The weather in these lands is far more interesting when the AMO is in its negative state. 

Broadly, I'm seeing good potential for some negative NAO days in December (perhaps late Nov too) with associated cold UK weather possibilities, after which time it will come down to how much the polar vortex is interfered with or able to flex its muscles.

Whether a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurs is of little consequence until late Dec, IMO. Rarely is the polar vortex coupled enough with the tropospheric circulation before then for it to drive a persistently zonal regime otherwise.

Recent years have seen many incursions from the north or northwest in Dec. Trouble is, as others has noted, the air from those directions, in early winter, doesn't tend to be cold enough these days for widespread settling snow at low levels.

This year, the La Nina and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) combination should encourage some more pronounced northerlies in terms of fetch and duration. Whether that will be enough to overcome the handicap of climate warming, from the perspective of those seeking snow cover at low elevations, we can only wait and see!

By Feb it could become very mild if the polar vortex is strong.

The sun isn’t the driving factor though, is it?  It’s the thermal lag caused by our proximity to a huge ocean with a warm current flowing in our direction; an ocean that happens to be upstream of winds from any direction save NE to SE.

Im well aware of thermal lag. Hence my comments regarding caveats. 

I've just moved a number of off topic posts to a dedicated thread in the FA here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=22524

As a general message to members and non-members alike (who may be thinking of registering) I will be closing down new forum registrations on November 30th and not reopening them until March. Therefore:

1) If your account is deleted or banned there is no route back

2) If you are a non-member who is thinking of registering then submit your request before the start of December using the link below. I will only consider your application if you use your real name and a corresponding email address.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twofeedback.aspx

For your info -the latest on the Siberian Snow Cover: 

Most of Scandinavia covered except the far south- Gothenburg and Stockholm of course! Probably because I'll be going there!? 

Currently you would have to go about 300 miles north or west of Moscow to find sub-zero temperatures. But by the end of next week it looks like temperatures there will be down to -7C and there will be snow cover as far down as Belarus. Helsinki should get its first taste of winter although Southern Sweden still snow free.

Re: the current output...

Whilst I'd love a really prolonged period of overall cold to last from late November well into the second half of winter, that's hugely unlikely. Even the amazing 2010 spell only managed to last until late December (not even that in some more southern areas). I've seen a few winters with a sprinkle of early promise dissolve into a mild and wet borefest.

I'm hoping (not that this makes any difference) that this late Nov chilly spell is just a scene-setter. We've had plenty of periods over the past couple of decades where the weather has 'got stuck in a rut', or a recurring general pattern. Not usually that favourable, but it's a theme - and something mentioned by climate experts as likely to be more common with climate change. A winter of recurring blocks to our NW/N would be very welcome.

Mid-November has turned out more interesting than I was anticipating, but not in terms of the immediate weather, rather the bigger picture.

Long story short, I've been noticing some sacrificing of the potential depth and persistence of cold weather across the UK in the final third of November, in exchange for increased potential in Dec generally, via raised likelihood of blocking patterns that also have more potential to disrupt the polar vortex.

Notably, blocking highs across the Urals have begun to appear in some model projections for late Nov / early Dec. This has been majorly missed in the past fortnight, as it's a key instigator of stratospheric warming events.

During a La Nina December, an inherent tendency for high pressure to locate west of the UK means that only a weakened polar vortex is required to open the door for some notable -NAO episodes; we don't need a SSW to do the trick.

Uncertainty is still considerable, mind. Especially with the La Nina having changed shape a little in the past week, the largest cold anomalies now being focused in the eastern rather than central Pacific. This takes it away from the 'classic' La Nina configuration and reduces support for a -NAO in Dec while considerably increasing it in Jan-Feb.

That could prove a major wildcard for this winter, if the largest cold anomalies remain in the east Pacific. Also uncertain... the joys of long-range forecasting!

Fascinating stuff, SC, thank you. I hadn’t appreciated the subtleties within a La Niña pattern; always assumed it just favoured a colder start to winter and milder later.

I would quite happily trade a cold spell at the start of winter for something more durable in January and February.

Part Two of the eleventh winter 2021/22 update on Monday was an ENSO/La Nina special 

👍👍👍 Top man Gavin P

Thanks so much my friend. Was an interesting video! 

Looks like it's going to be a mild winter ...... or a cold winter 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10224851/Its-weather-wars-Met-Office-forecasts-mild-winter-BBC-predicts-big-freeze.html 

Over the last few weeks there has been an obvious tendency for the synoptics to resemble the synoptics often seen in the 60's,70's and early 80's.

The MeteoGroup in its winter forecast for November onwards sees 'a weak polar vortex' leading to a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’. The Met Office concentrates on climate change influencing the outcome and bets on a '60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average temperatures across December to February'.

The last few weeks has seen weather indicators which favour the MeteoGroup's outlook.

We have seen -    

                              synoptics suggesting a weaker polar vortex  

                              high Pressure building in the North Atlantic without the ridge into Europe leading to more NW'ly winds

                               ............rather than SW'ly

                              the rapid growth of Arctic Ice cover after a very warm October along the Russian Arctic coastline

                              record snowfallsand temps? in China.

                              record low temperatures in Siberia

                              and......

                              Record Snowfall reported today 25th Nov. in Hokkaido, Japan

                              and.....

Place you bets!

My money would be on a changeable winter, with any cold spells being brief (under a week)

...and you could well be right, Saint!

It's a sign of the times that we get so aerated about the possibility of a snowy late November day!

R

Following all of this closely - I think we'll have to wait til January for a good cold spell.

This December is showing signs of being colder than what we've had for some time - But don't get carried away.

The last week of the month may make a change.

Apologies - I've seen this mentioned somewhere, but can't locate the thread. Mods - please feel free to relocate this.

We've just watched Chris Packham's Winterwatch showing of a classic documentary from the BBC's archive, which takes a look at the worst winter of the 20th century in 1963. It was 60 minutes well spent - strongly recommended if you have not seen it.

1963 - The Big Freeze
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01q9d86/winterwatch-1963-the-big-freeze

Roger