Remove ads from site

Chunky Pea
Saturday, November 6, 2021 5:38:35 PM


 


Winter hasn't started at all in most recent years and all this horror autumn suggests is that this coming season will be even more of a disaster than has been typical in the post-2013 era of relentless bland nothingness. 


Wouldn't be surprised if it is so bad that there isn't even an air frost this side of Christmas and if I could put a bet on this winter seeing less frost and snow overall than the April just gone I would. 


March has been an even worse month than the winter months recently with only 2016 and 2018 seeing lying snow in the past 8 years. November hasn't had snow since 2017.


Shocking time to be a weather enthusiast 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


The weather in these lands is far more interesting when the AMO is in its negative state. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Stormchaser
Saturday, November 6, 2021 8:43:55 PM

Broadly, I'm seeing good potential for some negative NAO days in December (perhaps late Nov too) with associated cold UK weather possibilities, after which time it will come down to how much the polar vortex is interfered with or able to flex its muscles.


Whether a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurs is of little consequence until late Dec, IMO. Rarely is the polar vortex coupled enough with the tropospheric circulation before then for it to drive a persistently zonal regime otherwise.


Recent years have seen many incursions from the north or northwest in Dec. Trouble is, as others has noted, the air from those directions, in early winter, doesn't tend to be cold enough these days for widespread settling snow at low levels.


This year, the La Nina and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) combination should encourage some more pronounced northerlies in terms of fetch and duration. Whether that will be enough to overcome the handicap of climate warming, from the perspective of those seeking snow cover at low elevations, we can only wait and see!


By Feb it could become very mild if the polar vortex is strong.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gandalf The White
Saturday, November 6, 2021 8:51:26 PM


The sun has the same strength today as February 5th. So technically game on AFAIAC. Having said that a cold shot in November usually favours locations north of the M4 and with 150m + altitude and a few miles from windward coasts.  


Edit - the tweet from Hugo makes a bit more confident we will see at least one cold spell. 😂


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


The sun isn’t the driving factor though, is it?  It’s the thermal lag caused by our proximity to a huge ocean with a warm current flowing in our direction; an ocean that happens to be upstream of winds from any direction save NE to SE.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Whether Idle
Sunday, November 7, 2021 12:11:21 AM


 


The sun isn’t the driving factor though, is it?  It’s the thermal lag caused by our proximity to a huge ocean with a warm current flowing in our direction; an ocean that happens to be upstream of winds from any direction save NE to SE.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Im well aware of thermal lag. Hence my comments regarding caveats. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Brian Gaze
Sunday, November 7, 2021 2:55:35 PM

I've just moved a number of off topic posts to a dedicated thread in the FA here:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=22524


As a general message to members and non-members alike (who may be thinking of registering) I will be closing down new forum registrations on November 30th and not reopening them until March. Therefore:


1) If your account is deleted or banned there is no route back


2) If you are a non-member who is thinking of registering then submit your request before the start of December using the link below. I will only consider your application if you use your real name and a corresponding email address.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twofeedback.aspx


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 12:04:28 AM

For your info -the latest on the Siberian Snow Cover: 


Most of Scandinavia covered except the far south- Gothenburg and Stockholm of course! Probably because I'll be going there!? 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


fairweather
Saturday, November 13, 2021 1:04:35 PM

Currently you would have to go about 300 miles north or west of Moscow to find sub-zero temperatures. But by the end of next week it looks like temperatures there will be down to -7C and there will be snow cover as far down as Belarus. Helsinki should get its first taste of winter although Southern Sweden still snow free.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
DPower
Saturday, November 13, 2021 4:19:41 PM
I think it is becoming increasingly obvious that without the intervention of a SSW ( seems to be the case every winter now) there will be little for the snow geese to look forward to. The odd fleeting northerly toppler lasting a couple of days if we are lucky. Mid latitude highs to the south of the UK and Euro highs really do seem to have curtailed the chances of cold synoptics establishing themselves over the UK and now we are becoming more and more dependent on the strat to help mitigate their effects.
A ongoing strong Kelvin wave in the pacific will do us no favours either over the next few weeks.
Deep Powder
Sunday, November 14, 2021 1:23:12 PM
Pre-winter time again! Seems to come round quicker and quicker each year, as I get older.

Just read Brian’s most recent winter update, very interesting.

Some saying negative NAO days in December, this would be good, especially if it could lead to a cold setup.
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Martybhoy
Monday, November 15, 2021 10:04:16 AM
Winter's coming home! This is our year.
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
Saint Snow
Thursday, November 18, 2021 1:15:13 PM

Re: the current output...


Whilst I'd love a really prolonged period of overall cold to last from late November well into the second half of winter, that's hugely unlikely. Even the amazing 2010 spell only managed to last until late December (not even that in some more southern areas). I've seen a few winters with a sprinkle of early promise dissolve into a mild and wet borefest.


I'm hoping (not that this makes any difference) that this late Nov chilly spell is just a scene-setter. We've had plenty of periods over the past couple of decades where the weather has 'got stuck in a rut', or a recurring general pattern. Not usually that favourable, but it's a theme - and something mentioned by climate experts as likely to be more common with climate change. A winter of recurring blocks to our NW/N would be very welcome.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Stormchaser
Friday, November 19, 2021 3:43:56 PM

Mid-November has turned out more interesting than I was anticipating, but not in terms of the immediate weather, rather the bigger picture.


Long story short, I've been noticing some sacrificing of the potential depth and persistence of cold weather across the UK in the final third of November, in exchange for increased potential in Dec generally, via raised likelihood of blocking patterns that also have more potential to disrupt the polar vortex.


