BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet, windy and cool in the north at times

_________________________________

Wednesday 1 July – Sunday 5 July

Fresh and windy, with low pressure always nearby

The month will start with a shallow area of low pressure overhead, and several fronts in the vicinity. Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly cloudy and fresh, with patchy light rain across Northern Ireland and Scotland, and showers across many parts of Wales and England. On Thursday night, a front will push in from the Atlantic and into Northern Ireland, bringing brisk winds and rather persistent rain here into Friday morning. Friday will be a wet day for many as the front tracks eastwards into Scotland and gradually into northern England and Wales later in the day. The exception will likely be for southeast England, where the front is unlikely to reach until Friday night, by which point the rain will become increasingly patchy. It will remain fresh and windy over the weekend.

Friday's front will linger over England and Wales on Saturday, bringing mostly cloudy skies and patches of light rain. On Sunday, an another area of low pressure will deepen as it heads in from the Atlantic and towards the northwest of the UK. Strong winds can be expected almost everywhere, but particularly for northern Scotland. There will be rain too, being more persistent and widespread for Northern Ireland and Scotland, whilst southeast England may avoid the rain entirely.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 12 July

Cool then wet and windy in the north from mid-week

The deep area of low pressure that will affect the UK over the preceding weekend will move away into Scandinavia on Sunday night. This will allow a northerly flow to develop over the UK for the first few days of the week. With cooler air feeding in from the north, it will turn fairly cool for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a scattering of light showers blowing in from the north, too. From mid-week onwards, a few low pressures are expected to track in once more from the Atlantic, bringing some rain and breezy conditions to the UK at times through the remainder of the week.

However, these unsettled periods may be largely confined to Scotland and Northern Ireland, whilst southern parts of England and Wales may stay mainly dry. This is because high pressure over western Europe is expected to extend into the south of the UK, forcing fronts in the north to weaken as they nudge in from the northwest. As a result, the wettest and windiest weather is likely to be across northern areas from mid-week through to the weekend, whilst Southeast England should see some dry and calm days.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 26 July

A north-south split; then drier and warmer later

A continuation of the previous week is expected as we head into the middle of the month, with a possible north-south split in the weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to track close to or just to the north of Scotland, and so wet and windy spells look likely across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, high pressure should still be holding some influence over the southern half of the UK. This should largely keep fronts at bay, hence allowing for mainly dry and calm conditions across southern England and Wales. The south is also where there is the greatest chance of temperatures trending slightly above the seasonal normal. Meanwhile, in Scotland, temperatures are generally expected to be close to, or just below the seasonal norm, with banks of cloud impeding the Sun's warmth.

Deeper in July, a pattern change is expected. High pressure should build across the UK by the week of Monday 20th, and this should bring drier, calmer and warmer conditions more extensively, including to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

For those looking for another heatwave, the latter part of the month has the greater chance of seeing one. Climatologically, late-July is indeed a favourable time for hot weather in the UK. In July 2019, after a few fairly mundane weeks of weather with temperatures mainly peaking in the low 20s Celsius, late-July entertained record-breaking heat. The UK's highest temperature ever recorded was set at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25th July 2019, with 38.7C. Though there are no tangible signs of any hot periods in July 2020 yet, late-July may be a reasonable candidate for one.

Further ahead

We will take closer look at the potential for widespread dry and hot weather in late-July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 7 Jul - Thursday 16 Jul

A general trend to more settled conditions is likely by the start of this period with the dominance of higher pressure across the UK. Whilst scattered showers, or even spells of rain with strong winds, will continue to affect the west, and perhaps the whole country at times, these are likely to be fewer and further between than of late. Such spells look likely to become increasingly confined to the northwest as we go later into the period. Temperatures will remain around average for the time of year; often rather cool in the north and in more unsettled spells, to rather warm, or even locally warm and humid, in drier, sunnier weather in the south.

Friday 17 Jul - Friday 31 Jul

Most likely continuing settled overall, but confidence in the longer range forecast is low (typical for this time of year). Plenty of dry, fine weather around, with the most likely scenario seeing rain increasingly moving away from the northwest bringing more prolonged settled weather here too. A greater likelihood than earlier in the month of warm or even hot episodes across the south, especially southeast, with a chance, albeit still low, of thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to be above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 8 Jul - Friday 17 Jul

Remaining largely settled across most southern and southeastern parts on Wednesday with a good deal of warm sunny spells. Further north, there is an increasing chance of some rain arriving throughout the day, perhaps with strong winds. Looking further ahead, a continuation of the north/south split seems most likely. Northern and northwestern areas are expected to see further spells of rain, accompanied by strong winds, these possibily spreading to some other areas at times. Further south, there should be more in the way of dry weather, though even here, the possibility of some rain or showers still exists. Temperatures are likely to be below average for most northern areas, though hovering near or locally above in the south.

Saturday 18 Jul - Saturday 1 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average or slightly below, with any periods of particularly warm weather being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through much of July

_________________________________

Saturday 4 July – Sunday 12 July

Unseasonably strong winds, then rather cool

This weekend will feel more autumnal than summer-like, with dull and cloudy skies, and several fronts bringing outbreaks of rain and showers to much of the country. The jet stream will sit right overhead, and the jet will be responsible for the development of a deep area of low pressure, which will approach the north of the UK on Saturday night and track across northern Scotland through Sunday. This will bring unseasonably strong winds to much of the country, particularly across Scotland and northern England. With tree in full-leaf, fallen branches and damaged trees may cause some localised travel and power disruption.

The deep area of low pressure will move away to the northeast into Scandinavia on Monday. This will allow for a northwesterly flow to air to drive across the UK, introducing cooler air for Monday and Tuesday. There will also be showers blowing in from the north on Monday, but Tuesday should be a drier and sunnier day, with just a scattering of showers for the northern half of the UK. From Tuesday night onwards through the rest of week, there is a constant threat of low pressures moving in from the Atlantic. This seems most likely on Wednesday, when fronts will give rain and brisk winds, mainly to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

This should move through quickly though, allowing for a day or two of drier, calmer weather, around Thursday. The next low pressure area will threaten from the west later in the week, likely giving another unsettled spell of weather, mainly to Northern Ireland and Scotland once again. South and southeast England may avoid much of the rain, and it should turn slightly warmer here compared to further north.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 19 July

Alternating dry periods and wet, breezy spells

A continuation of the preceding week is expected as we head into the middle of the month, with a possible north-south split in the weather. Areas of low pressure are expected to track close to or just to the north of Scotland, and so wet and windy spells look likely across the north of the UK. However, interludes of high pressure are expected in between the low pressures, bringing some drier, calmer days too.

High pressure will likely hold greater influence over the southern half of the UK, and this should largely keep fronts at bay, hence allowing for more dry, calm days across England and Wales. The south is also where there is the greatest chance of temperatures trending slightly above the seasonal normal. Meanwhile, in Scotland, temperatures are generally expected to be close to, or just below the seasonal norm, with banks of cloud and rain often impeding the Sun's warmth.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 2 August

Changeable, but turning dry and warm into August

The changeable weather expected through early and mid July is forecast to persist into the fourth week of the month. This means there will likely be alternating spells of wet and breezy weather, interspersed with some dry, calm days. With low pressures mainly tracking near the north of the UK, Northern Ireland and Scotland will likely be wetter and windier than southern areas. Towards the end of July, a pattern change is expected. High pressure should build across the UK around the turn of the month, and this should bring drier, calmer and warmer conditions more extensively, including to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

For those looking for another heatwave, the late-July into early-August has the greater chance of seeing one. Climatologically, late-July is indeed a favourable time for hot weather in the UK. In July 2019, after a few fairly mundane weeks of weather with temperatures mainly peaking in the low 20s Celsius, late-July entertained record-breaking heat. The UK's highest temperature ever recorded was set at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25th July 2019, with 38.7C. Though there are no tangible signs of any hot periods yet, late July or early August may be a reasonable candidate for one.

Further ahead

We will take the forecast into the final month of summer, and take a closer look at the potential for widespread dry and hot weather in late-July or early-August.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office CPF June update

July to September

Temperature summary

For July-August-September as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for July-August-September will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 10%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jas-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For July-August-September as whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jas-v2.pdf

Thursday 9 Jul - Saturday 18 Jul

Through Thursday and Friday it will most probably be cloudy and fairly windy with an area of rain pushing northeast across the UK. Looking further ahead, a north/ south split across the UK seems most likely. Northern and northwestern areas are expected to see further spells of rain, accompanied by strong winds, with the possibility of these spreading to some other areas at times. Further south however, there should be more in the way of dry weather, though even here, there is still the possibility of some showers, or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be either around or on the warmer side of average, with the warmest conditions likely in the southeast.

Sunday 19 Jul - Sunday 2 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 10 Jul - Sunday 19 Jul

Cloudy for many with showers, these heaviest in eastern parts where the winds may be stronger also. Becoming largely dry in western areas with some good spells of sunshine. Looking further ahead, a north/ south split across the UK seems most likely. Northern and northwestern areas are expected to see further spells of rain, accompanied by strong winds, with the possibility of these spreading to some other areas at times. Further south however, there should be more in the way of dry weather, though even here, there is still the possibility of some showers, or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be either around or on the warmer side of average, with the warmest conditions likely in the southeast.

Monday 20 Jul - Monday 3 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 11 Jul - Monday 20 Jul

Isolated light showers in the north to start, but elsewhere looking dry with bright or sunny spells. Winds staying light and temperatures rather cool to average. Looking further ahead, a north/ south split across the UK seems most likely. Northern and northwestern areas are expected to see further spells of rain, accompanied by strong winds, with the possibility of these spreading to some other areas at times. Further south however, there should be more in the way of dry weather, though even here, there is still the possibility of some showers, or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be either around or on the warmer side of average, with the warmest conditions likely in the southeast.

Monday 20 Jul - Monday 3 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Never thought it would get this hot in NE Canada - Montreal could reach 35c by end of this week!?

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/quebec/montreal

(Can't find N. America reports' thread sorry!)

Many states to hit the +40c mark

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/prolonged-heat-to-bake-southwestern-central-us/770392

Sunday 12 Jul - Tuesday 21 Jul

Through the majority of this period, it will be mostly dry and settled for many areas, especially in the south of the UK. More unsettled conditions with spells of rain and strong winds may affect the north and northwest at times. These unsettled conditions could spread to other parts of the UK later in this period, but widespread unsettled conditions are unlikely. Temperatures are likely to be mostly around normal, although it may become warm for a time in the south and perhaps very warm in the southeast. Towards the end of the period, conditions may start to trend towards more generally settled weather for most areas, but with the possibility of the occasional bout of wetter weather.

Wednesday 22 Jul - Wednesday 5 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 13 Jul - Wednesday 22 Jul

Through the majority of this period, it will be mostly dry and settled for many areas, especially in the south of the UK. More unsettled conditions with spells of rain and strong winds may affect the north and northwest at times. These unsettled conditions could spread to other parts of the UK later in this period, but widespread unsettled conditions are unlikely. Temperatures are likely to be mostly around normal, although it may become warm for a time in the south and perhaps very warm in the southeast. Towards the end of the period, conditions may start to trend towards more generally settled weather for most areas, but with the possibility of the occasional bout of wetter weather.

Thursday 23 Jul - Thursday 6 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather for July with a few dry spells

_________________________________

Wednesday 8 July – Sunday 12 July

Wet in the south, drier in the north. Cool

The rest of this week will see a north-south split in the weather across the UK. Low pressure tracks will drift across southern areas and keep Wales and the southern half of England grey and wet through Friday. Lows will tend to be on the weaker side though, so it should not be too windy, and rain is not expected to be particularly heavy. Thursday and into Friday the weak low crossing the country will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard. 

While the system in over England on Thursday it will be quite weak but bring plenty of rain to the Midlands and southern England. However, once it moves offshore into the North Sea on Friday it will pick up steam and bring some heavier showers and stronger winds for Friday afternoon to eastern England. At the same time southern areas are seeing a dull, wet end to the working week, northern areas will see sunny spells, light winds, and scattered afternoon showers developing over hilly areas. 

On Friday as the remnants of Edouard move away, afternoon showers will likely turn heavy and thundery for some areas in northern England and Scotland. Across the UK this week, temperatures will be cooler than normal for July with a more polar airmass overhead. As we head into the weekend high pressure will build in from the southwest and dry things out for most. This will bring in a warmer, more tropical airmass as well, so temperatures will begin to recover. North-western and northern Scotland is the main exception here as a wetter weekend is expected due to a weak front.

Monday 13 July – Sunday 19 July

Alternating dry periods and wet, breezy spells

High pressure that builds into the UK over this coming weekend will persist through much of next week, keeping things dry and fine for much of the country. Temperatures will continue to recover from the cool spell this week and likely tend to be above average for the southern half of the country. A few weak fronts will flirt with the extreme northern fringes of Scotland at times, so it will be a bit cloudier and wetter here, but the vast majority of the UK will have a mostly sunny and dry week. 

There is a risk that around midweek we could see some heat reach into the southern parts of England, especially the southeast. However, this is still only a risk at the moment and while we expect some warmer than normal weather, we do not expect a heatwave. Heading into the weekend high pressure will likely begin to break down and shift east, allowing some low pressure systems to reach into the UK from the northwest. Temperatures will begin to return to near normal, and perhaps become a bit cool for Scotland, while things turn wetter in northern and western areas. However, confidence is a bit lower than usual for the medium range as some tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are leading to some higher volatility in the computer models.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 2 August

Changeable, but turning dry and warm into August

Confidence has dropped a bit for the forecast for late July as the long range computer models are struggling to handle the increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. Overall, the pattern should see high pressure to the south and extending into Central Europe with low pressure tracks to the north of the UK and into Scandinavia. We expect some alternating wet and dry spells, but northern areas will tend to be more consistently wet and cloudy. 

With high pressure nearby to the south, ridges will move in between fronts and provide a few dry and more settled days before the next front arrives. Southern areas will likely stay mostly dry with fronts off to the north. This will also bring in a warmer southerly flow to much of the UK, so temperatures are likely to be near or above normal for the warmest air in the south. Scotland, however, will likely be near or a bit below average with fronts more frequently bringing in cooler northwest winds. 

As we head into late July and early August, we expect low pressure tracks will dip a bit further south while high pressure remains nearby to the south. This will be a windier patter most, and a wetter pattern for northern and eastern areas. Temperatures will tend to be near normal overall, but with a lot of variability day-to-day. Some records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation this year in the Atlantic, and these weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long range computer models.
The main risk to this forecast is that high pressure is more influential through late July, bringing some warmer and drier weather more consistently.

Further ahead

We will keep an eye on the tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and see if we can trust the computer models more next time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 14 Jul - Thursday 23 Jul

Through the majority of this period, it will be mostly dry and settled for many areas, especially in the south of the UK. More unsettled conditions with spells of rain and strong winds may affect the north and northwest at times. These unsettled conditions could spread to other parts of the UK later in this period, but widespread unsettled conditions are unlikely. Temperatures are likely to be mostly around normal, although it may become warm for a time in the south and perhaps very warm in the southeast. Towards the end of the period, conditions may start to trend towards more generally settled weather for most areas, but with the possibility of the occasional bout of wetter weather.

Friday 24 Jul - Friday 7 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 15 Jul - Friday 24 Jul

Through the majority of this period, it will be mostly dry and settled for many areas, especially in the south of the UK. More unsettled conditions with spells of rain and strong winds may affect the north and northwest at times. These unsettled conditions could spread to other parts of the UK later in this period, but widespread unsettled conditions are unlikely. Temperatures are likely to be mostly around normal, although it may become warm for a time in the south and perhaps very warm in the southeast. Towards the end of the period, conditions may start to trend towards more generally settled weather for most areas, but with the possibility of the occasional bout of wetter weather.

