Tomorrow morning continues to look quite nasty. My hunch is this will turn out to be a significant event in parts of southern and central  England.

Tomorrow morning continues to look quite nasty. My hunch is this will turn out to be a significant event in parts of southern and central  England.

Yes looks nasty and right in the middle of rush hour. 

BBC weather from Susan Powell didnt suggest any warnings in place and strongest winds in Wales and the SW. 

BBC weather from Susan Powell didnt suggest any warnings in place and strongest winds in Wales and the SW. 

There is a warning in place for all of England and Wales from now until tomorrow afternoon.

Cant get Meteociel to work. Anyone else?

 

They've been down due to the OVH debacle. Absolutely awful.

 

They've been down due to the OVH debacle. Absolutely awful.

Of course.  I hadn’t connected the two issues until you said that. Hopefully there’s no irretrievable damage done.

 

Of course.  I hadn’t connected the two issues until you said that. Hopefully there’s no irretrievable damage done.

They've lost a number of servers. Not sure how many cores they have and how they split them across virtual machines. If I was in their boots I would already be moving to AWS or Microsoft Azure.

GFS op looks bitter in a weeks time across the south. Some support too although ECM more of a glancing blow

 

They've been down due to the OVH debacle. Absolutely awful.

OVH? I had to look it up. Turns out to be a company, not a  'TLA'.

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/ovh-fire-destroys-rust-game-data-takes-other-sites-offline/

16-dayer show the really cold air to the east dissipating in week2, and altough the UK gets a bit colder, nto as much as some synoptics suggest. Accompanying pptn map has UK on the dry side some rain in the NW week 1.

GFS broadly consistent with charts of the last few days to start with i.e. present storm moving away after providing W-lies for  a few day until HP moves in from the S Mon 15th and ridges to Norway Fri 19th. However, the devil is in the detail; the ridge is further NW than previously forecast so stronger E-lies develop. Then (new!) Tue 23rd the HP collapses to allow push of Arctic air southwards assisted by LP in Biscay Thu 25th.

GEFS looking quite different and more consistent than yesterday with most runs agreeing on temps for England esp the S below seasonal norm throughout (quite a large amount below Sat 20th, closer to norm Wed 17th and end of run Fri 26th). Something similar in Scotland   but less agreement between runs and more of them close to norm (even above norm for Inverness). Small amounts of rain at any time.

ECM similar to GFS but the HP does not so much collapse as withdraw to the SW

A significant change in the ECM and GFS Ensembles since this time yesterday. Both have greatly reduced the likelihood of anything notably milder coming our way this month, although there is a wide spread of options as early as the 16th. The GEFS mean 850hPa is below average for most of the next 15 days. 
West might be best in the second half of March if you like dry and relatively mild weather. 

It's going to depend on where the high ends up. I expect it to be cold easterlies and bone dry - in time for the Spring planting season !

The east of the UK is particularly at risk from a northerly or easterly over the course of the next couple of weeks in what has been a cool month to date. Three SSW's in January/early February were always going to increase the odds of this occurring. March 2013 springs to mind.

So long as there is some pleasant sunshine on offer I'm not too fussed. 

We are struggling for warmth in the longer term outlook.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=5&bw=1&geoid=50902

OVH? I had to look it up. Turns out to be a company, not a  'TLA'.

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/ovh-fire-destroys-rust-game-data-takes-other-sites-offline/

FWIW and off topic. Just back from daughters Covid test (negative) so back to school tomorrow.

Mentioned this story and she laughed in an ironic way. Rust Game players can be or some are incredibly racist she says. Some of the language would ban me here.

I learn something new every day.

Nick

The east of the UK is particularly at risk from a northerly or easterly over the course of the next couple of weeks in what has been a cool month to date. Three SSW's in January/early February were always going to increase the odds of this occurring. March 2013 springs to mind.

So long as there is some pleasant sunshine on offer I'm not too fussed. 

We are struggling for warmth in the longer term outlook.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=5&bw=1&geoid=50902

 

I agree Steve, although the 06z GFS op run is somewhat taking the mickey IMO. 

I will have the Control please. Likely coolish and dry though 

Jetstream - currently W-ly soon looping with UK getting the N-ly side of the loop from Mon15th (the loop promotes HP to the NW of UK); the loop becoming more extreme Fri 19th with the UK getting E-lies from an almost closed circulation. The jet then straightens out somewhat and forms two branches, one weak and waving N of UK while a broad flow appears across N Africa Sun 21st onwards

GFS op - W-ly veering to N-ly by Mon 15th as HP establishes W of Ireland, and eventually to E-ly in the S as this HP cell moves to Scotland Sat 20th. The HP sinks S-wards but hangs around the UK to end of run Sun 28th, however not in a fixed position so weather influences can come come from any point of the compass depending on its exact position on any given day -though persistent enough to keep any major systems at bay.

GEFS - a lot of variability between runs (much  more so than yesterday) presumably relating to the exact position of HP as above, even from as early as Mon 15th. Mean temp close to norm (or somewhat below in the S esp around Sat 20th). Rather dry throughout.

ECM - similar to GFS though always tending to keep HP further W and by Mon 22nd to the extant of bringing in NW-lies

16-dayer shows the really cold Siberian air dissipating but the near Continent is still well below average (widely 4 to 6C below) so beware if a SE-ly develops. Atlantic OTOH looking mild and the UK sandwiched between. 

GFS shows HP developing over Ireland by Wed 17th which  retreats W-wards by Sun 21st as a (new) very strong N-ly plunge develops over Scandinavia - the E coast could experience the fringes of this. The HP then re-asserts itself as broad ridge over UK Fri 26th before giving way to troughs approaching from the Atlantic

GEFS for the S generally  cool to Sat 20th (SW has a mild spell early on) after which mean moves near to norm (op & control both appear as cold outliers ca Tue 23rd though) but with much variation. . For Scotland, a rollercoaster temp profile above and below norm. All a bit of a muddle but at least everywhere rather dry throughout

ECM ridges the HP to Norway by Sat 20th where it is enough to hold off the cold plunge above for a couple of days to Tue 23rd, and then much weaker and further from UK