BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Continued westerly pattern, through to December

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Saturday 21 November – Sunday 29 November

A similar week to the one we are just ending!

A deep Atlantic low pressure area will pass eastwards close to northern Scotland this weekend. Its warm front crossed the UK on Friday daytime, and brought all of us some wet weather, but also a return to milder air, after the short cold snap on Thursday night. A narrow band of rain, the cold front, will move south-east during the day.
But there will be a few sunny intervals over eastern England ahead of it and sunny spells and scattered showers in its wake.

Sunday will be a less windy day in the south, with sunny spells. Scattered showers across the north, where brisk westerly winds will continue. Next week is actually looking very similar to the week just gone! Very mild south-westerly winds between Monday and Wednesday will bring rain to all parts, heaviest in the north and west, while the south-east has much less rain. A change to cooler air on Thursday, but lingering showery rain will affect southern and eastern England for a time, as it did last Thursday. A brief colder snap on Thursday night with some frost, before wet and windy weather sets back in by next Friday evening and the weekend.

Monday 30 November – Sunday 6 December

Wet and windy spells. Squally showers.

High in the atmosphere around the North Pole, a belt of strong westerly winds is predicted to become very strong during this week. Each autumn a 'Stratospheric Polar Vortex' develops, as the column of air above North Pole receives less and less daylight and then no daylight at all for a few months, so it rapidly cools. The polar vortex forms around the edge of this mass of cold polar air, but it can vary in strength and sometimes breakdown. The changes in its strength can have some influence on our weather during the winter.

When the Polar Vortex becomes stronger than average in the winter, it can help to intensify the low pressure track across the north Atlantic and facilitate its longevity. This process occurred last winter, in February 2020, when the UK was bombarded by frequent wind storms in. And it seems to be occurring again at the start of this winter. Expect to see frequent, deep Atlantic low pressure areas moving eastwards near to the UK, pushing rain bands eastwards at regular intervals. Short-lived 'shots' of cold polar air will occasionally sweep out of Greenland and over the UK, especially Scotland. This will bring cold and showery days, with some hail, sleet and upland snow in the north and west.
But milder winds from the west and south-west will be most frequent, keeping many days of this week slightly warmer than the long term average.

Monday 7 December – Sunday 20 December

Westerly pattern will continue, stormy at times.

The latest forecast guidance continues to indicate that winds from a westerly quadrant will continue throughout mid-December. The prospect of a sustained and very cold weather pattern, with severe frosts and widespread lowland snowfall, as we saw in December 2010, is very unlikely. Nevertheless, we should be wary of a couple of short-lived cold snaps, when winds swing into the north-west for a few days, before flicking back around to a milder south-westerly direction. These rapid changes in temperature and forecast hazards certainly keep the forecasters on their toes, but they can also be hazardous for travelling.

A very wet spell, followed by a couple of cold and frosty nights means that even after the roads and pavements have been treated with salt, water running off from nearby saturated fields can dilute the salt or sometimes even wash it off. This can lead to an increased risk of some ice by the end of the night. This changeable mild to cold weather pattern most recently occurred in December 2017 - a mild westerly month overall. But still with some cold snaps and a couple of locally heavy snow events that led to some disruption. The most likely weather hazards during this period will be strong winds and heavy rainfall, especially during the week of Monday 13th to Sunday 20th. The latest forecast models predict a higher probability of stormy conditions. Already there are some strong signals in the forecast guidance for gales to feature in December.

Further ahead

The lead up to Christmas is getting into forecast range! We'll be focussing our attention in getting the detail for December correct and identifying the most likely times for hazardous weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Yawns* - same old! 

Except the 'rapid changes in temperature and forecast hazards to certainly keep forecasters on their toes but they can also be hazardous for driving' - made me chuckle!! Not exactly clear is it!? Then also mention of salt and that sentence that situated fields can dilute the salt and wash it off!! ha!

I think the BBC monthly update/forecast is a waste of time anyway it has no use at this stage - esp given how the models are flip flopping.

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Thursday 26 Nov - Saturday 5 Dec

Outbreaks of rain, locally heavy will cross the UK on Wednesday, clearing the far southeast during evening. Brighter conditions with blustery heavy showers follow, most frequent in the northwest. Mostly dry and bright during Thursday with sunny spells, later cloud building in the northwest followed by rain. Towards the weekend it will remain unsettled in the northwest with the risk of strong winds but drier and brighter towards the southeast. Temperatures near normal for the time of the year. For the remainder of November and into the start of December, conditions will likely become more changeable, alternating between spells of rain with strong winds and between brighter but showery conditions. The driest and brightest weather most likely in the southeast. During this period temperatures look to be milder than average.

