16 dayer shows W Europe slowly being released from its current widespread below average, with, in week 2, the blue (below 0C day-night average) disappearing from the Alps and Norway for the first time this year, and light greens* (10C average) across continental Europe and just about into SE England. Rai mostly through the Med, and later NW Britain.
GFS shows HP coming up from the SW and ridging across to Norway by Fri 16th; slight hiatus on Tue 20th after which new HP cell very much centred over UK (1035mb every day Wed 21st to Thu 29th). The fringes of the HP may sporadically produce either a bit of dampness for NW Scotland or colder NE-lies for SE England. The averages shown by GFS probably conceal warm by day and cold by night. Gardeners beware!
GEFS temps climbing from present cold to a degree or two above norm in the S by Fri 23rd (N England perhaps 2 days earlier, Scotland 4 days earlier), after which agreement breaks down; mean close to norm, but unlike yesterday op & control are warm - however counterbalanced by some quite cold runs. Minimal rain, even at end of period where some was shown yesterday
ECM varies from GFS in positioning the HP cells: the first is further SE so some SW-ly gales for Scotland Sun 18th; and the second further NE so general SE-lies by Fri 23rd.
* Light greens, I think; bring green colour-blind, the map at this time of year is rather a confusing tangle of various browns as I see it
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl