Gone are the days where I start frantically looking for cold charts to appear in early November when the clocks go back. There have been many years recently where the cold simply isn't cold enough to get to the surface (certainly down here) until after mid January. Thereafter we have a 6 week window of opportunity until around 7th March before the strength of the sun overcomes the thermal lag that takes winter potential into March.

I'm studying Scandinavia this Autumn watching the advance of winter. Its a slow process currently ebbing and flowing in the far north at present, occasionally reaching as far south central Finland and northern Sweden. Currently its devoid of any proper cold air with all stations above 0c (32f) apart from places at altitude in Northern Norway.

 

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I think the strat will be key...

Isn`t it always. Almost all noteable cold spells in the uk follow an SSW event.

Gone are the days where I start frantically looking for cold charts to appear in early November when the clocks go back. There have been many years recently where the cold simply isn't cold enough to get to the surface (certainly down here) until after mid January. Thereafter we have a 6 week window of opportunity until around 7th March before the strength of the sun overcomes the thermal lag that takes winter potential into March.

I'm studying Scandinavia this Autumn watching the advance of winter. Its a slow process currently ebbing and flowing in the far north at present, occasionally reaching as far south central Finland and northern Sweden. Currently its devoid of any proper cold air with all stations above 0c (32f) apart from places at altitude in Northern Norway.

 

Scandanavia is very interesting this year. I noticed autumn set in toward the end of august and in the last week much of scandi was under the 0c isotherm. I note the extensive snow cover over northern scandinavia which also arrived early this year and a big increase compared to recent years.The long range models indicate that scandinavia may very well have a very cold winter.

Talking of long range models has anyone else watched Gavin p`s 1st Christmas Forecast/update?

Looks like a BBQ xmas!

Be interested to see what past years had unusually early cold spells over Scandinavia and what winters have generally been like over the UK (although I suspect some of the past winters have been mild, but others were cold).

Scandanavia is very interesting this year. I noticed autumn set in toward the end of august and in the last week much of scandi was under the 0c isotherm. I note the extensive snow cover over northern scandinavia which also arrived early this year and a big increase compared to recent years.The long range models indicate that scandinavia may very well have a very cold winter.

Talking of long range models has anyone else watched Gavin p`s 1st Christmas Forecast/update?

Looks like a BBQ xmas!

 

Conversely, in Siberia .....

Snow on strike in the world’s coldest region, as temperatures in Siberia go 4 to 12C above the norm

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Nov EC Seasonal update out and not much to say really apart from it's going with the opposite of many of the key drivers, predominantly cyclnoic and with an increasingly +ve NAO trend as the winter progresses. Very mild winter for the US as well. We shall see... pic.twitter.com/10HoRhICaG

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) November 5, 2021

Snow cover in Rovaniemi  has been very transient so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU

 

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Based on many recent years, winter often starts here around February or March.

Winter hasn't started at all in most recent years and all this horror autumn suggests is that this coming season will be even more of a disaster than has been typical in the post-2013 era of relentless bland nothingness. 

Wouldn't be surprised if it is so bad that there isn't even an air frost this side of Christmas and if I could put a bet on this winter seeing less frost and snow overall than the April just gone I would. 

March has been an even worse month than the winter months recently with only 2016 and 2018 seeing lying snow in the past 8 years. November hasn't had snow since 2017.

Shocking time to be a weather enthusiast 

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Still too early to tell as Sun Yat Sen once declared.

I have my own gut feeling which I won't put here.

Lets see how the rest of November pans out.

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The sun has the same strength today as February 5th. So technically game on AFAIAC. Having said that a cold shot in November usually favours locations north of the M4 and with 150m + altitude and a few miles from windward coasts.  

Edit - the tweet from Hugo makes a bit more confident we will see at least one cold spell. 😂

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Winter hasn't started at all in most recent years and all this horror autumn suggests is that this coming season will be even more of a disaster than has been typical in the post-2013 era of relentless bland nothingness. 

Wouldn't be surprised if it is so bad that there isn't even an air frost this side of Christmas and if I could put a bet on this winter seeing less frost and snow overall than the April just gone I would. 

March has been an even worse month than the winter months recently with only 2016 and 2018 seeing lying snow in the past 8 years. November hasn't had snow since 2017.

Shocking time to be a weather enthusiast 

The weather in these lands is far more interesting when the AMO is in its negative state. 

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Broadly, I'm seeing good potential for some negative NAO days in December (perhaps late Nov too) with associated cold UK weather possibilities, after which time it will come down to how much the polar vortex is interfered with or able to flex its muscles.

Whether a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurs is of little consequence until late Dec, IMO. Rarely is the polar vortex coupled enough with the tropospheric circulation before then for it to drive a persistently zonal regime otherwise.

Recent years have seen many incursions from the north or northwest in Dec. Trouble is, as others has noted, the air from those directions, in early winter, doesn't tend to be cold enough these days for widespread settling snow at low levels.

This year, the La Nina and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) combination should encourage some more pronounced northerlies in terms of fetch and duration. Whether that will be enough to overcome the handicap of climate warming, from the perspective of those seeking snow cover at low elevations, we can only wait and see!

By Feb it could become very mild if the polar vortex is strong.

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The sun has the same strength today as February 5th. So technically game on AFAIAC. Having said that a cold shot in November usually favours locations north of the M4 and with 150m + altitude and a few miles from windward coasts.  

Edit - the tweet from Hugo makes a bit more confident we will see at least one cold spell. 😂

The sun isn’t the driving factor though, is it?  It’s the thermal lag caused by our proximity to a huge ocean with a warm current flowing in our direction; an ocean that happens to be upstream of winds from any direction save NE to SE.

 

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The sun isn’t the driving factor though, is it?  It’s the thermal lag caused by our proximity to a huge ocean with a warm current flowing in our direction; an ocean that happens to be upstream of winds from any direction save NE to SE.

 

Im well aware of thermal lag. Hence my comments regarding caveats. 

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I've just moved a number of off topic posts to a dedicated thread in the FA here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=22524

As a general message to members and non-members alike (who may be thinking of registering) I will be closing down new forum registrations on November 30th and not reopening them until March. Therefore:

1) If your account is deleted or banned there is no route back

2) If you are a non-member who is thinking of registering then submit your request before the start of December using the link below. I will only consider your application if you use your real name and a corresponding email address.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twofeedback.aspx

 

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For your info -the latest on the Siberian Snow Cover: 

Most of Scandinavia covered except the far south- Gothenburg and Stockholm of course! Probably because I'll be going there!? 

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Currently you would have to go about 300 miles north or west of Moscow to find sub-zero temperatures. But by the end of next week it looks like temperatures there will be down to -7C and there will be snow cover as far down as Belarus. Helsinki should get its first taste of winter although Southern Sweden still snow free.

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I think it is becoming increasingly obvious that without the intervention of a SSW ( seems to be the case every winter now) there will be little for the snow geese to look forward to. The odd fleeting northerly toppler lasting a couple of days if we are lucky. Mid latitude highs to the south of the UK and Euro highs really do seem to have curtailed the chances of cold synoptics establishing themselves over the UK and now we are becoming more and more dependent on the strat to help mitigate their effects.
A ongoing strong Kelvin wave in the pacific will do us no favours either over the next few weeks.

Pre-winter time again! Seems to come round quicker and quicker each year, as I get older.

Just read Brian’s most recent winter update, very interesting.

Some saying negative NAO days in December, this would be good, especially if it could lead to a cold setup.

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Winter's coming home! This is our year.

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