16-dayer still showing an ever-so-gradual warm-up from the SW, no more than would be expected for the time of year, though the worst of the cold pool over W Europe is finally dissipating. Dry in week 1, some rain working into the west of Uk in week2, even then most of the heavy stuff either towards Iceland or in a broad band across S Europe,
GFS - current HP weakening and moving to NW with cold N-ly plunge mainly affecting the other side of the N Sea Wed 21st but HP back over UK Fri 23rd ; E-lies then developing linked to LP over Spain, for a while, before pressure drops generally and a 'normal' W-ly pattern emerges with LP 970 mb near Iceland Fri 30th moving in to affect all UK and centred Scotland 990mb Tue 4th
GEFS - temp a little above norm around Sun 25th (but only at norm in N & E), dropping to a few degrees below Wed 28th and staying there until Sun 2nd when (with considerable spread) indication of something warmer. More rain forecast than yesterday, small amounts from Sun 25th and some quite big totals after Fri 30th though not in all runs. The N and Scotland have more persistent rain after the 30th but fewer big totals.
The BBC puts in a dip in temp later this week which doesn't show up on GEFS
ECM (12z after 23rd) Similar to GFS up to Tue 27th when as HP declines more of a N-ly than a W-ly -later edit - thi N-ly then transmutes into LP on the Atlantic as in GFS but the LP Thu 29th is less deep and further S, off W Ireland
Edited by user
19 April 2021 07:39:44
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Reason: Not specified
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