Saturday 5 Dec - Saturday 19 Dec

Through the first two weeks of December, it is likely to remain changeable and unsettled, resulting in a mixture of rainy, windy days and days with spells of sunshine and showers. The northwest is expected to remain unsettled with frequent spells of rain with gales to severe gales at times. Any drier and brighter weather during this period is most likely in the south and east, though still seeing rain at times. It may become predominantly settled in the south later into the second half of December, with fog patches and overnight frosts likely. Overall temperatures will likely be close to normal for the time of the year, with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over higher ground in the north, as is normal for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/1329835568994324480?s=21 

Another mild winter with any cold outbreaks very limited. Superb!

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https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/1329835568994324480?s=21

Another mild winter with any cold outbreaks very limited. Superb!

Well lets see Matty , nothing is a given is it 

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Friday 27 Nov - Sunday 6 Dec

Brighter, colder conditions with blustery heavy showers for the start of the period, most frequent in the northwest. Drier and more settled conditions during the latter part of the week with overnight frost and some morning fog patches. Still a chance of rain in the northwest and far southeast. Over the weekend, towards the turn of the month, the prevailing weather pattern becomes more uncertain. Outbreaks of rain and stronger winds are more likely in the north and west with drier conditions elsewhere. Temperatures near or a little below average. Into the start of December, conditions will likely become more changeable again, alternating between spells of rain with strong winds and brighter but showery interludes. The driest and brightest weather most likely in the southeast. Temperatures varying around average.

Sunday 6 Dec - Sunday 20 Dec

It is likely to remain changeable through the period, resulting in a mixture of rainy, windy days and brighter, showery interludes. The northwest is expected to remain more unsettled with frequent spells of rain with a risk of gales at times. The best drier and brighter conditions during this period are most likely in the south and east, although these will still see some rain at times. It may become predominantly settled in the south, but the latter part of this period will have morning fog patches and overnight frosts becoming more prevalent. Overall temperatures will likely be close to normal for the time of the year, with an increasing chance of wintry precipitation over higher ground in the north, as is normal for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 29 Nov - Tuesday 8 Dec

Into the end of November and the start of December a high pressure system looks to maintain settled conditions across the south of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely, but not restricted to, northern and western regions. Temperatures near normal with overnight frosts and some mist and fog in places. The confidence for how this high pressure system then develops into the early December is low, with solutions showing equal likelihood for settled and unsettled weather to develop. Most confidence can be placed in that the south is likely to continue to see the majority of fine and settled conditions, and the north and west seeing the worst of any unsettled conditions.

Tuesday 8 Dec - Tuesday 22 Dec

The confidence for the outlook into December is low, but the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Overall the best of the driest and brightest weather in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in cooler and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Monday 30 Nov - Wednesday 9 Dec

Into the end of November and the start of December a high pressure system looks to maintain settled conditions across the south of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely, but not restricted to, northern and western regions. Temperatures near normal with overnight frosts and some mist and fog in places. The confidence for how this high pressure system then develops into the early December is low, with solutions showing equal likelihood for settled and unsettled weather to develop. Most confidence can be placed in that the south is likely to continue to see the majority of fine and settled conditions, and the north and west seeing the worst of any unsettled conditions.

Wednesday 9 Dec - Wednesday 23 Dec

The confidence for the outlook into December is low, but the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Overall the best of the driest and brightest weather in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in cooler and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable with occasional colder interludes

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Wednesday 25 November – Sunday 29 November

Turning drier and calmer. Patchy fog and frost.

The first half of this week has seen mild air across the UK, with winds from the south-west. While the northern and western half of the UK has seen the majority of the heavy rainfall, a weakening cold front will move slowly eastwards across the UK during Wednesday 25th. This promises a dull, damp and grey day in the southern and eastern half of the UK. The north and west will brighten up and it will feel less mild than of late, especially by evening when temperatures will dip sharply.

The rest of the week will see a large area of high pressure shifting east across the county, influencing the UK's weather. Winds will much lighter than during the past couple of weeks, especially over northern and western areas, where strong south-westerly winds have been very sustained. Overnight frost and locally dense patches of fog will become the primary hazards through the rest of the week, with Thursday night into Friday especially prone to both of these hazards. A little more breeze from the south-east on Friday and Saturday will reduce the threat of overnight frost and fog, but Sunday night is looking frosty again, particularly in the south. A lot of dry weather to come from Thursday onwards, but occasional rain in the far north-west this weekend.

