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Saint Snow
Thursday, November 18, 2021 1:15:13 PM

Re: the current output...


Whilst I'd love a really prolonged period of overall cold to last from late November well into the second half of winter, that's hugely unlikely. Even the amazing 2010 spell only managed to last until late December (not even that in some more southern areas). I've seen a few winters with a sprinkle of early promise dissolve into a mild and wet borefest.


I'm hoping (not that this makes any difference) that this late Nov chilly spell is just a scene-setter. We've had plenty of periods over the past couple of decades where the weather has 'got stuck in a rut', or a recurring general pattern. Not usually that favourable, but it's a theme - and something mentioned by climate experts as likely to be more common with climate change. A winter of recurring blocks to our NW/N would be very welcome.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Stormchaser
Friday, November 19, 2021 3:43:56 PM

Mid-November has turned out more interesting than I was anticipating, but not in terms of the immediate weather, rather the bigger picture.


Long story short, I've been noticing some sacrificing of the potential depth and persistence of cold weather across the UK in the final third of November, in exchange for increased potential in Dec generally, via raised likelihood of blocking patterns that also have more potential to disrupt the polar vortex.


Notably, blocking highs across the Urals have begun to appear in some model projections for late Nov / early Dec. This has been majorly missed in the past fortnight, as it's a key instigator of stratospheric warming events.


During a La Nina December, an inherent tendency for high pressure to locate west of the UK means that only a weakened polar vortex is required to open the door for some notable -NAO episodes; we don't need a SSW to do the trick.



Uncertainty is still considerable, mind. Especially with the La Nina having changed shape a little in the past week, the largest cold anomalies now being focused in the eastern rather than central Pacific. This takes it away from the 'classic' La Nina configuration and reduces support for a -NAO in Dec while considerably increasing it in Jan-Feb.


That could prove a major wildcard for this winter, if the largest cold anomalies remain in the east Pacific. Also uncertain... the joys of long-range forecasting!


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Gandalf The White
Friday, November 19, 2021 5:00:19 PM


Mid-November has turned out more interesting than I was anticipating, but not in terms of the immediate weather, rather the bigger picture.


Long story short, I've been noticing some sacrificing of the potential depth and persistence of cold weather across the UK in the final third of November, in exchange for increased potential in Dec generally, via raised likelihood of blocking patterns that also have more potential to disrupt the polar vortex.


Notably, blocking highs across the Urals have begun to appear in some model projections for late Nov / early Dec. This has been majorly missed in the past fortnight, as it's a key instigator of stratospheric warming events.


During a La Nina December, an inherent tendency for high pressure to locate west of the UK means that only a weakened polar vortex is required to open the door for some notable -NAO episodes; we don't need a SSW to do the trick.



Uncertainty is still considerable, mind. Especially with the La Nina having changed shape a little in the past week, the largest cold anomalies now being focused in the eastern rather than central Pacific. This takes it away from the 'classic' La Nina configuration and reduces support for a -NAO in Dec while considerably increasing it in Jan-Feb.


That could prove a major wildcard for this winter, if the largest cold anomalies remain in the east Pacific. Also uncertain... the joys of long-range forecasting!


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Fascinating stuff, SC, thank you. I hadn’t appreciated the subtleties within a La Niña pattern; always assumed it just favoured a colder start to winter and milder later.


I would quite happily trade a cold spell at the start of winter for something more durable in January and February.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
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Gavin P
Friday, November 19, 2021 7:23:17 PM

Part Two of the eleventh winter 2021/22 update on Monday was an ENSO/La Nina special 


 



 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
springsunshine
Friday, November 19, 2021 8:30:42 PM


Part Two of the eleventh winter 2021/22 update on Monday was an ENSO/La Nina special 


 



 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ Top man Gavin P

Gavin P
Saturday, November 20, 2021 5:49:00 PM


 


๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ Top man Gavin P


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Thanks so much my friend. Was an interesting video! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Essan
Sunday, November 21, 2021 7:59:01 AM

Looks like it's going to be a mild winter ...... or a cold winter 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10224851/Its-weather-wars-Met-Office-forecasts-mild-winter-BBC-predicts-big-freeze.html 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

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polarwind
Thursday, November 25, 2021 10:59:35 AM

Over the last few weeks there has been an obvious tendency for the synoptics to resemble the synoptics often seen in the 60's,70's and early 80's.


The MeteoGroup in its winter forecast for November onwards sees 'a weak polar vortex' leading to a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’. The Met Office concentrates on climate change influencing the outcome and bets on a '60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average temperatures across December to February'.


The last few weeks has seen weather indicators which favour the MeteoGroup's outlook.


We have seen -    


                              synoptics suggesting a weaker polar vortex  


                              high Pressure building in the North Atlantic without the ridge into Europe leading to more NW'ly winds


                               ............rather than SW'ly


                              the rapid growth of Arctic Ice cover after a very warm October along the Russian Arctic coastline


                              record snowfallsand temps? in China.


                              record low temperatures in Siberia


                              and......


                              Record Snowfall reported today 25th Nov. in Hokkaido, Japan


                              and.....


Place you bets!


                              


                              


 


 


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". โ€“ Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raisedโ€ฆ." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" โ€“ Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.โ€- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Saint Snow
Thursday, November 25, 2021 11:09:15 AM

My money would be on a changeable winter, with any cold spells being brief (under a week)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
polarwind
Thursday, November 25, 2021 2:24:00 PM


My money would be on a changeable winter, with any cold spells being brief (under a week)


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I think presently I'd have a £10 bet each way.wink


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". โ€“ Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raisedโ€ฆ." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" โ€“ Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.โ€- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Roger Parsons
Thursday, November 25, 2021 2:32:13 PM


I think presently I'd have a £10 bet each way.wink


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


 


...and you could well be right, Saint!


It's a sign of the times that we get so aerated about the possibility of a snowy late November day!


R


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Hungry Tiger
Sunday, December 5, 2021 2:46:16 PM

Following all of this closely - I think we'll have to wait til January for a good cold spell.


 


This December is showing signs of being colder than what we've had for some time - But don't get carried away.


 



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
Wednesday, December 8, 2021 10:36:51 PM

The last week of the month may make a change.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
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Deep Powder
Saturday, December 11, 2021 11:57:05 AM
On a winter note, but continental, my brother who lives in Chamonix is reporting great snow for early December, after a really good run of snowy days over the past week or so. Shame it looks like the freezing level will rise a bit too much next week; hopefully a good base for the season is in place.
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Roger Parsons
Friday, December 24, 2021 3:43:23 PM

Apologies - I've seen this mentioned somewhere, but can't locate the thread. Mods - please feel free to relocate this.

We've just watched Chris Packham's Winterwatch showing of a classic documentary from the BBC's archive, which takes a look at the worst winter of the 20th century in 1963. It was 60 minutes well spent - strongly recommended if you have not seen it.

1963 - The Big Freeze
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01q9d86/winterwatch-1963-the-big-freeze


 



Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Snowjoke
Monday, December 27, 2021 10:33:41 AM

1962-63....now that was incredible..will we ever see the like again? 2010 was about the closest we have got in recent decades and that was nowhere near the impact of the Big Freeze. Mindblowing black and white film footage of that simply unthinkable winter. Well worth watching if you missed it!


Was chatting with my Mum via Skype yesterday and she was born in 1940. She clearly remembers 1963 but also the winter of 1947. They were so far removed from modern British winters that it's not even funny!!

springsunshine
Monday, December 27, 2021 5:28:05 PM
The winter of 1962/63 was the coldest winter since 1740 and is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon! 2010 was just one month.The winters of the mid 1980's were the coldest in recent times.
Sure we will get cold spells but prolonged cold lasting most of the winter will be almost impossible in the uk due to the increasing background warming and different weather patterns than before 1990.With the recent dramatic flip in the models we could see this winter being one of the mildest on record.
Spring Sun Winter Dread
Monday, December 27, 2021 5:47:29 PM
Actually I think 2010 possibly also refers to the winter of 2009-10 as well as the Dec 2010 you are perhaps thinking of ?
That winter was the coldest since 1978-79 for the CET and it beat all the 1980s winters by being consistently cold for 3 months with Dec, Jan and Feb all well below average.
A repeat surely is still possible with the right synoptics
Saint Snow
Monday, January 17, 2022 1:55:48 PM

I've given up on this winter now.


Not saying 'winter is over' and there may well be some snow to come, but all enthusiasm has drained from me.


I still say, also, that snow and cold in the lead up to and over Xmas is the nirvana.


But I'd also love to experience a real snow-mageddon event, with at least 30cm of snow over the whole country, which would be totally paralysed for several days.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
Sunday, January 23, 2022 6:37:18 PM


I've given up on this winter now.


Not saying 'winter is over' and there may well be some snow to come, but all enthusiasm has drained from me.


I still say, also, that snow and cold in the lead up to and over Xmas is the nirvana.


But I'd also love to experience a real snow-mageddon event, with at least 30cm of snow over the whole country, which would be totally paralysed for several days.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


My thoughts exactly but sadly not this time around 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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