Yes, I’d definitely call it underwhelming!  Grey skies with very little sun and chilly all week, but at least it’s been dry!  Spring warmth would be welcomed now!  

It has been a chilly start to the month and disappointing considering we were under warm uppers, but that early Spring North Sea chill did it's worst to us. I think it was Wednesday when temperatures just the other side of the English Channel were in the 16-18C range.

I know it is looking unsettled and windy next week but at least temperatures are going to edge up to near normal. After that, there are hints of a few dryer days and temperatures in the low teens. In any sunshine that will feel pleasant enough and with winds turning westerly, eastern areas should fare a lot better than recently. 

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It's been a really nice start to spring. Not exactly warm, but plenty of sunshine and clear nighttime skies. 

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I hear there's stormy weather on the way. Do I need to buy an ark or merely batten the hatches in preparedness?

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I hear there's stormy weather on the way. Do I need to buy an ark or merely batten the hatches in preparedness?

Batten down the hatches, as that low centre deepens right over the north midlands. Rapid event though, but no less potent for it. After that, you’d better keep that winter coat at hand - judging from tonight’s GFS model output, as the Arctic cold pool, that we have seen spinning about for a while between Siberia and N Scandinavia, looks to finally get it’s act together and come at us from a straight northerly, which could cause a lot of interest, with thunder snow, severe night frosts, but some bright sunny weather with heavy, very wintry convective showers, especially for east facing coastal counties, but more widespread at times. Right out in FI territory, but a plausible block repeating recent past patterns already seen this winter a few times. 

Spring rollercoaster ride ready for boarding.

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Batten down the hatches, as that low centre deepens right over the north midlands. Rapid event though, but no less potent for it. After that, you’d better keep that winter coat at hand - judging from tonight’s GFS model output, as the Arctic cold pool, that we have seen spinning about for a while between Siberia and N Scandinavia, looks to finally get it’s act together and come at us from a straight northerly, which could cause a lot of interest, with thunder snow, severe night frosts, but some bright sunny weather with heavy, very wintry convective showers, especially for east facing coastal counties, but more widespread at times. Right out in FI territory, but a plausible block repeating recent past patterns already seen this winter a few times. 

Spring rollercoaster ride ready for boarding.

Yes, I was wondering when the Spring cold blast would come along. Looks like GFS is now picking up on it. Will be interesting to see how this develops. 

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The best picture of this week's storm is on FAX. A first LP takes a NE-ly trajectory past Ireland to be 959 mb Rockall early Wed and is then boosted by a second LP 965 mb off W Ireland later that day. By Thursday there is a single centre 955mb E of Iceland with a nearly uniform pressure gradient down to N France 1020mb. Gales for all, and fronts pushing through at intervals.

The development is supported by a very strong jet which however weakens quite quickly after Fri 12th , but continuing to run across the UK until Tue 16th when looping takes it (mostly ) N of the UK to Mon 22nd - just a suggestion of a stronger W-ly returning Tue 23rd. 

GFS mirrors Fax above. The gale 'blows itself out' by Sun 14th and an HP centred over the UK appears 1030 mb by Wed 17th. That moves NE to be replaced by another HP 1035mb S Ireland Mon 22nd which however draws back to the Atlantic soon after. No sign of any N-ly blast as posts above suggest in this model, but see ECM below.

GEFS consistent with yesterday's forecast. Temps close to or a little below norm to Mon 15th  (brief pulse of mild air Thu 11th) after which much uncertainty but mostly above norm for a week, but a suggestion of cooling at the very end. Rain mostly Wed 10th - Mon 15th, most runs dry thereafter; no great quantities exc NW Scotland (presumably fronts get blown through too quickly). Inverness chart suggests some spring snow on the hills.

ECM also in agreement with main storm but slower to move HP over the UK , holding it to the W of Ireland Wed 17th with light N-ly flow over UK.

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The best picture of this week's storm is on FAX. A first LP takes a NE-ly trajectory past Ireland to be 959 mb Rockall early Wed and is then boosted by a second LP 965 mb off W Ireland later that day. By Thursday there is a single centre 955mb E of Iceland with a nearly uniform pressure gradient down to N France 1020mb. Gales for all, and fronts pushing through at intervals.

The development is supported by a very strong jet which however weakens quite quickly after Fri 12th , but continuing to run across the UK until Tue 16th when looping takes it (mostly ) N of the UK to Mon 22nd - just a suggestion of a stronger W-ly returning Tue 23rd. 

GFS mirrors Fax above. The gale 'blows itself out' by Sun 14th and an HP centred over the UK appears 1030 mb by Wed 17th. That moves NE to be replaced by another HP 1035mb S Ireland Mon 22nd which however draws back to the Atlantic soon after. No sign of any N-ly blast as posts above suggest in this model, but see ECM below.

GEFS consistent with yesterday's forecast. Temps close to or a little below norm to Mon 15th  (brief pulse of mild air Thu 11th) after which much uncertainty but mostly above norm for a week, but a suggestion of cooling at the very end. Rain mostly Wed 10th - Mon 15th, most runs dry thereafter; no great quantities exc NW Scotland (presumably fronts get blown through too quickly). Inverness chart suggests some spring snow on the hills.

ECM also in agreement with main storm but slower to move HP over the UK , holding it to the W of Ireland Wed 17th with light N-ly flow over UK.

Great summary as ever DEW. Yes the GFS Op has no truck with a northerly in FI but the Control picks up on it instead, but shunts it east a few hundred miles, clipping the UK east coast.

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Wed night storm looking nasty. Hopefully still time for it to shift north a bit. My fencing will not be looking forward to this, but we have been lucky this winter but the luck now appears over

 

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16-dayer showing some rather warm air spreading up across Spain in week 2 while E Europe holds on to well below average temps, so more of a temp gradient in the region of the UK - implies some instability in temps? if not in rainfall which looks to be increasingly more definitely dry as the two weeks progress.

GFS - that storm blows through on Wed/Thu followed by a spell of W-lies before HP noses up from the south, starting to be noticeable Sat 13th and finally covering all UK 1030mb Thu 18th. it then hangs around for a week before flattening out Wed 22nd, S-ly winds never far from W coast and N-ly winds never far from E coast.

GEFS - As yesterday as temps rise from present cool to mild by Mon 15th (bonus mild day Thu 11th for the S) after which the variation between runs is if anything even more marked than yesterday (presumably reflecting whether that HP above is a bit further to east or west). Op & control taking sharply divergent views around Sat 20th, the one 7C above seasonal norm and the other equally below! But rather dry after this week (or after, say, 10 days in Scotland) in any case.

ECM - as GFS but positions the HP Thu 18th just west of Ireland (with higher central pressure 1035mb) so aligns itself with N-ly winds and some of the cooler options for the rest of the UK

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Just going through the release notes for the GFS upgrade. One of the problems it apparently fixes is the cool temperature bias in the existing version. Hopefully we'll see a 40C grid point over the UK in the not too distant future. 

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I notice that all the cold plunges are going to eastern Europe - my GF from Romania said their family have seen several falls of snow over past week and expecting more tonight tomorrow night and Wednesday as well - this was after 20c last week. I notice if we are under HP the cold air usually dives southwards and the low pressure systems plunge down the east of Europe and effect Balkans, Greece and Turkey AGAIN!

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Yellow wind warning out for all of England & Wales, Wed into Thu, an unusually large area, and additionally  for this district at least the 40+moh gusts don't disappear until Saturday [MetO f'cast], so unusually prolonged. The FAX chart shows the whole Atlantic in W-ly motion controlled by LP 959mb Thu 11th near Iceland - and on Sat 13th another LP looking ominous near Newfoundland 980 mb.

GFS picks up this LP but has it blocked by HP which slowly calms things down to result in 1035mb Ireland Thu 18th, and the LP deepens quite sharply to 955mb in situ S of Greenland. Unlike yesterday, the HP is shown as ridging off to Norway and bringing in E-lies Sun 21st for England while Scotland stays under SW-lies on the other side of the ridge - and there the ridge stays to end of run Thu 25th.

GEFS consistent with yesterday up to Mon 15th (cool, agreement on returning to norm, definite but small amounts of rain) but uncertainty of temps after that date even more marked. In the S, mean near norm, but both op & control 10C below norm Sun 21st and the op staying there; Scotland milder for a while, and only the op showing a dramatic dip while the control almost as far from norm in the other direction.  All are however agreed on mainly dry from 15th.

ECM follows GFS as far ahead as it  goes, though the E-ly at end of run is less potent.

It's cherry-picking season! It will be interesting to see if a bruisingly cold E-ly does develop or if this is just GFS winding us up.

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Interesting ECM run this morning I see - okay it's picked one of the colder solutions that have been in its ens suite for a while but shows the potential is there. GFS op has gone cold in the mid-term this morning too, with a little support. 

Mild or cold, down here at least it's not looking particularly wet. Seems to be a theme of recent years, very wet late autumn and winter and then a switch is flicked and we get little or no rain for weeks on end. Totally OT but probably a case to be made for some new reservoirs to help water supply but I doubt that'll happen anytime soon.

 

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I'm surprised there isn't more activity on here this morning given the ECM and GFS Ops runs. Perhaps model fatigue setting in? 

I'm happy for the dry weather to return after this week's unsettled/stormy spell. Mild and dry would be perfect but high pressure is looking increasingly likely to be centred to our north or west which of course would mean cool or even cold weather returning.

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Holy crap, that ensemble came out of nowhere. The most extreme northerly I've ever seen.

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Jetstream - the current strong W-ly soon breaking up into loops which run N of the UK from Sun 14th (though the UK catches the tail end of the loop as a weakish N-ly) After a brief chaotic situation Sat 20th, a limited W/NW flow resumes across the UK, that again looping to the N of the UK by Thu 25th.

GFS op - the current storm blows through leaving a legacy of W then NW winds to Mon 15th. HP as yesterday then moves up from the S (to Ireland 1035 mb by Wed 17th) and continues its movement to form a ridge to Norway Sat 20th with E-ly flow (from a notably cold patch near the Caspian - see 16-dayer). The E-ly supported for a while by LP developing over Italy but broken up by a blast from the N Wed 24th as trough intrudes from the Arctic. At end of run the HP is again re-establishing from the S Fri 26th. A rather messy picture in week 2 - expect further changes.

GEFS - good agreement on cool to Mon 15th then as yesterday anything could happen, in the SE the mean near seasonal norm but that conceals a persistent spread of forecast temps all the way to Fri 26th (on any given day, you can pick 5C above or 5C below mean, often more). Scotland and the W less chaotic; there's agreement on a mild spell Mon 15th - Sat 20th before variability sets in. Mostly dry, a little rain towards the end

ECM - similar to GFS but any E-ly later on only affects the far S as a broader area of HP develops instead of a narrow ridge to Norway

 

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is ‘chaotic’ the new ‘wintery hazards’ ? 🙂

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Cant get Meteociel to work. Anyone else?

 

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Cant get Meteociel to work. Anyone else?

 

No, I think the server is down at the moment.

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is ‘chaotic’ the new ‘wintery hazards’ ? 🙂

Only for those with minds predisposed to chaos

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