Encouraging start to ECM, could get something out of this after all

(Sorry about the Rainbow Bunchie .)

 Anyhow, yes, its close to GEM at t96 but as that's already in FI and matters are "on a knife-edge" LOL, I would expect some big divergence at 120.  Fascinating stuff.

---

I remember the days when most output stopped at +144 and ECM went to +168 only . +120 even back then was regarded as far as one should go .
Amazing fun model watching this year

---

Agreed squish.  This winter (although a big snow-flop for my area thus far), has been fascinating and far more redolent of the 1970s and 1980s than for many a year.  The run up to t120 is a classic cold vs mild battle of yesteryear and makes a change from topplers, Azores Highs and Berne Winters.

---

Do you remember when ECM only started at T+72?

 

Yes, it's been an interesting couple of months.  To be honest anything is better than staring at zonal charts when the only discussion points are how much rain will fall and how windy it might become.

ECM now running into guesswork territory and only developing a weak pressure rise over Scandi.

---

Thought we were heading in a different direction this morning but definitely yes....

---

ECM has taken a step in the same direction as GFS/GEM but, can't quite do the full backtrack from it's overly progressive 00z run. Looks like a partial climbdown and hopefully it will go the whole hog tomorrow. 

---

very consistent across all models GFS, ECM, ICON, CMC to see a series of stalled snowy fronts into western england from the weekend onwards. Very good agreement across all beyond Friday. Which is very unusual.

---

......... as I did which is why I remember the days when it used to snow - not quite ad infinitum and why I go on about it ad nauseum 

---

It's not an acronym. The reference is to the cynical old saying "Jam yesterday, jam tomorrow, but never jam today". So "more jam tomorrow" was, I imagine, suggesting that though the model might be forecasting something good in the future, it's done it before without it actually happening, and this is likely to be another such occasion.

My apologies to the OP if I've totally misinterpreted them!"

---

Yes please.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-4-1-120.png

 

Some cheeky surprises possible at short notice after this weekend, by the look of things.
Roll on Feb... this month has been drab down south.

The first SSW showing its impact on output accuracy earlier this month:
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html 

Another warming under way after tomorrow...
Maybe this time we hit the jackpot.

I’ve never seen the Control and Op match each other so closely for virtually the whole of the run in terms of 850s.

Hopefully they are setting the trend and the rest of the members will follow suit.

GEM performing better than GFS and its parallel I see.

And UKMO matching it over that range

That is remarkable especially when they both go so cold.

 

---

Indeed. I haven’t had chance to check wether they match each other or not synoptically.

that will have to wait until I’ve eaten dinner 🍲 

GEM has been holding the torch for this from the start. Lets all pray it has nailed this. ECM has been all over the place!

 

---

On the subject of ensemble data, the 12z GFS suite is the first in quite a few runs to have 20 members dipping to or below -10°C (t850hPa) here for some time.

---

Another cracking run the 12z gfs although I think it can/will do better. Plenty of eye candy to enjoy in future runs I'm sure. Ecm slowly getting there.

Ive always rated the CMA  its worth looking at the 12z run as it takes the GEM route to a very tasty conclusion (seen above)

---

Is the GEM going to pull of a giant killing of FA cup proportions?

---

I think many of the models, even the most trusted ones, have been all over the place at one time or another for a considerable while now, even going back to the late part of November.

The general pattern of this winter seems to have been very difficult for the models to get a proper grip of when it comes to what happens at more than a few days ahead.

---

I fancy a final played out in a blizzard between GEM and CMA

---

That diagram of the ENS is so much clearer - could you send me the link to it please? :)

---