I have a feeling zeta could become the first Cat 5 of the season.

Well, I hope not as I'm currently sitting in a jungle cabin approx 10km west of Cancun in the Yucatan peninsula.  Wind just started to pick up. Forecast Cat1 on landfall here but still room to strengthen yet.

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Well, I hope not as I'm currently sitting in a jungle cabin approx 10km west of Cancun in the Yucatan peninsula.  Wind just started to pick up. Forecast Cat1 on landfall here but still room to strengthen yet.

Good to hear from you. 10km west may be a good place to be. Stay safe.

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Well, I hope not as I'm currently sitting in a jungle cabin approx 10km west of Cancun in the Yucatan peninsula.  Wind just started to pick up. Forecast Cat1 on landfall here but still room to strengthen yet.

If does it won't be until it hits the GOM. 

Even as a ts it's looking impressive on the satellites, and on the large side to.

Thank you Doc and Pictures...

Left Isla Holbox yesterday and preparations were already starting for the storm, and most importantly the storm surge, being only a couple of metres max above sea level. There was still a lot of standing water in the 'streets' (they're basically dirt roads) from storms Gamma and Delta.

As for Zeta, the rainfall radar is really impressive in size and shape, though very little sferics showing up. Since i'm under quite a few trees in this cabin, hoping that Delta cleared the weak wood and didn't leave any in the canopy. Otherwise, stocked up with candles, food, and drinking water so should be good otherwise.

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I have a feeling zeta could become the first Cat 5 of the season.

A bold prediction compared to most models - but they've been caught out by rapid intensification several times this season. I hope it keeps down to cat1/2 as it now appears to be heading for a direct hit on New Orleans.

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A bold prediction compared to most models - but they've been caught out by rapid intensification several times this season. I hope it keeps down to cat1/2 as it now appears to be heading for a direct hit on New Orleans.

Yes, I thought that was a brave call. The track of Zeta doesn’t seem to offer sufficient time for it to intensify that fast. Clipping the Yucatan peninsula will have weakened it a little, then it’s only got a limited time over warm water before landfall on the Gulf coast.

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A bold prediction compared to most models - but they've been caught out by rapid intensification several times this season. I hope it keeps down to cat1/2 as it now appears to be heading for a direct hit on New Orleans.

It appears to be moving rather fast so I'm now doubtful. Cat 3 at  best if it maintains this forward speed.

Unusually fast, I'd say; it's forecast through New Orleans as a hurricane later today and gone up to Ohio the following day

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Zeta has strengthened significantly over past 12 hours from 60mph to 85mph and is expected to reach 100mph over next 6-12 hours time which takes it into a cat 2 storm. Only yesterday Zeta was forecast to remain a tropical storm or cat 1 and best with max winds of 75mph! So just shows how quickly a storm can strengthen.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/280900.shtml?

 

  

Lost track of the amount of storms that have developed and or gone into the gulf this season but well above average I should say...!?

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The forecast hurricane Zeta:

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Microwave imagery from a few hours ago showed #Zeta with an organized low-level eyewall that is completely closed. pic.twitter.com/yEgwCOtSBl

— Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) October 28, 2020

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Sustained winds now 105mph.

Sustained winds now 105mph.

UPDATE: very close to a cat 3 now with sustained winds of 110mph - just 1mph short of cat 3 status.

 

Lost track of the amount of storms that have developed and or gone into the gulf this season but well above average I should say...!?

5th landfall in Louisiana this year - yes, a record

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110mph on coast! - This wasn't on forecast!? Just shows how quickly a hurricane can strengthen!?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282100.shtml? 

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... and these are waves generated by hurricane Epsilon reaching Cornwall (and daredevil surfers)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-54726717

 

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Goodness me Zeta is now over northern Georgia!? - Moving 39mph? So fast!?

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ANother possible Gulf system possible next week. Would be called Eta

 

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ANother possible Gulf system possible next week. Would be called Eta

 

@ 300z look at the Gulf of Mexico yet again!?

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Prospective Eta now up to 90% probability of becoming a TS, and forecast to head for landfall in Nicaragua/ Honduras. It would be the 28th named storm, equalling the record of 2005, but since one of the 2005 storms was never named (it was out in the Atlantic and only picked up after the event) this would be the first use of Eta.

 

Meanwhile the most powerful storm of 2020, typhoon Goni, is threatening the Phillippines after a remarkable intensification, from 30 mph TD to 175mph super-typhoon in 54 hours.  It is likely to cause a major disaster with a direct hit on Manila being cat 4 at landfall on Sunday.

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