Saturday 25 Jul - Saturday 8 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through July

_________________________________

Saturday 11 July – Sunday 19 July

A drier, finer weekend, but fronts threaten later

After a series of unsettled weekends over the past month, high pressure will finally give a few drier, finer days this weekend. Much of the UK should see some decent sunny spells, with just some fair weather cloud bubbling up through the day. However, Northern Ireland and Scotland will often be cloudier this weekend, with a front moving in from the west on Sunday.
This will bring some rain, mostly light, to Northern Ireland and northwest Scotland later on Sunday, before giving patchy rain to the rest of Scotland on Sunday night. This front will then progress southeastwards through Monday, introducing cloudier skies and some outbreaks of rain across the UK as it does so, though not reaching southern England until Monday evening or overnight, by which point the front will have just some patchy light rain on it.

Tuesday will then be a cloudy day across the board, with more frontal rain moving in from the northwest into Northern Ireland and Scotland. Beyond Tuesday, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast. Most likely is that there is a marked north-south split in the weather through the rest of the week and into next weekend. High pressure will often be overhead or nearby to the south, whilst low pressure will often be to the north of Scotland. This will bring some rain and breezy conditions to Scotland and Northern Ireland at times, whilst England and Wales should stay largely dry and settled. Meanwhile, with the high pressure over the south, there is a chance of a few warmer, sunnier days later in the week.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 26 July

Wet and breezy at times, mainly in the north

Heading deeper into July, a north-south split in the weather looks possible. In the north, it is likely that fronts will edge in from the Atlantic at times, bringing intermittent spells of wet and breezy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland. With cooler northwesterly winds following on behind the fronts, temperatures in Scotland will likely trend close to, or a little below, the seasonal average.

Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to be to the south of the British Isles through this period, and this should extend northwards into the south of the UK. As a result, southern and central parts of England and Wales should see many dry, settled days, and with temperatures close to, or slightly above, average. However, there is a risk of deeper low pressure systems tracking close to the UK, to give a more widespread wet and windy week across the board. This alternative scenario is partly dependent on the developments of tropical storms in the western Atlantic, which may help to bring low pressure systems towards the UK.

Monday 27 July – Sunday 9 August

Changeable, with alternating dry and wet spells

As we head into late July and early August, we expect low pressure tracks to dip a bit further south, whilst high pressure remains to the south of us. With the threat of low pressure systems, this period may well turn out cooler, wetter and windier than average for the time of year. Temperatures will tend to be near normal overall, but with a lot of variability day-to-day.
However, confidence in the forecast is rather low.

Records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this year, and these weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long range computer models. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure becomes more influential into August, bringing some warmer and drier weather more consistently.

Further ahead

We will take the forecast further into the final month of summer, and see if there are any signs of a prolonged period of dry, warm and sunny weather. Will August see the hottest temperature of the year?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 16 Jul - Saturday 25 Jul

Through the beginning of the period, it will be mostly dry and settled for many areas, especially in the south of the UK. More unsettled conditions with spells of rain and strong winds are likely to affect the north and northwest at times. There is chance that these wetter interludes could spread more widely and affect much of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be mostly around normal, although it may become warm for a time in the south and perhaps very warm in the southeast. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions are likely to develop, across many parts. Spells of wetter and windier weather are possible across northern and western areas at times.

Saturday 25 Jul - Saturday 8 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period, the preferred scenario favours a more settled regime. There should be plenty of dry, fine weather around, though there is still the risk of occasional bouts of rain and strong winds. Such spells are mostly likely across the north and west, but they could spread to other areas at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 17 Jul - Sunday 26 Jul

Through the beginning of the period, it will be mostly dry and settled for many areas, especially in the south of the UK. More unsettled conditions with spells of rain and strong winds are likely to affect the north and northwest at times. There is chance that these wetter interludes could spread more widely and affect much of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be mostly around normal, although it may become warm for a time in the south and perhaps very warm in the southeast. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions are likely to develop, across many parts. Spells of wetter and windier weather are possible across northern and western areas at times.

