DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 October 2020 19:24:15

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Would be Epsilon. Dont know what letter comes after that!



Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota ...


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Quantum
19 October 2020 10:24:37

It should be classified next update. Very obviously a TC or possibly a STC now.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 October 2020 19:09:36

Now chriatened Epsilon and forecast to be a hurricane threatening Bermuda by FRiday


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
21 October 2020 06:34:45

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Now chriatened Epsilon and forecast to be a hurricane threatening Bermuda by FRiday



... but now missing Bermuda to the north, Still forecast to be a hurricane on Saturday as it recurves, and making rapid progress in our direction on Sunday as it declines to tropical storm.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
21 October 2020 12:06:15
Well hurricane epsilon is looking great on the satellite. Currently a cat 1 with sustained 85mph winds but expected to strengthen later.

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The Beast from the East
21 October 2020 18:01:36


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
21 October 2020 18:20:33

Epislon is really wierd, I mean really really wierd.


Its a TC that has interacted with a large scale baroclinic zone apparantely without detriment.


So you have what looks like a large ET with cold, warm and occluded fronts on top of a small TC. Closest I've seen to this hybrid like structure was Sandy during transition. But this is even wierder because the TC is fully tropical and not transitioning at all.


So we somehow have a cyclone that is capable of intensifying using both barotropic and baroclinic processes simbultaneously?!


 


Never seen anything like it.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
21 October 2020 23:19:37
Major hurricane now 115mph sustained
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 October 2020 06:30:33

Nice map of rainfall expected from Epsilon in its Atlantic phase


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/epsilon-now-a-category-1-hurricane-bermuda-under-tropical-storm-warning/


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Bolty
22 October 2020 14:17:06

Posted this in the model thread, but it looks like the extratropical remnants of Hurricane Epsilon will pass by to the north west of Scotland around late Tuesday-early Wednesday next week. If it trends southwards, this could be particularly nasty, IMO:



Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
The Beast from the East
23 October 2020 20:37:47


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 October 2020 08:40:18

Not quite TS status yet, but very likely yo become Zeta, passing by the W end of Cuba and curving round to Florida panhandle


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/disturbance-in-the-western-caribbean-likely-to-become-tropical-storm-zeta/


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
24 October 2020 11:26:15

95L getting more organised. Should be named Zeta perhaps even today


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
24 October 2020 16:12:05

Epislon taking on a 'medicane' like structure as it moves into cold water but still in a low shear environment.


As such the convection is shallower and the higher coriolis force is able to wrap the storm into a smaller tighter structure.


Cold water, imo is not what will kill Epislon, it will be wind shear.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 October 2020 07:12:10

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Cold water, imo is not what will kill Epsilon, it will be wind shear. 



But not before Epsilon has injected a lot of energy into the Atlantic to affect the UK this week.


Meanwhile, Zeta has officially been christened in the Caribbean. NHC has its track a little further W than yesterday so it approaches New Orleans as a hurricane on Tue/Wed


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
25 October 2020 10:32:08

While this is an above average hurricane season, the total energy levels released are not exceptionally high because many of the storms have only had fairly short lives before coming ashore. 


The current ACE score is 134.7 which is above average but well below a hyperactive season. That figure will rise further in the next few days to exceed 140. I would expect us to reach at least 150 this season. You need to get to 152.5 for it to be an extremely active season.


By comparison the only other season with as many storms as this year (2005) had an ACE score of 250. The record year is 1933 with 259.


http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

The Beast from the East
25 October 2020 17:00:24

Epsilon still a Hurricane so far north!


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
26 October 2020 11:00:01
Zeta about to become a hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085419.shtml?cone#contents 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


picturesareme
26 October 2020 17:30:49
GFS looks to have another hurricane forming in the southwest Caribbean Sea around 4th of November with it moving northeast over Jamaica
picturesareme
26 October 2020 17:31:59
I have a feeling zeta could become the first Cat 5 of the season.
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