WX summary this morning back to showing heat over W Europe incl England for the next two weeks; any cool down promised yesterday confined to areas E of the Baltic. There's an interesting temp gradient between there and ultra-hot Hungary through Ukraine to Caspian. Also quite a temp gradient from S England to N Scotland, though not as sharp as further east. Rain in week 1 in a band stretching E from N Scotland, but a very dry area for W Spain, France, Germany, England; in week 2 the rain moves S with significant amounts shown in N England and over the Alps.
GFS Op - HP centred W of Ireland becomes a ridge SW-NE across UK to Norway Thu 11th then becoming more diffuse with centre mostly near NW Scotland to Mon 15th. LP then develops near Iceland and becomes centred as shallow low 1005mb Ireland Fri 19th before moving slowly NE. A hurricane appears the chart for Fri 19th intensifying but staying in the W Atlantic.
MetO forecasting dawn-to-dusk sunshine for a full week and temps of 35C for London by Fri 12th, echoed by Meteo Group (BBC)
GEFS - peak temps 8C above norm in S, more like 4C above in N, by Fri 12th with good agreement between ens members, then declining slowly with less variation than shown yesterday, back to norm by Fri 19th, even perhaps below norm in the N later.Small amounts of rain from that date in some ens members in S, not much more in N.
ECM - similar to GFS, perhaps lower pressure over N Sea from Mon 15th as HP moves away
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