Monday 27 Jul - Monday 10 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period it is likely that settled conditions will persist across many areas towards the end of July. There may also be the occasional spell of wetter and windier weather at times. These are likely to be focused across northern and western areas though may spread to other regions at times. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived and generally across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 18 Jul - Monday 27 Jul

Through the beginning of the period, it will be mostly dry and settled for many areas, especially in the south of the UK. More unsettled conditions with spells of rain and strong winds are likely to affect the north and northwest at times. There is a chance that these wetter interludes could spread more widely and affect much of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be mostly around normal, although it may become warm for a time in the south and perhaps very warm in the southeast. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions are likely to develop, across many parts. Spells of wetter and windier weather are possible across northern and western areas at times.

Tuesday 28 Jul - Tuesday 11 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period it is likely that settled conditions will persist across many areas towards the end of July. There may also be the occasional spell of wetter and windier weather at times. These are likely to be focused across northern and western areas though may occasionally spread to other regions. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived and generally across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 19 Jul - Tuesday 28 Jul

A mostly dry day in the south on Sunday with good spells of sunshine, with a mixture of scattered showers and sunny spells in the north. Most areas will be mostly dry into the middle of next week, beyond which it is likely that the settled conditions will continue for many central and southern areas, bringing dry weather and sunny spells here. Northern and northwestern parts will probably turn increasingly unsettled with spells of rain accompanied by stronger winds at times. Later in the period there is a chance that the unsettled conditions across the north may spread more widely across the rest of the UK. Temperatures near or slightly above average but perhaps warm or at times very warm in the south.

Tuesday 28 Jul - Tuesday 11 Aug

Although confidence remains low throughout this period it is likely that settled conditions will persist across many areas towards the end of July. There may also be the occasional spell of wetter and windier weather at times. These are likely to be focused across northern and western areas though may occasionally spread to other regions. Temperatures generally around average, with any periods of particularly warm weather most likely being short-lived and generally across the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through July and into August

_________________________________

Wednesday 15 July – Sunday 19 July

A north-south split with wet weather for Scotland

For the rest of the working week and into the start of the coming weekend the UK will see a bit of a north-south split in the weather. This is due to a ridge of high pressure that is building in from the southwest, bringing some drier and brighter weather to southern areas. However, a stronger-than-normal low pressure system for July will track near Iceland and bring some outbreaks of rain to northern areas. This will mainly impact Scotland and Northern Ireland.

As the ridge builds in on Wednesday and Thursday, a weak warm front will be pushed through Scotland and bring some bands of rain to northern areas and perhaps into the Midlands as well. Rain will tend to be light and patchy though. By Thursday night and into Friday, a cold front will stall over northern Scotland and just to the north of Northern Ireland, bringing some heavy rain for a time. Southern areas will stay dry and see some decent clear spells and some slightly warmer than normal air.

Into the weekend, high pressure will decline and retreat into the Atlantic, allowing the cold front to drift southeast into England and Wales. However, at this point, the front will tend to be a weak feature. Some patches of light rain are likely, but many areas will stay dry despite the front moving through on Saturday. Southeast England will likely have a mostly dry, warm day on Saturday with the front not arriving until the evening or overnight. Cooler northwest winds will follow behind for northern areas, bringing some scattered showers to the west.

Monday 20 July – Sunday 26 July

Northern areas more frequently wet, windy

As we head into late July, the north-south split for the weather will become much more of a persistent feature in the pattern. In the north, we expect fronts will edge in from the Atlantic at times, bringing intermittent but frequent spells of wet and breezy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland. With cooler northwest winds following on behind the fronts, temperatures in Scotland will likely trend a little below normal. Any dry spells between fronts will be fleeting.

Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to be to the south of the British Isles and into Central Europe during this week. As a result, southern and central parts of England and Wales should see many dry, settled days with temperatures close to, or slightly above, average. Fronts will move through occasionally, but rain is not expected to be frequent or particularly heavy. The best of the dry and bright weather will be in southeast England, where the week may be mostly dry.

The main risk to the forecast is that the high pressure to the south will tend to be stronger and more overhead throughout the week. This will mean the weather is much drier and calmer, even as far north as Scotland. This will also bring in some warmer than normal weather - but there are not any strong signals for heatwaves.

Monday 27 July – Sunday 9 August

Changeable, with alternating dry and wet spells

For late July and the first few weeks in August, we expect low pressure tracks from the North Atlantic will tend to continue to move into the UK. The main change we expect to see is a gradual reduction in the impacts from nearby high pressure. The result is that lows will move overhead more often, and even southern areas will tend to see more frequently wet and windy weather. There will still be some dry spells, especially in late-July and very early-August, and these will be longer lived in southern areas, but as a whole the country will see more unsettled weather.

However, confidence in the forecast is rather low, more so than normal for this range. Records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this year and a very active hurricane season is forecast. These weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long-range computer models, which struggle to see them coming more than a fortnight ahead. We expect that the model skill in forecasting the weather at the three and four week range is likely to be poor at the moment.

The main risk, similar to early weeks, is that high pressure becomes more influential into August, bringing some warmer and drier weather more consistently, along with a risk of heat for southern areas.

Further ahead

Next update: We will hopefully see some better signals for the weather story into early August from the models, but will another Atlantic tropical cyclone throw a spanner in the works?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 20 Jul - Wednesday 29 Jul

Patchy cloud and sunny spells on Monday with the south staying largely dry. Showers are possible elsewhere however, especially in the north and northwest where there will be a cool breeze also. Most areas will be mostly dry into the middle of next week, beyond which it is likely that the settled conditions will continue for many central and southern areas, bringing dry weather and sunny spells here. Northern and northwestern parts will probably turn increasingly unsettled with spells of rain accompanied by stronger winds at times. Later in the period there is a chance that the unsettled conditions across the north may spread more widely across the rest of the UK. Temperatures near or slightly above average but perhaps warm or at times very warm in the south.

Thursday 30 Jul - Thursday 13 Aug

Through the end of July and into August many parts of UK are likely to see periods of drier and settled weather, most especially in the south. These settled periods however will be interspersed with spells of wet weather with winds becoming stronger at times. These spells of wind and rain will largely be across the north and west of the UK but will often spread to other areas. Temperatures sticking around normal with any warmer weather being short-lived and most likely in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 21 Jul - Thursday 30 Jul

Predominantly dry on Tuesday, though some showers will still form in the north, but they will be lighter and less frequent then recently. Temperatures around average in the south, but slightly below elsewhere. Most areas will be mostly dry into the middle of next week, beyond which it is likely that the settled conditions will continue for many central and southern areas, bringing dry weather and sunny spells here. Northern and northwestern parts will probably turn increasingly unsettled with spells of rain accompanied by stronger winds at times. Later in the period there is a chance that the unsettled conditions across the north may spread more widely across the rest of the UK. Temperatures near or slightly above average but perhaps warm or at times very warm in the south.

Friday 31 Jul - Friday 14 Aug

Through the end of July and into August many parts of UK are likely to see periods of drier and settled weather, most especially in the south. These settled periods however will be interspersed with spells of wet weather with winds becoming stronger at times. These spells of wind and rain will largely be across the north and west of the UK but will often spread to other areas. Temperatures sticking around normal with any warmer weather being short-lived and most likely in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 22 Jul - Friday 31 Jul

Wednesday looks fine and dry in the south with plenty of sunny spells on offer. Showers affecting northern parts will probably ease, being replaced by thicker cloud, more persistent rain and stronger winds. Temperatures on the warm side in the south, but slightly below average further north. As we head towards the weekend it looks like there will be transition to more unsettled conditions, starting in the north and west, but extending further south and east later. This brings rain and strong winds to many parts of the UK. There will be periods of calmer and more settled weather during the following week, especially further south and east, though unseasonally wet and windy conditions will likely return frequently. Temperatures around average, with any warm spells most likely in the south.

Friday 31 Jul - Friday 14 Aug

Through the end of July and into August many parts of UK are likely to see periods of drier and settled weather, most especially in the south. These settled periods however will be interspersed with spells of wet weather with winds becoming stronger at times. These spells of wind and rain will largely be across the north and west of the UK but will often spread to other areas. Temperatures sticking around normal with any warmer weather being short-lived and most likely in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

The second part is poorly written IMO:

1) It references the end of July which is one day and covered by the first half. 

2) Wind and rain largely across the north and west but OFTEN spread to other areas. 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable weather through July and into August

_________________________________

Saturday 18 July – Sunday 26 July

Some cooler days, before turning unsettled again

This weekend, a cold front will slowly track south-eastwards across the country. On Saturday morning, the cold front will be across Wales and northern England, bringing patchy rain here.
To the south of the front, Southeast England should remain dry and sunny, but it with cloud building later in the day. To the north of the front, Northern Ireland and Scotland will have a cooler day with some sunny spells, but also with scattered showers moving in from the west. The cold front will continue to track south-eastwards into Sunday, pushing into southeast England by Sunday morning and giving rain here. With a cooler northwesterly flow behind the front, the first part of the coming week will see temperatures slightly below normal for the time of year, despite there being sunny spells for many.

There will be some scattered showers too, but mainly across north and west Scotland. For Wednesday and Thursday next week, there will likely be a north-south split in the weather. In the north - especially Scotland - there will be some rain and breezy conditions, perhaps with some heavy bursts of rain in northwest Scotland. Meanwhile, the south should stay dry through Wednesday and Thursday, and temperatures will return to around normal, under some sunny spells between areas of cloud. On Friday and into next weekend, there is a reasonable chance of an area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic, to give wet and breezy weather widely across the UK. There is good support for this unsettled scenario, but there is still a slight chance that high pressure ridges I to keep it drier, calmer, warmer in the south.

Monday 27 July – Sunday 2 August

Changeable, with low pressures tracking nearby

No major pattern changes are expected as we head through the end of July and into August, with the changeable weather continuing. Low pressures systems are expected to track close to the north of the British Isles, bringing wet and windy weather to the north at times, but all parts of the UK will likely have some wet and breezy weather during this week. Temperatures are expected to be near normal, but with some sub-weekly variability as low pressure systems come and go.

However, high pressure should remain nearby to the southwest of the British Isles, and there is a chance that this high pressure extends into the UK to give some drier, finer weather. If it does, it is unlikely to hang around for too long, so it looks like any warm and sunny weather will only last a few days at best. With the UK being on the boundary of high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the north, confidence in the forecast is fairly low around this time. One weather type may take greater dominance over the weather type, to give very different feel to the week overall. However, a changeable pattern seems most likely.

Monday 3 August – Sunday 16 August

A north-south split, with wet spells in the north

The battle between two weather types will continue through early August: low pressure systems are expected to track near to the north of the UK, whilst high pressure will often be close to the south of the UK. Scotland will likely see wet and breezy conditions at times, particularly for the northwest of the country. Meanwhile, high pressure should keep it drier and warmer further to the southeast. However, confidence in the forecast is rather low - more so than normal for this range. Records continue to be broken for early tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this year and a very active hurricane season is forecast.

These weather systems tend to have a big impact on European weather and wreak havoc on the long range computer models, which struggle to see them coming more than a fortnight ahead. The main risk, similar to preceding weeks, is that high pressure becomes more influential into mid-August, bringing some warmer and drier conditions more consistently, along with a potential for some brief hot spells of weather in the south.

Further ahead

We will hopefully see some better signals for the weather story into early August from the models, but will another Atlantic tropical cyclone throw a spanner in the works?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook