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Brian Gaze
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 4:26:32 PM




Conversely, we had none at all in Dec 2009 ....  

But yeah, I'd take that scenario any day     Preferably just lasting through till New year.   Don't need any other snow if that happens.   But it won't .....


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Essan
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 6:57:55 PM


Are you getting that confused with 2010? Dec 2009 brought 2 big drops here (approx 18cm and 17cm level) in the space of a few days. Dec 2010 was very underwhelming with just one decent fall about 1 week before Xmas.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



No, we had nothing here in Dec 2009 - no snow on the ground that winter until January .... (when we did get plenty)  whereas December 2010 was snowmaggedon

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/01/2nd-january-2010-todays-news-britain.html 

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/2010/12/20th-december-todays-news-record-low.html 





Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Whether Idle
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 6:58:07 PM


Whatever happens it will be on a knife edge and more runs will, I'm sure, be needed. 


Originally Posted by: westv 


An excellent contribution.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
westv
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 6:58:45 PM


As this is a very useful thread for the coming winter - Also it's a thread and area of discussion we can all chat on without cluttering up the MO thread I've decided to sticky this. I'll unsticky it towards the end of February.



Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?


 


laughinglaughing


At least it will be mild!
Whether Idle
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 7:00:42 PM


 


February? But isn't winter normally over by the first week in January?


 


laughinglaughing


Originally Posted by: westv 


Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th.  Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 7:04:28 PM
Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.
Essan
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 7:05:05 PM

As I recall, most years, Winter Is Over, occurs every year in early December     If the models do not predict 20 days of snowfall in London by the middle of December, that's it 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Whether Idle
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 7:09:44 PM

Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 7:40:18 PM


 


WIO at the spring equinox usually around March 22nd 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Oi, there’s no rooms for pesky things like facts in here. 


Gandalf The White
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 8:14:06 PM

Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen?


But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 8:18:16 PM


 


I'm sure that someone from your neck of the woods thinks winter never starts in Aberdeen?


But then again he seems to think that also applies to all four seasons.



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works ).


Gandalf The White
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 9:59:33 PM


 


Yes, I believe there is only one season here and it’s not any of the four seasons (however that works ).


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It reminds me of this set of cartoons about the weather in Seattle…



 






Source: https://theoatmeal.com/blog/seattle_weather


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 10:49:47 PM


 


Yes, this thread needs a self destruct button, usually around January 10th-17th.  Let's go for a median January 14th for 2022 before the white flag is first raised meaningfully.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


You're talking out of your hoop. 


The White flag does not get raised around that time. 


Mid-January is when focus shifts to talking about 1947.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
BJBlake
Wednesday, November 3, 2021 11:51:21 PM

Anyway - back to the thread: Yes - my bones are aching with pending cold too...With a westerly QBO, a weakfish La Niña, the first winter after the Maunder Minimum, signs of an amplified jet, possible negative NAO, the chances of cold incursions and a locked in blocking pattern emerging are never going to be higher: Yes - if it can happen - it should happen this year. Fingers, legs and eyes crossed... I’m going for a rear-guard (in the face of pending warming in excess of 1.5 degrees ref climate change) rip-roarer of a winter, to send Truimpites for their denial scripts. 


I’ll be happy just to see unsalted and hard pack snow on my lane - like those days of old, unmelted for days...and memorable forecasts of sub 492 DAM air heading over the North Sea towards us, towering snow clouds, like Jan 1987, amid a McKasgillesk narrative of snow on snow - a la 1991...bring it on.


Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Robertski
Thursday, November 4, 2021 8:18:03 AM

Where as I am thinking we need the strat to work for us as a La Nina will probably put us on the wrong side of the jet, with a possible slug shaped high pressure in the mid Atlantic effecting us.

So for me looks milder, but maybe with some colder spells as the jet buckles, hope Im talking rubbish and im wrong.

I think the strat warming will be key...

Gusty
Thursday, November 4, 2021 10:18:42 AM

Gone are the days where I start frantically looking for cold charts to appear in early November when the clocks go back. There have been many years recently where the cold simply isn't cold enough to get to the surface (certainly down here) until after mid January. Thereafter we have a 6 week window of opportunity until around 7th March before the strength of the sun overcomes the thermal lag that takes winter potential into March.


I'm studying Scandinavia this Autumn watching the advance of winter. Its a slow process currently ebbing and flowing in the far north at present, occasionally reaching as far south central Finland and northern Sweden. Currently its devoid of any proper cold air with all stations above 0c (32f) apart from places at altitude in Northern Norway.


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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springsunshine
Thursday, November 4, 2021 10:41:18 AM



I think the strat will be key...


Isn`t it always. Almost all noteable cold spells in the uk follow an SSW event.

springsunshine
Thursday, November 4, 2021 10:49:50 AM


Gone are the days where I start frantically looking for cold charts to appear in early November when the clocks go back. There have been many years recently where the cold simply isn't cold enough to get to the surface (certainly down here) until after mid January. Thereafter we have a 6 week window of opportunity until around 7th March before the strength of the sun overcomes the thermal lag that takes winter potential into March.


I'm studying Scandinavia this Autumn watching the advance of winter. Its a slow process currently ebbing and flowing in the far north at present, occasionally reaching as far south central Finland and northern Sweden. Currently its devoid of any proper cold air with all stations above 0c (32f) apart from places at altitude in Northern Norway.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Scandanavia is very interesting this year. I noticed autumn set in toward the end of august and in the last week much of scandi was under the 0c isotherm. I note the extensive snow cover over northern scandinavia which also arrived early this year and a big increase compared to recent years.The long range models indicate that scandinavia may very well have a very cold winter.


Talking of long range models has anyone else watched Gavin p`s 1st Christmas Forecast/update?


Looks like a BBQ xmas!

ozone_aurora
Friday, November 5, 2021 11:20:05 AM

Be interested to see what past years had unusually early cold spells over Scandinavia and what winters have generally been like over the UK (although I suspect some of the past winters have been mild, but others were cold).

Essan
Friday, November 5, 2021 11:49:52 AM


Scandanavia is very interesting this year. I noticed autumn set in toward the end of august and in the last week much of scandi was under the 0c isotherm. I note the extensive snow cover over northern scandinavia which also arrived early this year and a big increase compared to recent years.The long range models indicate that scandinavia may very well have a very cold winter.


Talking of long range models has anyone else watched Gavin p`s 1st Christmas Forecast/update?


Looks like a BBQ xmas!


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


 


Conversely, in Siberia .....


Snow on strike in the world’s coldest region, as temperatures in Siberia go 4 to 12C above the norm


whilst
Tundra is ablaze in Magadan region in out-of-season wildfire, complicated by wind and zero snow
 
So if we get a really potent Beast from the East, it could very well be a BBQ Christmas!
 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gavin D
Friday, November 5, 2021 12:06:42 PM

Brian Gaze
Friday, November 5, 2021 12:31:30 PM

Snow cover in Rovaniemi  has been very transient so far.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
richardabdn
Saturday, November 6, 2021 8:40:09 AM

Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Winter hasn't started at all in most recent years and all this horror autumn suggests is that this coming season will be even more of a disaster than has been typical in the post-2013 era of relentless bland nothingness. 


Wouldn't be surprised if it is so bad that there isn't even an air frost this side of Christmas and if I could put a bet on this winter seeing less frost and snow overall than the April just gone I would. 


March has been an even worse month than the winter months recently with only 2016 and 2018 seeing lying snow in the past 8 years. November hasn't had snow since 2017.


Shocking time to be a weather enthusiast 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Hungry Tiger
Saturday, November 6, 2021 3:57:24 PM

Still too early to tell as Sun Yat Sen once declared.


I have my own gut feeling which I won't put here.


Lets see how the rest of November pans out.



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Whether Idle
Saturday, November 6, 2021 4:28:14 PM

The sun has the same strength today as February 5th. So technically game on AFAIAC. Having said that a cold shot in November usually favours locations north of the M4 and with 150m + altitude and a few miles from windward coasts.  


Edit - the tweet from Hugo makes a bit more confident we will see at least one cold spell. 😂


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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