Yes please.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-4-1-120.png

Some cheeky surprises possible at short notice after this weekend, by the look of things.
Roll on Feb... this month has been drab down south.

I’ve never seen the Control and Op match each other so closely for virtually the whole of the run in terms of 850s.

Hopefully they are setting the trend and the rest of the members will follow suit.

The first SSW showing its impact on output accuracy earlier this month:
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

Another warming under way after tomorrow...
Maybe this time we hit the jackpot.

GEM performing better than GFS and its parallel I see.

And UKMO matching it over that range

I’ve never seen the Control and Op match each other so closely for virtually the whole of the run in terms of 850s.

Hopefully they are setting the trend and the rest of the members will follow suit.

That is remarkable especially when they both go so cold.

 

That is remarkable especially when they both go so cold.

 

that will have to wait until I’ve eaten dinner 🍲 

GEM has been holding the torch for this from the start. Lets all pray it has nailed this. ECM has been all over the place!

Another cracking run the 12z gfs although I think it can/will do better. Plenty of eye candy to enjoy in future runs I'm sure. Ecm slowly getting there.

Ive always rated the CMA  its worth looking at the 12z run as it takes the GEM route to a very tasty conclusion (seen above)

GEM has been holding the torch for this from the start. Lets all pray it has nailed this. ECM has been all over the place!

 

I think many of the models, even the most trusted ones, have been all over the place at one time or another for a considerable while now, even going back to the late part of November.

The general pattern of this winter seems to have been very difficult for the models to get a proper grip of when it comes to what happens at more than a few days ahead.

Is the GEM going to pull of a giant killing of FA cup proportions?

I fancy a final played out in a blizzard between GEM and CMA

I’ve never seen the Control and Op match each other so closely for virtually the whole of the run in terms of 850s.

Hopefully they are setting the trend and the rest of the members will follow suit.

That diagram of the ENS is so much clearer - could you send me the link to it please? :)

12z GEFS update looked similar to recent ones. No decisive shift into the very cold bucket yet and I'd still favour a cold or rather cold period during the first third of Feb. Snow mostly in the north.

Thee 18z ICON out to 120.  Looks to be packed with slider lows that could bring snow (and cold rain ) on an axis aligned WNW - ESE. to the southern half of the UK. Fascinating.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=1&carte=1

Looking far ahead that really deep cold are in China and Japan covered in deep cold and the 8C uppers goes down as far to the tail shape of northern Philippines before the tropical warmth push back again. It would be classed as cold for them at 20C day time or so in north Luzon island.

Thee 18z ICON out to 120.  Looks to be packed with slider lows that could bring snow (and cold rain ) on an axis aligned WNW - ESE. to the southern half of the UK. Fascinating.

Looks mild until the weekend?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=21&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=45&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=69&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=93&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=117&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)