Deep into FI from GFS ..................no better 

GFS ENS ( 0z) nothing to get excited about , first half of May looks poor 

GFS ENS ( 0z) nothing to get excited about , first half of May looks poor 

Agreed. Cool and unsettled sums it up. Looks like there'll be quite a lot of rain around for those that need it. I just hope that this is a 2 week blip and that the weather settles back down again later in the month. 

Had this been a transition to cold weather in December the GEFS35 would be getting a lot of praise for picking it up so early. The unsettled first half of May has been signalled for several weeks.

Well overnight here can only be described as said deluge and there is a heck of a lot more rain to come by the looks of it. Models are very unsettled now with copious rainfall for many areas.

As it stands, it looks like at least the first half of May will reverse the rainfall shortages in a very big way.

Can you be more specific with your "copious rainfall" comment? When I picked you up on this the other day you admitted what you meant was average rainfall. 

What sorts of quantities do you consider copious? Several inches for the SE? Torrential storms? 

Had this been a transition to cold weather in December the GEFS35 would be getting a lot of praise for picking it up so early. The unsettled first half of May has been signalled for several weeks.

I'm seeing similarities to 2007. 

 

Would be wonderful to see (as would heavy snow in June, or sleet in July - the latter not having happened for 100 years or so down here).

It won't happen though - but I do wonder whether when this cooler spell eventually comes to an end whether there might be a "blow out" event just before it ends!

It certainly makes a real change to get a prolonged cool spell such as we're having now. No frosts for a while, but the "ice warning" message has been a regular feature on my car in the mornings... and given the mid-August sunshine that we're experiencing it feels remarkably pleasant, very reminiscent of being in the Rockies with the low humidity, strong sun and cool air.

Looks like we'll get another 6 days of this pseudo-mountain climate here, but not sure how much longer it can cling on!

It would be an absolue disaster for what is left of our wildlife.

Every second that ticks by while this winter continues, extinguishes millions of insects that will never be born or mature. There will not be enough insects for many birds.  That is why you see less and less swifts, swallows and alike every year.  We are already on the razors edge.

The Field cricket (Gryllus campestris) that we have spent millions on rescuing from the brink?  They sing in April and May on warm nights.  We have not had one warm night!  Any eggs laid later than mid May are not expected to mature in time for winter at this latitude.  It is likely that this insect has been lost this year.  Funds will not be made available again to rescue it now the climate is so F***d and unpredictable.

This is not a 'thing' that would be wonderful to see in my book.  This is lose, lose , lose.

 

 

Can you be more specific with your "copious rainfall" comment? When I picked you up on this the other day you admitted what you meant was average rainfall. 

What sorts of quantities do you consider copious? Several inches for the SE? Torrential storms? 

 

I'm seeing similarities to 2007. 

 

 

It would be an absolue disaster for what is left of our wildlife.

Every second that ticks by while this winter continues, extinguishes millions of insects that will never be born or mature. There will not be enough insects for many birds.  That is why you see less and less swifts, swallows and alike every year.  We are already on the razors edge.

The Field cricket (Gryllus campestris) that we have spent millions on rescuing from the brink?  They sing in April and May on warm nights.  We have not had one warm night!  Any eggs laid later than mid May are not expected to mature in time for winter at this latitude.  It is likely that this insect has been lost this year.  Funds will not be made available again to rescue it now the climate is so F***d and unpredictable.

 

This is not a 'thing' that would be wonderful to see in my book.  This is lose, lose , lose.

Our wildlife, indigenous wildlife that is, will be quite able to cope with what is being thrown at it. It's just a cold April, nothing more. They have evolved to deal with conditions like this and far worse besides. Numbers of individual species may go up and down but that's just the normal course of things.

Several inches over a wide area in the next month I would say yes. I think a lot of the country is likely to be deluged in the next 3 to 4 weeks. Hopefully that will clear out of the way for the summer months.

Several inches “over a wide area”. Can you explain that? Do you mean several inches over the whole UK?

“A lot of the country” is going to be deluged. Most of it? 

 

 

Several inches “over a wide area”. Can you explain that? Do you mean several inches over the whole UK?

“A lot of the country” is going to be deluged. Most of it? 

This is the 16 day accumulated precipitation chart from the latest GFS run: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_384_49.png 

 

This is the 16 day accumulated precipitation chart from the latest GFS run: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_384_49.png 

A couple of inches over 16 days down here. Good. It’s needed. Hardly what I’d term copious!

 

This is the 16 day accumulated precipitation chart from the latest GFS run: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_384_49.png 

 Some plumes starting to show up. 

 

 Some plumes starting to show up. 

 

 

 

 

 

There’s an interesting general warming trend starting around 7 May, with some useful showers thrown in, which means I might finally have chance to reseed the lawn. Been impossible to grow new grass recently due to low soil temps and zero rainfall for weeks on end. 

 

Our wildlife, indigenous wildlife that is, will be quite able to cope with what is being thrown at it. It's just a cold April, nothing more. They have evolved to deal with conditions like this and far worse besides. Numbers of individual species may go up and down but that's just the normal course of things.

 I work with indigeonous wildlife on a professional level and have done for decades.......   

Field crickets have lived here for about 8000 years. Like Butterflies, Orthopterans, specifically Ensiferans, are indicators of environmental health.  Aside from the fact we have reduced their numbers by habitat fragmentation and destruction, something new is occuring.

Of our recent reintrodutions (of which I was part of) to ostensibly suitable historic sites,  unusual weather events in every case have wiped some of those primarily successful reintroductions out without warning. 

You cannot accept that we are breaking climate records on the one hand and also claim that it is 'normal' for our native wildlife on the other.  That is illogical. One of those claims is going to be incompatible with the facts. New climactic phenomena in most cases is not complaint with a biological niche in such a short time frame.  The facts are bearing this out.

Thanks Michael. Yes pretty much this. There's no doubt we are ALL in for a heck of a lot of water over the next few weeks.

I'm afraid you're mistaken - there's plenty of doubt as to how much rain places across these island will get in the next few weeks.

All we can say with some certainty is that there may be showers in the next few days and then it looks like a low may sweep in across the UK over the bank holiday. Beyond that there is less and less certainty.