Yes I looked at the SST's in the Gulf - how come it's 72'F of 21c off the northern Gulf of Mexico - it's some 10c cooler than other parts? is it because of colder weather or previous storms?

Combination of colder weather, Autumn but mostly the previous storms upwelling colder deeper water.

 

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I can see Delta becoming the first Cat5 of the year.

 

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Suprised there isn't an invest to the west of the lesser antilies. Increasing active T storms in a trough.

 

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Wow that was rapid even by the rapid intensification parameters:

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The Cancun region is going to be steam-rollered.

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Increased to 140mph now but a rather small hurricane with hurricane force winds only out to 25 miles from centre.

Some good quality cameras to keep a watch on over the coming day or so as it moves towards cancun..

https://webcam-travel.com/live-webcam-cancun-panoramic-view-to-resort/ 

Increased to 140mph now but a rather small hurricane with hurricane force winds only out to 25 miles from centre.

Some good quality cameras to keep a watch on over the coming day or so as it moves towards cancun..

https://webcam-travel.com/live-webcam-cancun-panoramic-view-to-resort/

Winds increased further to 145mph sustained!! 

 

Winds increased further to 145mph sustained!! 

Delta taking a more westerly track and now winds are forecast to get up to 155mph in next 12hrs before making landfall - that is a cat 5 storm!?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/062034.shtml?

It really doesn't want to go further west or else Houston could be in the firing line.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203711_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Delta taking a more westerly track and now winds are forecast to get up to 155mph in next 12hrs before making landfall - that is a cat 5 storm!?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/062034.shtml?

It really doesn't want to go further west or else Houston could be in the firing line.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203711_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

No 155mph is top end category 4 hurricane. Winds have to hit 158mph for category 5.

 

No 155mph is top end category 4 hurricane. Winds have to hit 158mph for category 5.

Sorry 3mph out!

However yesterday this was only forecast to reach a cat 1 or 2 storm. This morning it was upgraded to a cat 3 storm and now this afternoon/evening it's forecast to reach a Cat 4 status so what next cat 5!? The gulf Coast has had it bad this season! 'Delta' is really powering up like old fun every update  isn't it!?

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Delta going through a strengthening cycle. Should reach cat 3 again tomorrow am

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In case, like me, you wondered

According to the World Meteorological Organization, if the name Delta needs to be retired from the list of hurricane names as a result of its impact on Mexico and Louisiana, it would be retired as “Delta 2020” and Delta would continue to be used when the Greek alphabet is needed again.

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Cat 3 landfall in Louisiana later today, in area already hit this year. Big storm surge seems to be causing the most worry

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In the end landfall at cat 2, moving inland and declining rapidly. The 10th named storm to make US landfall this year, geatest number since naming system began (1916)

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In the end landfall at cat 2, moving inland and declining rapidly. The 10th named storm to make US landfall this year, geatest number since naming system began (1916)

The cooler, shallower shelf waters, increasing shear and the persistence of a rather shredded irregular eye suppressed Delta near landfall. A decent performance actually by the main tropical-biased models, both in intensity and location of landfall.

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SPC going all ‘Greek’ with Delta. Maybe this is a ‘Beta’ test? 😄

‘...Tropical Cyclone Delta...

Tropical Cyclone Delta continues its northeast movement across LA early this morning. As TC Delta lifts into northwest MS later by 18z, significant mid-level drying will surge east and the primary corridor of deepest convection should become focused from south-central AL into west-central GA.

Latest model guidance does not allow appreciable buoyancy to develop immediately ahead of Beta over northern MS, and forecast soundings strongly suggest updrafts will struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning. ‘

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Looks to me like we have a tropical depression.
Still only an area of interest, but has a well defined closed circulation and some (albeit highly sheared) deep convection. Surely meets requirements for TD?

 

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Just looking at the GFS 06Z out to 240hrs from northern Hemisphere:

Shows quite a significant amount of northern blocking which goes with the -AO/NAO we are in - also anyone notice something brewing off the SE seaboard of the USA - nothing shown up on NOAA's NHC as yet but it's been picked up by the GFS:

I remember Hurricane Sandy between 22nd Oct and 4th November 2012 very well which caused havoc off the eastern seaboard! - I wonder if this could be a repeat!?

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NHC has mid-Atlantic disturbance suddenly promoted to 90% chance of TD in 5 days. Could develop into the one shown off New England on GFS chart for Sun 25th

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Would be Epsilon. Dont know what letter comes after that!

 

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Maybe Oopsilon, as in oops, I've made too many this year! 

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