The GFS 12z shows what can happen with subtle differences at the 120t range. The 00z was way more progressive, the 6z slowed down the progression and the 12z has halted it. As a result, heights build to our NE and bingo.
It all hinges on the ridge from the GH which most models are forecasting to build southwards this weekend. Will it get blasted away as in ECM 00z & GFS 00z or will it be strong enough to make the incoming Atlantic low slide as GEM has been supportive of in the last few runs?
Very much in the balance I think. More runs needed as ever and the ECM 12z will be interesting.