Well I'm heading South to Christchurch for three days and hoping to catch this short drier warmer interlude till the weekend. First time I've been away in the UK since August 2020. I was hoping for some clear night skies for photography purposes but that's looking unlikely.

 I used to go to Christchurch a lot back in the l70,s when i was out courting . Always had lunch at the "Copper Skillet" As far as i know it is still there. They always had roast Turkey on. Used to hire a rowing boat and go out on the river which was always a laugh. The 70,s seemed a simpler time to me.

Met Office Long Range Forecast shows June Temperature is going to be warmer than average.

Do the Met Office ever forecast below average monthly temperatures?

The general warming trend means that even crap weather months tend to be above average these days, often down to warm cloudy nights.

 

Do the Met Office ever forecast below average monthly temperatures?

The general warming trend means that even crap weather months tend to be above average these days, often down to warm cloudy nights.

I can't remember the last time they did. No doubt this will be another one of those months where the temperature hardly gets above 20c yet somehow it will be 1 - 2c above average. Although the first week or so at least looks like it should be below average to me.

Summary temps showing summer gradually creeping northwards on a broad front over Europe - the 14C isotherm which follows the Channel coast and so eastwards to the S Baltic in week 1 is about 200 miles further N in week 2, England - S Sweden - Finland. Rain fairly general over Europe in week 1 (a small dry slot over E Scotland) ,moves E-wards in week 2 with most W european countries on the dry side (ironically, the damp exception is E Scotland!)

FAX showing a less settled Jubilee weekend than hoped for. Thu, fronts over Ireland and N France  which move closer to England on Fri  and coalesce on Sat with a front along the English Channel. That front lying across N England on Sun with showery troughs moving E-wards to the south of it.

Jet - bits and pieces S England / N France for the next week after which most of the action is well out on the Atlantic

GFS op - pressure fairly high over Scotland until Tue 7th with shallow LP around the Channel or Low Countries . Small LP traverses Britain SW-NE Thu 9th after which N-S ridge of HP sets up over W Britain, rotating to E-W over Scotland by Tue 14th with more shallow LP pushing up from France. 

GEFS - temps in SE warmer for a few days than mean close to norm for the foreseeable, large amount of rain for Mon 6th, small amountts at other times. Other areas miss that brief warmth, mean close to norm throughout, not much rain in the N for a week then regularly appearing in most ens members 

ECM - misses out the LP Thu 9th but otherwise similar to GFS

 

I can't remember the last time they did. No doubt this will be another one of those months where the temperature hardly gets above 20c yet somehow it will be 1 - 2c above average. Although the first week or so at least looks like it should be below average to me.

They are urged to push the warming climate agenda. Not denying the long term trends of course but it seems they’re more and more a campaign mouthpiece than ever these days. 

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz........

GEFS showing up to 60mm of rain in parts of SE on Sunday thanks to a stalled channel low.

Shame it's not January etc, etc...

GEFS showing up to 60mm of rain in parts of SE on Sunday thanks to a stalled channel low.

Shame it's not January etc, etc...

indeed could be really wet especially if any embedded storms - one to watch warnings could be coming soon

 

indeed could be really wet especially if any embedded storms - one to watch warnings could be coming soon

You should head north, it will be drier and we may even get temperatures reaching the teens at times. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_120_49.png 

 

You should head north, it will be drier and we may even get temperatures reaching the teens at times. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_120_49.png 

 

indeed could be quite nice this weekend the further north, hoping the rain misses still

Outlook has taken a turn for the worse. Unsettled looks like being the favoured scenario. 

Models a little more optimistic this morning,  even hints of a plume.  But anything past 120h to be treated with caution. 

FAX offers a detailed outlook model for the BH weekend
Today, Thu, LP 1018mb NI with minor fronts affecting NI  NW England, troughs over N France
Fri, LP has filled replaced by HP 1028 mb N Scotland, troughs still staying the other side of the Channel
Sat, HP 1025 mb off E Scotland, troughs cross the Channel and for a while get organised as a warm front along the S Coast
Sun, HP 1025 mb Shetland, warm front breaks up back into troughs, one S Wales/ Irish Sea, another E Anglia

For a wider outlook:

WX temp summaries - warmer weather moving steadily N-wards, by week 2, definitely warm across Mid-France - C Europe, but still a cool patch Scotland and W Norway. Dry in the Med throughout, small dry areas week 1 N Sea, week 2 Baltic, else rainfall widely distributed

GFS Op - as FAX above for the weekend, then broad ridge of HP covering Britain Wed 8th before Atlantic LP moves to Iceland introducing W-lies for weekend of Sat 11th. LP then drifts up from the S 1000mb covering Britain Wed 15th before new Atlantic LP restores the W/SW-ly pattern

GEFS - temps at or a little above norm pretty well throughout,(in the S up then down at first), best chance of warmth around Fri 10th. Mainly dry in N until about Fri 10th then regular amounts; big totals in SE around Mon 6th, less in SW, perhaps as far N as Birmingham, then small amounts from time to time

ECM - resembles GFS but adds shallow LP over S England Mon 6th, soon filling, and LP on Sat 11th closer to Scotland

Note - this review may be briefer or absent tomorrow if I decide the weather is good enough for an early start and a long day out

They are urged to push the warming climate agenda. Not denying the long term trends of course but it seems they’re more and more a campaign mouthpiece than ever these days. 

 Looking at their front page now.  Right at the bottom, past all the important stuff, there are six featurettes. One of them is about climate change.

Furthermore.  In an organisation that is filled to the rafters with qualified Environmental scientists (as am I)  you would expect them to push what they 'actually know' and relegate any political or Deep State considerations.

I think the people in this forum are somewhat too educated to be interested in conspiracy theories. 

Not in this arena anyway.

....Oh anywho.  Appreciate the input. Nothing else happening today.... *Hears masses of weird aircraft going over head*

Briefly

FAX 
Fri - Small LP in Irish Sea gradually filling with HP becoming established over Britain centre 1027mb Rockall
Sat - trough over France approaching Channel Coast. HP 1028mb N Scotland
Sun - HP 1025mb Shetland, troughs over W Country and E Anglia
By Mon emphasis is on shallow LP with a mess of fronts over England

WX
Warmer temps moving N, less certainly than yesterday, and in week 2 cooling again in E Russia
Dry in Med, and dry-ish Scandinavia both weeks, rain about elsewhere

GFS Op
The week starts with Hp over Scotland and shallow LP over England, from Friday for a week or so, Atlantic LPs moving NE-wards past or close to Scotland with general W/Sw-ly regime, mostly set fair for SE England, looks cloudy for W Scotland

ECM 0z not available at time of posting

More pessimistic than optimistic this morning.  Mixed at best . Looks like low pressure moving in next week .

ECM is basically November.  Dire!

More pessimistic than optimistic this morning.  Mixed at best . Looks like low pressure moving in next week .

ECM is basically November.  Dire!

I notice Brian always use the word Mixed because no models are good and accurate so putting Mixed is the way forward as we have no idea what the outcome will be.  I already lost interest with this year summer from the way reading here and NW, I don't view the models as they are not use to me anymore.  I even notice the funny weather apps put 20C early next week after Sun with all day rain?  This is Nuneaton, not Nicosia to rain all day at 20C it will drop to 12-13C for absolute max. With 20C now extremely rare on today UK ever colder summer climate require full sun to warm it up. 

A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.

Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.

I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.

 

I notice Brian always use the word Mixed because no models are good and accurate so putting Mixed is the way forward as we have no idea what the outcome will be.  I already lost interest with this year summer from the way reading here and NW, I don't view the models as they are not use to me anymore.  I even notice the funny weather apps put 20C early next week after Sun with all day rain?  This is Nuneaton, not Nicosia to rain all day at 20C it will drop to 12-13C for absolute max. With 20C now extremely rare on today UK ever colder summer climate require full sun to warm it up. 

Well peak summer is late June to early August so we can only hope it improves by then. 

A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.

Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.

I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.

Would this be the same Matt Hugo that last winter was predicting a major cold spell early on?