Notably, blocking highs across the Urals have begun to appear in some model projections for late Nov / early Dec. This has been majorly missed in the past fortnight, as it's a key instigator of stratospheric warming events.


During a La Nina December, an inherent tendency for high pressure to locate west of the UK means that only a weakened polar vortex is required to open the door for some notable -NAO episodes; we don't need a SSW to do the trick.



Uncertainty is still considerable, mind. Especially with the La Nina having changed shape a little in the past week, the largest cold anomalies now being focused in the eastern rather than central Pacific. This takes it away from the 'classic' La Nina configuration and reduces support for a -NAO in Dec while considerably increasing it in Jan-Feb.


That could prove a major wildcard for this winter, if the largest cold anomalies remain in the east Pacific. Also uncertain... the joys of long-range forecasting!


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gandalf The White
Friday, November 19, 2021 5:00:19 PM


Mid-November has turned out more interesting than I was anticipating, but not in terms of the immediate weather, rather the bigger picture.


Long story short, I've been noticing some sacrificing of the potential depth and persistence of cold weather across the UK in the final third of November, in exchange for increased potential in Dec generally, via raised likelihood of blocking patterns that also have more potential to disrupt the polar vortex.


Notably, blocking highs across the Urals have begun to appear in some model projections for late Nov / early Dec. This has been majorly missed in the past fortnight, as it's a key instigator of stratospheric warming events.


During a La Nina December, an inherent tendency for high pressure to locate west of the UK means that only a weakened polar vortex is required to open the door for some notable -NAO episodes; we don't need a SSW to do the trick.



Uncertainty is still considerable, mind. Especially with the La Nina having changed shape a little in the past week, the largest cold anomalies now being focused in the eastern rather than central Pacific. This takes it away from the 'classic' La Nina configuration and reduces support for a -NAO in Dec while considerably increasing it in Jan-Feb.


That could prove a major wildcard for this winter, if the largest cold anomalies remain in the east Pacific. Also uncertain... the joys of long-range forecasting!


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Fascinating stuff, SC, thank you. I hadn’t appreciated the subtleties within a La Niña pattern; always assumed it just favoured a colder start to winter and milder later.


I would quite happily trade a cold spell at the start of winter for something more durable in January and February.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin P
Friday, November 19, 2021 7:23:17 PM

Part Two of the eleventh winter 2021/22 update on Monday was an ENSO/La Nina special 


 



 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
springsunshine
Friday, November 19, 2021 8:30:42 PM


Part Two of the eleventh winter 2021/22 update on Monday was an ENSO/La Nina special 


 



 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


👍👍👍 Top man Gavin P

Gavin P
Saturday, November 20, 2021 5:49:00 PM


 


👍👍👍 Top man Gavin P


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Thanks so much my friend. Was an interesting video! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Essan
Sunday, November 21, 2021 7:59:01 AM

Looks like it's going to be a mild winter ...... or a cold winter 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10224851/Its-weather-wars-Met-Office-forecasts-mild-winter-BBC-predicts-big-freeze.html 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
polarwind
Thursday, November 25, 2021 10:59:35 AM

Over the last few weeks there has been an obvious tendency for the synoptics to resemble the synoptics often seen in the 60's,70's and early 80's.


The MeteoGroup in its winter forecast for November onwards sees 'a weak polar vortex' leading to a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’. The Met Office concentrates on climate change influencing the outcome and bets on a '60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average temperatures across December to February'.


The last few weeks has seen weather indicators which favour the MeteoGroup's outlook.


We have seen -    


                              synoptics suggesting a weaker polar vortex  


                              high Pressure building in the North Atlantic without the ridge into Europe leading to more NW'ly winds


                               ............rather than SW'ly


                              the rapid growth of Arctic Ice cover after a very warm October along the Russian Arctic coastline


                              record snowfallsand temps? in China.


                              record low temperatures in Siberia


                              and......


                              Record Snowfall reported today 25th Nov. in Hokkaido, Japan


                              and.....


Place you bets!


                              


                              


 


 


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Saint Snow
Thursday, November 25, 2021 11:09:15 AM

My money would be on a changeable winter, with any cold spells being brief (under a week)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
polarwind
Thursday, November 25, 2021 2:24:00 PM


My money would be on a changeable winter, with any cold spells being brief (under a week)


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I think presently I'd have a £10 bet each way.wink


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Roger Parsons
Thursday, November 25, 2021 2:32:13 PM


I think presently I'd have a £10 bet each way.wink


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


 


...and you could well be right, Saint!


It's a sign of the times that we get so aerated about the possibility of a snowy late November day!


R


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Hungry Tiger
Sunday, December 5, 2021 2:46:16 PM

Following all of this closely - I think we'll have to wait til January for a good cold spell.


 


This December is showing signs of being colder than what we've had for some time - But don't get carried away.


 



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
Wednesday, December 8, 2021 10:36:51 PM

The last week of the month may make a change.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Deep Powder
Saturday, December 11, 2021 11:57:05 AM
On a winter note, but continental, my brother who lives in Chamonix is reporting great snow for early December, after a really good run of snowy days over the past week or so. Shame it looks like the freezing level will rise a bit too much next week; hopefully a good base for the season is in place.
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Roger Parsons
Friday, December 24, 2021 3:43:23 PM

Apologies - I've seen this mentioned somewhere, but can't locate the thread. Mods - please feel free to relocate this.

We've just watched Chris Packham's Winterwatch showing of a classic documentary from the BBC's archive, which takes a look at the worst winter of the 20th century in 1963. It was 60 minutes well spent - strongly recommended if you have not seen it.

1963 - The Big Freeze
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01q9d86/winterwatch-1963-the-big-freeze


 



Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Remove ads from site

Ads