Yellow wind warning out for all of England & Wales, Wed into Thu, an unusually large area, and additionally for this district at least the 40+moh gusts don't disappear until Saturday [MetO f'cast], so unusually prolonged. The FAX chart shows the whole Atlantic in W-ly motion controlled by LP 959mb Thu 11th near Iceland - and on Sat 13th another LP looking ominous near Newfoundland 980 mb.
GFS picks up this LP but has it blocked by HP which slowly calms things down to result in 1035mb Ireland Thu 18th, and the LP deepens quite sharply to 955mb in situ S of Greenland. Unlike yesterday, the HP is shown as ridging off to Norway and bringing in E-lies Sun 21st for England while Scotland stays under SW-lies on the other side of the ridge - and there the ridge stays to end of run Thu 25th.
GEFS consistent with yesterday up to Mon 15th (cool, agreement on returning to norm, definite but small amounts of rain) but uncertainty of temps after that date even more marked. In the S, mean near norm, but both op & control 10C below norm Sun 21st and the op staying there; Scotland milder for a while, and only the op showing a dramatic dip while the control almost as far from norm in the other direction. All are however agreed on mainly dry from 15th.
ECM follows GFS as far ahead as it goes, though the E-ly at end of run is less potent.
It's cherry-picking season! It will be interesting to see if a bruisingly cold E-ly does develop or if this is just GFS winding us up.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl