has fairly widespread storms in the middle of next week, as does whatever the BBC uses (used to be ECM, but I'm not sure now).

 

---

 

Yes, there have been several of those storms - the Kent Weather Book has some photos of them, including one in Tunbridge Wells in the early 80s. People mistook the hail for snow, but it was of course far too warm for snow!

Perhaps we might see some hail if the thunderstorms which have started to appear on some of the models materialise! GFS has fairly widespread storms in the middle of next week, as does whatever the BBC uses (used to be ECM, but I'm not sure now).

 

https://www.alamy.com/aug-07-1956-not-a-christmas-scene-but-august-bank-holiday-1966-freak-image69301073.html

 

---