WX summary: as Col commented a few days back, the summer heatwave is matching the winter easterly as a thing that is forecast a week out but never actually happens, at least according to this morning's charts. The promised warmth no more than flirts with the SE in week 1 (despite Bran's post above) and retreats back to S France in week 2 as cooler weather from the NE spreads across Europe (except the Med) from the NE. Week 1, as yesterday, has rain in the N Atlantic also affecting western Britain, and in the Baltic; week 2 has heavy rain Ireland - England - Alps (esp heavy there) - Balkans with some patches remaining over the Baltic.
Jet : starts with a flow N of Scotland to Sun 15th then bits and pieces near S England to Tue 24th as loops on the Atlantic break up (certainly more active than shown yesterday) and finally a strong stream through the Channel
GFS Op ; zonal W-lies at first until HP appears over UK Sun 15th but never really establishes, being pushed E by Atlantic LP with any S-lies being fed more from the Atlantic than Spain. That LP finally takes over covering the UK 995mb Sun 22nd and although it moves off E-wards, is followed by a series of secondaries e.g. 1000mb SW Approaches Fri 27th.
GEFS : more cheerful, rising to ca 5c above norm around Tue 17th (but still not up to previous forecasts) dropping back to a couple of degrees above norm for most of the rest of the fortnight, so pleasant enough. Cooler in NW at first and in SW later. Rain fairly frequent from the 17th, not much in SE, more in NW as ever.
ECM : brings the Atlantic LP deeper and closer to Scotland Wed 18th before resuming a match with GFS i.e. sitting to the W of Ireland and pushing the HP into the N Sea