IMBY post

 

😃

From the most IMBY poster on the entire thread, I will take that as a compliment. 

Summers over?

Technically, we will actually be able to say that summer is over once we get to the beginning of next month as we will entering into the meteorological autumn.

Even then though, we might still find that we're not completely finished with this summer in terms of our weather.

Only time will tell with that one of course.

I fully recognise the usual and sometimes vast differences in weather, say between the NW and SE.

Vast differences over a relatively small area , e.g Doncaster/York with a SE climate and NWDales/Lake District much cooler and with over three times the annual rainfall. Fasnicating and all should be free to comment on all the extremes and anything in between. 

 

Vast differences over a relatively small area , e.g Doncaster/York with a SE climate and NWDales/Lake District much cooler and with over three times the annual rainfall. Fasnicating and all should be free to comment on all the extremes and anything in between. 

On a more general note the trend for the medium term looks increasingly warm and generally very dry for most. That trend continues on the 06z GFS ensemble set.

Going by the ensembles, today is about as "cold" as it's likely to get for the next fortnight*. Maybe autumn isn't arriving just yet 

Having said that it does feel distinctly fresh in the breeze today.

*edit: in the London area 

 

On a more general note the trend for the medium term looks increasingly warm and generally very dry for most. That trend continues on the 06z GFS ensemble set.

Interestingly the Op run is trying to seek attention again. This time by keeping it hot for longer and then dive bombing to well below average over the space of 48 hours. 

This is one of the most telling charts

 

That would take us to 45 days with no measurable rainfall in parts of Hampshire (none since 30 June) and even June was hardly wet.

That would be quite something - 1995 (as far as I know) was the last time we went more than 40 days without rain in a location in the UK - that was Margate in Kent with 42 days. The record though is a whalloping 73 days in Mile End, London back in the Spring of 1893.

Does anyone know what we're up to now?

I fully recognise the usual and sometimes vast differences in weather, say between the NW and SE.
My earlier comments were only meant to balance the conversation of dry, sunny, warm summer of the South and East with the tepid, dull weather up here.
I know it's normal! I'd have been much better staying in Edinburgh for a warmer, drier summer 😂
At least I'm in Portugal for 4 weeks in Sept ☀️🌝[/quote

Yes i realise that. It is a bit like a current "drought Thread " on a farming forum. Most of the posts are from the wetter areas saying it is raining again. 

 

 

That would be quite something - 1995 (as far as I know) was the last time we went more than 40 days without rain in a location in the UK - that was Margate in Kent with 42 days. The record though is a whalloping 73 days in Mile End, London back in the Spring of 1893.

Does anyone know what we're up to now?

AFAIK Hurn airport and Odiham are the current "leaders", both with the last measurable rainfall on 30 June, so that's 35 days up to yesterday. It looks pretty well certain there will be no appreciable rain at either of those for at least a week (although never say never in Britain!)

Edit: actually I see Hurn is now out of the running as it had 0.4mm of rain on Wednesday. (The total drought there started one day earlier than Odiham, in fact, with the last previous rainfall on June 29, so it managed 34 days in total.)

After about a week of 30c+ for the South the northerly is back on the GFS.  Seems unlikely but just about possible.  GEM goes for a southerly at the same time and is extremely hot.

GEM is insane

 

AFAIK Hurn airport and Odiham are the current "leaders", both with the last measurable rainfall on 30 June, so that's 35 days up to yesterday. It looks pretty well certain there will be no appreciable rain at either of those for at least a week (although never say never in Britain!)

 

Edit: actually I see Hurn is now out of the running as it had 0.4mm of rain on Wednesday. (The total drought there started one day earlier than Odiham, in fact, with the last previous rainfall on June 29, so it managed 34 days in total.)

60 days for Epsom in 2018 summer which ended on last week of July after reaching 36C.  There was some few drops few times. 

I fully recognise the usual and sometimes vast differences in weather, say between the NW and SE.
My earlier comments were only meant to balance the conversation of dry, sunny, warm summer of the South and East with the tepid, dull weather up here.
I know it's normal! I'd have been much better staying in Edinburgh for a warmer, drier summer 😂
At least I'm in Portugal for 4 weeks in Sept ☀️🌝

Que the drought ending on September the 1st for Portugal and Spain, with the jet digging South and an Ibrieaen low pressure in charge 

GFS 12z OP is a big cold outlier by the 16th. Huge spread on the GEFS beyond the 15th.

P3 one for the heat purists  five 40c+ days in a row. 

P3 one for the heat purists  five 40c+ days in a row. 

Thats the hottest GEFS run in history I think. Nothing in mid July with that number of successive 40s.

 

 

That would be quite something - 1995 (as far as I know) was the last time we went more than 40 days without rain in a location in the UK - that was Margate in Kent with 42 days. The record though is a whalloping 73 days in Mile End, London back in the Spring of 1893.

Does anyone know what we're up to now?

I'm sure it's been close numerous times since 1995 and possibly on a local basis maybe even been matched or succeeded, but due to limited number of met stations that actually record rainfall especially along the southern coastline of England it might have been missed. 

For my location for example we only average 20 days with rain falling during the summer so leaves on average 72 day's without rain. Now this is a 30 year average so some year's will have more rain days, and others fewer. Annoyingly Southsea metoffice station was stopped in 2005 and then Solent a few years later - Thorney doesn't record rainfall.

 

Thats the hottest GEFS run in history I think. Nothing in mid July with that number of successive 40s.

It's five 40s are sandwiched between some high 30s for good measure. Looks like 2 or 3 other ensembles get to 40c as well. Something to keep an eye on see if it becomes a growing trend. 

GEFS sniffing record heat again