Genuine question here... does the QBO have a bearing on this at all? Easterly now descending?
Yes - in short: The unusual signals from the models for blocking will be influenced by the QBO being in its negative phase: The westerly phase helps drive weather systems from west to east, where’s that extra dynamo power is not there now, and being in reverse can slow down systems and encourage Trop’ blocks. The combined effect of the La Niña in the Pacific will help early blocking, rather than the normal super fast jet stream at this time of year - as the thermal gradient increases.
The models are seemingly struggling to pin down the block development and I will expect more see-saw runs between very blocked and partial/ temporary block scenarios. Either way, there is potential for this year to develop into something very interesting for cold lovers, to which I firmly belong. The model rollercoaster has begun and I plan on enjoying the ride and hopefully not getting too disappointed if the models struggle with abnormal patterns as they do and change the crazy snow dump IMBY to drizzle and Snizzle. After all - we have had a pandemic, and thus far - I’m still here and breathing - so I am already relishing the journey and chance to see a Christmas card scene again in dear old Blighty - like I did last year.
The climate might be 0.9 degrees higher than my childhood, but given the right Synoptics, I might still witness the utter transformational beauty of a crisp snow storm on the deciduous twigs and branches of a Norfolk woodland.. Enjoy....
Edited by user
Monday, November 8, 2021 11:53:45 PM
|
Reason: Not specified
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL