P3 is beyond bonkers. Some of the July runs were crazy but that's another level.

From Tuesday it goes 30, 31, 34, 38, 40, 40, 41, 42, 36, 34, 32.

Makes 1976 look like a wet week in Skeggy.

P25 is not *quite* as intense but even longer lived: 31, 32, 33, 33, 38, 37, 37, 36, 38, 38, 38, 39, 39+ (39 at 12Z on Sun 21).\

That's nine days on the trot of 36+, of which 8 would likely touch 100F. Ridiculous.

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P3 is beyond bonkers. Some of the July runs were crazy but that's another level.

From Tuesday it goes 30, 31, 34, 38, 40, 40, 41, 42, 36, 34, 32.

Makes 1976 look like a wet week in Skeggy.

P25 is not *quite* as intense but even longer lived: 31, 32, 33, 33, 38, 37, 37, 36, 38, 38, 38, 39, 39+ (39 at 12Z on Sun 21).\

That's nine days on the trot of 36+, of which 8 would likely touch 100F. Ridiculous.

I think we could have this year if we have no cloud issue.  It will happen sooner than later to experience prolonged heatwave here instead of 1 day wonder.

 

I think we could have this year if we have no cloud issue.  It will happen sooner than later to experience prolonged heatwave here instead of 1 day wonder.

We already are in a prolonged heatwave jires 😅 it might not be prolonged +30C heat but in this past month only 5 days have failed to hit at least 24C for my location and I suspect similar for many more. Also yes we have had numerous days in the 30's during this past month.

 

We already are in a prolonged heatwave jires 😅 it might not be prolonged +30C heat but in this past month only 5 days have failed to hit at least 24C for my location and I suspect similar for many more. Also yes we have had numerous days in the 30's during this past month.

We are indeed. Statistics wise we are already up there with summers like 2013, 2005, 1984, 1990 and 1994 even if the rest of August is a cold washout. With the shortest and least intense of the modelled hot spells next week we already enter 1989 and 2006 territory, and probably 2003 and 1983. With the upper end of the current ensembles we bag summer 2022 as a 2018, 1995, 1976 podium finish. 

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Outlook for the majority of the UK population: warm if not very warm. No end in sight for the drought.

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Another August that gives the lie to the tired cliche that the weather always declines once the schools break up. Was always nonsense but at least this one will be fresh in the mind.

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We are indeed. Statistics wise we are already up there with summers like 2013, 2005, 1984, 1990 and 1994 even if the rest of August is a cold washout. With the shortest and least intense of the modelled hot spells next week we already enter 1989 and 2006 territory, and probably 2003 and 1983. With the upper end of the current ensembles we bag summer 2022 as a 2018, 1995, 1976 podium finish. 

I think on balance 2013 was at least for me down here warmer even if it didn't get above 31C. The June was from memory very warm because of the frequency N/NE winds, and that July was a cracker for the bulk of country.  The June July period saw many more days above 26C here.

So far this summer we have only had one day that failed to reach 20C in the UK, and that was June 1st.

After 66 days of meteorological summer, we have had 34 days (52%) of 25C+, 21 days (32%) of 28C+, 15 days (23%) of 29C+, 9 days (14%) of 30C+, and 2 days (3%) of 35C+.

Or for the old fashioned, 41% of days this summer (27 days) have reached 80F, and 6% (4 days) have reached 90F.

After next week those percentages should have climbed even higher!

 

GEM looks pretty hot this evening, and the GFS 18Z is also hot but cools significantly from Mon 15th.

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Just off the ferry at L’Ile Rousse at an unearthly 5.30am, on to an early opening cafe and check the models to see GFS finally changes its mind and let’s the op stay hot for most of the run.

As does GEM. As does UKMO.

EDIT: as does ECM.

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This morning’s insanely hot 1976 on steroids run is the GEM control.

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Just off the ferry at L’Ile Rousse at an unearthly 5.30am, on to an early opening cafe and check the models to see GFS finally changes its mind and let’s the op stay hot for most of the run.

As does GEM. As does UKMO.

Hot weather will not go away unless France cool down but no signs of it so likely stay to late September when Autumn arrive to kill off.  In the meantime perfect rising every day to 32C in here by Friday. At least no big rise and drop nonsense set up, more like what we had in the past heatwaves.  9C this morning the coldest so far in a long while which used to be normal before the heatwave starts.

Imagine if we'd had 5 winters this century comparable to 1963. 😨

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Hot weather will not go away unless France cool down but no signs of it so likely stay to late September when Autumn arrive to kill off.  In the meantime perfect rising every day to 32C in here by Friday. At least no big rise and drop nonsense set up, more like what we had in the past heatwaves.  9C this morning the coldest so far in a long while which used to be normal before the heatwave starts.

Perfect for some; others of us think 25C quite enough. But what about water supply, impossible conditions for gardens, and I'm really sorry for farmers trying to grow veg.

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ECM op looks a contender for the steroids run. Roasting!

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GFS op run is a warmer one but the ensembles have fewer of the insane record breakers. Still crazy to see that constant rise in 850s over the next 7 days though!

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Perfect for some; others of us think 25C quite enough. But what about water supply, impossible conditions for gardens, and I'm really sorry for farmers trying to grow veg.

So far the announced hosepipe bans are only for domestic purposes so farmers can continue to irrigate. I think market gardeners are generally OK as the surface area needing irrigation is usually relatively small. Arable farmers have more of an issue if it’s really dry given the sheer scale of land that would need watering and the marginal profits available (though grain and oilseed prices are very high this year due to Ukraine). Maize is typically a problem crop in dry summers: drought sensitive but grown at large scale. 

Very difficult for cattle grazing and dairy. Cows need lots of fresh grass and in droughts it needs to be topped up with expensive and scarce hay. Again, margins are wafer thin. Large areas of Central France that are traditional cattle rearing areas (Limousin, Charolais) have had multiple crisis years this last decade and I expect many will give up at some point and convert to arable or orchards. 

There’s been some debate in the viticulture community on the merits and legality of watering young vines. Mine were planted in April. So far no apparent drought effects and we had 5mm in late July which will have helped, but another hot dry month is a bit worrying. 

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Over a  week of 15c + 850s for many on the ECM.  

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WX summary this morning back to showing heat over W Europe incl England for the next two weeks; any cool down promised yesterday confined to areas E of the Baltic. There's an interesting temp gradient between there and ultra-hot Hungary through Ukraine to Caspian. Also quite a temp gradient from S England to N Scotland, though not as sharp as further east. Rain in week 1 in a band stretching E from N Scotland, but a very dry area for W Spain, France, Germany, England; in week 2 the rain moves S with significant amounts shown in N England and over the Alps.

GFS Op - HP centred W of Ireland becomes a ridge SW-NE across UK to Norway Thu 11th then becoming more diffuse with centre mostly near NW Scotland to Mon 15th. LP then develops near Iceland and becomes centred as shallow low 1005mb Ireland Fri 19th before moving slowly NE. A hurricane appears the chart for Fri 19th intensifying but staying in the W Atlantic.

MetO forecasting dawn-to-dusk sunshine for a full week and temps of 35C for London by Fri 12th, echoed by Meteo Group (BBC)

GEFS - peak temps 8C above norm in S, more like 4C above in N, by Fri 12th with good agreement between ens members, then declining slowly with less variation than shown yesterday, back to norm by Fri 19th, even perhaps below norm in the N later.Small amounts of rain from that date in some ens members in S, not much more in N.

ECM - similar to GFS, perhaps lower pressure over N Sea from Mon 15th as HP moves away

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ECM op looks a contender for the steroids run. Roasting!

Astonishing run yes. Looks like summer has a long, long, long way to run.

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So far the announced hosepipe bans are only for domestic purposes so  I think market gardeners are generally OK as the surface area needing irrigation is usually relatively small. Arable farmers have more of an issue if it’s really dry given the sheer scale of land that would need watering and the marginal profits available (though grain and oilseed prices are very high this year due to Ukraine). Maize is typically a problem crop in dry summers: drought sensitive but grown at large scale. 

Very difficult for cattle grazing and dairy. Cows need lots of fresh grass and in droughts it needs to be topped up with expensive and scarce hay. Again, margins are wafer thin. Large areas of Central France that are traditional cattle rearing areas (Limousin, Charolais) have had multiple crisis years this last decade and I expect many will give up at some point and convert to arable or orchards. 

There’s been some debate in the viticulture community on the merits and legality of watering young vines. Mine were planted in April. So far no apparent drought effects and we had 5mm in late July which will have helped, but another hot dry month is a bit worrying. 

Up to a point; but irrigation has energy costs and with very high temps and dry soil there's a problem with immediate evaporation.

Most of the arable crops have been harvested so such farmers can sit it out, though a poor maize crop, still to come in, is going to exacerbate the feed problem for dairy farmers in months to come.

Vines (AFAIK but I defer to your expertise) once established are deep-rooted and evolved to grow in Mediterranean conditions where there is little summer rain so should actually do well this year.

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