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Saint Snow
01 June 2022 10:08:52


They are urged to push the warming climate agenda. Not denying the long term trends of course but it seems they’re more and more a campaign mouthpiece than ever these days. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


 


 


Zzzzzzzzzzzzz........



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
01 June 2022 10:45:07

GEFS showing up to 60mm of rain in parts of SE on Sunday thanks to a stalled channel low.


Shame it's not January etc, etc...


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
ballamar
01 June 2022 15:37:01


GEFS showing up to 60mm of rain in parts of SE on Sunday thanks to a stalled channel low.


Shame it's not January etc, etc...


Originally Posted by: RobN 


indeed could be really wet especially if any embedded storms - one to watch warnings could be coming soon

doctormog
01 June 2022 16:20:40


 


indeed could be really wet especially if any embedded storms - one to watch warnings could be coming soon


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


You should head north, it will be drier and we may even get temperatures reaching the teens at times. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_120_49.png 


 


ballamar
01 June 2022 16:31:57


 


You should head north, it will be drier and we may even get temperatures reaching the teens at times. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_120_49.png 


 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


indeed could be quite nice this weekend the further north, hoping the rain misses still

Ally Pally Snowman
01 June 2022 19:02:48

Outlook has taken a turn for the worse. Unsettled looks like being the favoured scenario. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 June 2022 06:44:48

Models a little more optimistic this morning,  even hints of a plume.  But anything past 120h to be treated with caution. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 June 2022 06:53:53

FAX offers a detailed outlook model for the BH weekend
Today, Thu, LP 1018mb NI with minor fronts affecting NI  NW England, troughs over N France
Fri, LP has filled replaced by HP 1028 mb N Scotland, troughs still staying the other side of the Channel
Sat, HP 1025 mb off E Scotland, troughs cross the Channel and for a while get organised as a warm front along the S Coast
Sun, HP 1025 mb Shetland, warm front breaks up back into troughs, one S Wales/ Irish Sea, another E Anglia


For a wider outlook:


WX temp summaries - warmer weather moving steadily N-wards, by week 2, definitely warm across Mid-France - C Europe, but still a cool patch Scotland and W Norway. Dry in the Med throughout, small dry areas week 1 N Sea, week 2 Baltic, else rainfall widely distributed


GFS Op - as FAX above for the weekend, then broad ridge of HP covering Britain Wed 8th before Atlantic LP moves to Iceland introducing W-lies for weekend of Sat 11th. LP then drifts up from the S 1000mb covering Britain Wed 15th before new Atlantic LP restores the W/SW-ly pattern


GEFS - temps at or a little above norm pretty well throughout,(in the S up then down at first), best chance of warmth around Fri 10th. Mainly dry in N until about Fri 10th then regular amounts; big totals in SE around Mon 6th, less in SW, perhaps as far N as Birmingham, then small amounts from time to time


ECM - resembles GFS but adds shallow LP over S England Mon 6th, soon filling, and LP on Sat 11th closer to Scotland


 


Note - this review may be briefer or absent tomorrow if I decide the weather is good enough for an early start and a long day out


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
mulattokid
02 June 2022 11:18:14


They are urged to push the warming climate agenda. Not denying the long term trends of course but it seems they’re more and more a campaign mouthpiece than ever these days. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


 Looking at their front page now.  Right at the bottom, past all the important stuff, there are six featurettes. One of them is about climate change.


 


Furthermore.  In an organisation that is filled to the rafters with qualified Environmental scientists (as am I)  you would expect them to push what they 'actually know' and relegate any political or Deep State considerations.


I think the people in this forum are somewhat too educated to be interested in conspiracy theories. 


Not in this arena anyway.


 


....Oh anywho.  Appreciate the input. Nothing else happening today.... *Hears masses of weird aircraft going over head*


Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
Anonymous friend of Quentin Crisp
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 June 2022 05:19:19

Briefly


FAX 
Fri - Small LP in Irish Sea gradually filling with HP becoming established over Britain centre 1027mb Rockall
Sat - trough over France approaching Channel Coast. HP 1028mb N Scotland
Sun - HP 1025mb Shetland, troughs over W Country and E Anglia
By Mon emphasis is on shallow LP with a mess of fronts over England


WX
Warmer temps moving N, less certainly than yesterday, and in week 2 cooling again in E Russia
Dry in Med, and dry-ish Scandinavia both weeks, rain about elsewhere


GFS Op
The week starts with Hp over Scotland and shallow LP over England, from Friday for a week or so, Atlantic LPs moving NE-wards past or close to Scotland with general W/Sw-ly regime, mostly set fair for SE England, looks cloudy for W Scotland


ECM 0z not available at time of posting


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2022 06:32:21

More pessimistic than optimistic this morning.  Mixed at best . Looks like low pressure moving in next week .


ECM is basically November.  Dire!


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
03 June 2022 07:09:04


More pessimistic than optimistic this morning.  Mixed at best . Looks like low pressure moving in next week .


ECM is basically November.  Dire!


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I notice Brian always use the word Mixed because no models are good and accurate so putting Mixed is the way forward as we have no idea what the outcome will be.  I already lost interest with this year summer from the way reading here and NW, I don't view the models as they are not use to me anymore.  I even notice the funny weather apps put 20C early next week after Sun with all day rain?  This is Nuneaton, not Nicosia to rain all day at 20C it will drop to 12-13C for absolute max. With 20C now extremely rare on today UK ever colder summer climate require full sun to warm it up. 

moomin75
03 June 2022 07:13:54

A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.


Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.


I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2022 07:15:47


 


I notice Brian always use the word Mixed because no models are good and accurate so putting Mixed is the way forward as we have no idea what the outcome will be.  I already lost interest with this year summer from the way reading here and NW, I don't view the models as they are not use to me anymore.  I even notice the funny weather apps put 20C early next week after Sun with all day rain?  This is Nuneaton, not Nicosia to rain all day at 20C it will drop to 12-13C for absolute max. With 20C now extremely rare on today UK ever colder summer climate require full sun to warm it up. 


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Well peak summer is late June to early August so we can only hope it improves by then. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
03 June 2022 08:11:33


A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.


Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.


I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Would this be the same Matt Hugo that last winter was predicting a major cold spell early on?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
idj20
03 June 2022 08:40:16


A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.


Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.


I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Yet the latest UKMO run is showing more in the way of Summer-like conditions by this time next week, at least for the southern portion of the UK, but indeed the latest ECM run does look Summer 1985 style (awful) with GFS somewhere in the middle.

Pretty much up in the air, but for now here at Kent it is a case of making the most of today's pleasant conditions before it all turn rubbish over the weekend.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Retron
03 June 2022 08:58:13

GFS is really going for it on Sunday! Here's the forecast for my bit of Kent, from the 0z output via XCWeather:



Suffice to say if that comes of it'll be headline news.


I suspect it won't be, as it's varied between a few mm to a couple of inches with every run, but it shows the potential is there.


It's a reminder that it's traditionally the time of the European monsoon!


 


Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
03 June 2022 09:07:48


A frankly terrible ECM and GFS not much better.


Matt Hugo is peddling a La Nina summer perspective and that pretty much this is our lot this year.


I think his anticipation is that the summer will be largely a write off, and we've seen the best of it already.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


What a load of twaddle, it’s the 3rd June! We will get a plume and will reach 90f this summer. 

Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2022 09:10:28




Yet the latest UKMO run is showing more in the way of Summer-like conditions by this time next week, at least for the southern portion of the UK, but indeed the latest ECM run does look Summer 1985 style (awful) with GFS somewhere in the middle.

Pretty much up in the air, but for now here at Kent it is a case of making the most of today's pleasant conditions before it all turn rubbish over the weekend.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Our only chance is that the ECM recently has been utter shite for the 168+ range consistently showing high pressure which never materialises.  


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 June 2022 09:18:49


 


What a load of twaddle, it’s the 3rd June! We will get a plume and will reach 90f this summer. 


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


It's a TWO tradition for Moomin to write off summer. In fact 3rd June is late for him.😁


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
03 June 2022 09:57:40


 


It's a TWO tradition for Moomin to write off summer. In fact 3rd June is late for him.😁


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I know and then deny it until somebody finds the post. To write off summer now just stupid, in a warming trend we it doesn’t take much to get hot now. 

moomin75
03 June 2022 11:28:26


 


It's a TWO tradition for Moomin to write off summer. In fact 3rd June is late for him.😁


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I have to stay true to myself. 😅


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Essan
03 June 2022 12:15:18


 


What a load of twaddle, it’s the 3rd June! We will get a plume and will reach 90f this summer. 


Originally Posted by: ballamar 



It's already the 3rd of June and we still haven't had 6 weeks of 30c+ and unbroken blue skies.  Summer is over.

I bet we don't even get 10 weeks of snow next winter either.  Why do we even bother?   


Meanwhile, back in the real world, it was the 5th warmest May on record.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
picturesareme
03 June 2022 12:25:30




It's already the 3rd of June and we still haven't had 6 weeks of 30c+ and unbroken blue skies.  Summer is over.

I bet we don't even get 10 weeks of snow next winter either.  Why do we even bother?   


Meanwhile, back in the real world, it was the 5th warmest May on record.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Warmest day of the year so far down here for me @25.5C just a shame the cloud has rolled up from the south to cap it all off. Also we've had more thunderstorm warnings so fat this year than all of last summer. 


All in all plenty to be optimistic about for the coming summer.

Taylor1740
03 June 2022 16:53:23
Outlook continues to look very poor for June and most parts of the country haven't even been close to 25c yet never mind 30c.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out given the Met Office and the models were extremely confident of a very hot Summer.



NW Leeds - 150m amsl

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