One step forward, two steps back! The prospective warmth over the near continent for week 2 noted yesterday in the 16-dayer has disappeared in favour of something colder from the north and lots of rain esp week 1 for the UK. Jetstream pattern backs this up, directly across the southern UK for the coming week, then a loop developing which enfolds the UK from the N in the following week.
GFS - LP N Eng Tue 4th 985mb, trough extending back ito the Atlantic until Sun 9th when that winds itself up 985 mb Brittany; brief appearance of ridge from Azores high Wed 12th but subsiding into W-lies unlike yesrerdays' forecast of warmth from the S
GEFS - cool now, briefly back to norm Sat 8th (special offer for the S only!), then cool again to Fri 14th, finally somewhere near norm with none of the warm outliers seen recently. Wet until Wed 12th, generally in S with some big totals, more concentrated around 4th and 9th as above in N, somewhat drier after that.
ECM - similar but places LP on the 9th close to Ireland
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl