Zzzzzzzzzzzzz........

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GEFS showing up to 60mm of rain in parts of SE on Sunday thanks to a stalled channel low.

Shame it's not January etc, etc...

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indeed could be really wet especially if any embedded storms - one to watch warnings could be coming soon

You should head north, it will be drier and we may even get temperatures reaching the teens at times. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_120_49.png 

 

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indeed could be quite nice this weekend the further north, hoping the rain misses still

Outlook has taken a turn for the worse. Unsettled looks like being the favoured scenario. 

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Models a little more optimistic this morning,  even hints of a plume.  But anything past 120h to be treated with caution. 

 

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FAX offers a detailed outlook model for the BH weekend
Today, Thu, LP 1018mb NI with minor fronts affecting NI  NW England, troughs over N France
Fri, LP has filled replaced by HP 1028 mb N Scotland, troughs still staying the other side of the Channel
Sat, HP 1025 mb off E Scotland, troughs cross the Channel and for a while get organised as a warm front along the S Coast
Sun, HP 1025 mb Shetland, warm front breaks up back into troughs, one S Wales/ Irish Sea, another E Anglia

For a wider outlook:

WX temp summaries - warmer weather moving steadily N-wards, by week 2, definitely warm across Mid-France - C Europe, but still a cool patch Scotland and W Norway. Dry in the Med throughout, small dry areas week 1 N Sea, week 2 Baltic, else rainfall widely distributed

GFS Op - as FAX above for the weekend, then broad ridge of HP covering Britain Wed 8th before Atlantic LP moves to Iceland introducing W-lies for weekend of Sat 11th. LP then drifts up from the S 1000mb covering Britain Wed 15th before new Atlantic LP restores the W/SW-ly pattern

GEFS - temps at or a little above norm pretty well throughout,(in the S up then down at first), best chance of warmth around Fri 10th. Mainly dry in N until about Fri 10th then regular amounts; big totals in SE around Mon 6th, less in SW, perhaps as far N as Birmingham, then small amounts from time to time

ECM - resembles GFS but adds shallow LP over S England Mon 6th, soon filling, and LP on Sat 11th closer to Scotland

 

Note - this review may be briefer or absent tomorrow if I decide the weather is good enough for an early start and a long day out

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 Looking at their front page now.  Right at the bottom, past all the important stuff, there are six featurettes. One of them is about climate change.

 

Furthermore.  In an organisation that is filled to the rafters with qualified Environmental scientists (as am I)  you would expect them to push what they 'actually know' and relegate any political or Deep State considerations.

I think the people in this forum are somewhat too educated to be interested in conspiracy theories. 

Not in this arena anyway.

 

....Oh anywho.  Appreciate the input. Nothing else happening today.... *Hears masses of weird aircraft going over head*

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Briefly

FAX 
Fri - Small LP in Irish Sea gradually filling with HP becoming established over Britain centre 1027mb Rockall
Sat - trough over France approaching Channel Coast. HP 1028mb N Scotland
Sun - HP 1025mb Shetland, troughs over W Country and E Anglia
By Mon emphasis is on shallow LP with a mess of fronts over England

WX
Warmer temps moving N, less certainly than yesterday, and in week 2 cooling again in E Russia
Dry in Med, and dry-ish Scandinavia both weeks, rain about elsewhere

GFS Op
The week starts with Hp over Scotland and shallow LP over England, from Friday for a week or so, Atlantic LPs moving NE-wards past or close to Scotland with general W/Sw-ly regime, mostly set fair for SE England, looks cloudy for W Scotland

ECM 0z not available at time of posting

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More pessimistic than optimistic this morning.  Mixed at best . Looks like low pressure moving in next week .

ECM is basically November.  Dire!

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I notice Brian always use the word Mixed because no models are good and accurate so putting Mixed is the way forward as we have no idea what the outcome will be.  I already lost interest with this year summer from the way reading here and NW, I don't view the models as they are not use to me anymore.  I even notice the funny weather apps put 20C early next week after Sun with all day rain?  This is Nuneaton, not Nicosia to rain all day at 20C it will drop to 12-13C for absolute max. With 20C now extremely rare on today UK ever colder summer climate require full sun to warm it up. 

A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.

Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.

I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.

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Well peak summer is late June to early August so we can only hope it improves by then. 

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Would this be the same Matt Hugo that last winter was predicting a major cold spell early on?

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Yet the latest UKMO run is showing more in the way of Summer-like conditions by this time next week, at least for the southern portion of the UK, but indeed the latest ECM run does look Summer 1985 style (awful) with GFS somewhere in the middle.

Pretty much up in the air, but for now here at Kent it is a case of making the most of today's pleasant conditions before it all turn rubbish over the weekend.

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GFS is really going for it on Sunday! Here's the forecast for my bit of Kent, from the 0z output via XCWeather:

Suffice to say if that comes of it'll be headline news.

I suspect it won't be, as it's varied between a few mm to a couple of inches with every run, but it shows the potential is there.

It's a reminder that it's traditionally the time of the European monsoon!

 

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What a load of twaddle, it’s the 3rd June! We will get a plume and will reach 90f this summer. 

Our only chance is that the ECM recently has been utter shite for the 168+ range consistently showing high pressure which never materialises.  

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It's a TWO tradition for Moomin to write off summer. In fact 3rd June is late for him.😁

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I know and then deny it until somebody finds the post. To write off summer now just stupid, in a warming trend we it doesn’t take much to get hot now. 

I have to stay true to myself. 😅

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It's already the 3rd of June and we still haven't had 6 weeks of 30c+ and unbroken blue skies.  Summer is over.

I bet we don't even get 10 weeks of snow next winter either.  Why do we even bother?   


Meanwhile, back in the real world, it was the 5th warmest May on record.

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Warmest day of the year so far down here for me @25.5C just a shame the cloud has rolled up from the south to cap it all off. Also we've had more thunderstorm warnings so fat this year than all of last summer. 

All in all plenty to be optimistic about for the coming summer.

Outlook continues to look very poor for June and most parts of the country haven't even been close to 25c yet never mind 30c.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out given the Met Office and the models were extremely confident of a very hot Summer.

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