Monday 30 November – Sunday 6 December

A settled but chilly start. More unsettled later.

A rather complex and changeable week of weather. The computer forecast models have been struggling for consistency on the details, especially the timing of a significant mid-week pattern change. It is recommended to stay up to date with the very latest forecast information each day, as the exact timings of this forecast could change. Despite this uncertainty, the overall trend to see a shift from a mostly dry, calm, chilly pattern early in the week to a more unsettled regime later in the week seems likely.

High pressure ridging will still be extensive over England and Wales on Monday and Tuesday, even as some weak fronts edge southwards into the far north of Scotland. Chilly evenings, nights and mornings with some frost and patchy fog are expected, with locally sharp frosts over sheltered inland areas. There will be a lot of dry weather and a few bright or sunny spells will break through from time to time. The most likely outcome for the second half of the week is for Atlantic low pressure areas to encroach from the north-west. A milder, windier and wetter couple of days around Thursday and Friday is most plausible, although don't be surprised if the high pressure and chilly, dry weather hangs on for a day or two longer. By the end of the week, there is a reasonable chance of colder air returning from the north, with some night frosts and scattered wintry showers.

Monday 7 December – Sunday 20 December

Changeable conditions. A few cold snaps.

Compared with our previous updates last week, the main change to the mid-December outlook is that areas of low pressure are more likely to track southwards across the UK and down into France, Spain and Italy. This will offer the UK a break from a relentless conveyor belt of Atlantic low pressure areas and allow temporary high pressure ridges to build across the country.

The reason for the forecast change appears to be a huge low pressure circulation across the far north Pacific ocean, which looks like it will go nowhere for a few weeks. This will help to set up a wavy jet stream, with large north to south loops, across the north Atlantic and Europe, encouraging low pressure areas to track southwards over western Europe at times.

All of this suggests that a changeable weather pattern is on the way for mid-December, with mild, wet and windy spells alternating with a few colder and less wet interludes. A couple of very wet and windy days are still on the cards, as deep low pressure areas roll across, but the prospect of a succession of deep winter storms and frequent days of widespread heavy rain is less likely. Wintry showers and perhaps even some lowland snowfall are now more likely in the north. High pressure will occasionally offer some drier, calmer and sunnier days, with night widespread night frosts and some more fog patches.

Further ahead

December promises some rather changeable and challenging weather conditions to predict! Keeping up with the latest trends in the guidance and identifying the times when cold or stormy spells are more likely will be our main priority as we look towards Christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Tuesday 1 Dec - Thursday 10 Dec

Into the start of December a high pressure system looks to maintain settled conditions across the south of the UK, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely, but not restricted to, northern and western regions. Temperatures look to be near normal with overnight frosts and some mist and fog in places under any clear skies. The confidence for how this high pressure system then develops later in this period is low, with solutions showing equal likelihood for settled and unsettled weather to develop. Most confidence can be placed in that the south is likely to continue to see the majority of fine and settled conditions, and the north and west seeing the worst of any unsettled conditions.

Thursday 10 Dec - Thursday 24 Dec

The confidence for the outlook into December is low, but the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Overall the best of the driest and brightest weather in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in cooler and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/1329835568994324480?s=21

Another mild winter with any cold outbreaks very limited. Superb!

Be interesting to see if IF changes his December forecast , the Beeb have adjusted theirs , shows nothing is a given 

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Thursday 10 Dec - Thursday 24 Dec

The confidence for the outlook into December is low, but the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Overall the best of the driest and brightest weather in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in cooler and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

In other words, pretty much anything could happen ....

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Wednesday 2 Dec - Friday 11 Dec

High pressure and generally settled weather will likely give way to wetter, and at times windier, conditions through the first week of December. Outbreaks of rain are likely in most areas, notably northern areas at first, and perhaps more southern areas into the weekend. Gales may also develop, these most likely for exposed western areas. Later in the period it may well turn more settled, though colder, with a return of night frost and fog. Some showers are likely too, these perhaps wintry at times in the north. Temperatures may start off near normal, though often feeling colder in windier and wetter spells. Below normal temperatures are then slightly more likely for later in the period.

Friday 11 Dec - Friday 25 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Cloudy and blustery conditions are still likely in the east at first. Overall, the best of the driest and brightest weather is in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in colder and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest are likely to turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable conditions. Colder interludes

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Saturday 28 November – Sunday 6 December

Calm and mainly dry at first, then more unsettled.

High pressure will be extensive over the UK this weekend, bringing gentle winds. A weak warm front progressing north across south-west England, the Midlands and Wales on Saturday 28th November will bring extensive cloud cover, mist, hill fog and some light rain and drizzle. Any lingering light rain on Saturday morning over northern and western Scotland will clear. Best of any sunshine will be over northern Scotland and the far south-east of England in the early afternoon. Most places dry on Sunday 29th, but sunny intervals will be limited, and it will be quite misty and murky.

Not as frosty in southern areas this weekend, as earlier this week. Early next week, a cold front will move south-eastwards, bringing a short spell of wet and breezy weather.
A cold end to Monday night with a local frost in northern parts by dawn. Central and southern areas will have a cold evening and night on Tuesday night, with frost and patchy fog. A more unsettled second half of next week, as low pressure deepens to the north-west of the UK and then tracks right overhead. At this stage, there is some uncertainty on the strength of the winds over southern areas on Wednesday night and Thursday. But there is good agreement that rain and then scattered showers will affect all parts.
Cold enough for some snow over the hills and mountains in the north and west by Friday. A rather cold and showery end to the week.

Monday 7 December – Sunday 13 December

Wettest and windiest in the south. Rather cold.

High pressure will often be positioned to the west of the UK, out over the north Atlantic, during this week. And there is also a strong signal for areas of low pressure to become slow moving over Spain, southern France, Italy and the Alps. This will bring plenty of cloud, wind, rainfall and mountain snow here. For the UK, it seems that at least a couple of low pressure areas will push south-eastwards during the week. But with some calmer, drier, brighter weather in between them. Back in November, we experienced long periods of very mild weather.

This was due to high pressure over the near continent and a sustained south-westerly flow of balmy air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. There was little in the way of cold air from the north. Mid-December promises to be different, as we should see the winds coming in from the north and north-west more regularly. Frosts will be more frequent and we are likely to see some wintry showers, perhaps even some heavy snow showers over the higher ground in the north. Low pressure areas tracking to the south of the UK mean that western Scotland and Cumbria tend to see less rainfall than average, with the wettest weather over southern England instead. The frequency of strong wind events and westerly gales will be lower than a typical December in Scotland. But southern areas will have the best chance of seeing a few very windy days.

Monday 14 December – Sunday 27 December

Variable temperatures. Wet weather shifting north.

The middle of December will continue to see a strong ridge of high pressure over the north Atlantic. This will steer areas of low pressure south-east across the UK, France and then down into southern Europe. Spells of rain and brisk winds, especially over southern parts of the UK. It should be cold enough for some of the rain to fall as sleet and snow, especially over higher elevations, but not exclusively so. Some heavy wet snow falling to low levels cannot be completely excluded - we've seen it before in recent Decembers with a similar weather pattern, such as 2011 and especially 2017.

Once the low pressure areas track away to the south of the UK, there will tend to be two or three days with gentle winds, sunnier skies but also some cold air, with overnight frost. Patchy freezing fog is also possible when high pressure builds over the UK more intensely and we get some calm, clear nights. The Christmas week is now in the forecast range for the first time! It's too early to make a prediction of what the weather will be like over the UK on Christmas Day itself, but we can look at what the latest forecast guidance is suggesting for the week as whole. A consensus of the latest predictions suggest that high pressure will start to build over France, Germany and southern England.
Meanwhile, low pressure track starts to shift further north than earlier in December. This would suggest a trend to less cold weather, as winds over the UK come in from the south-west more often. North-western have the greatest chance of wet and windy weather, while the southern and eastern half of the UK will become drier and more settled, but with some mist and fog.

Further ahead

Now we have the festive holiday period within the month-ahead range, our subsequent updates will attempt to fine tune the details for the second half of December. We'll be keeping a close eye on the charts for any possibility of a white Christmas!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Thursday 3 Dec - Saturday 12 Dec

High pressure and generally settled weather will likely give way to wetter, and at times windier, conditions through the first week of December. Outbreaks of rain are likely in most areas, notably northern areas at first, and perhaps more southern areas into the weekend. Gales may also develop, these most likely for exposed western areas. Later in the period it may well turn more settled, though colder, with a return of night frost and fog. Some showers are likely too, these perhaps wintry at times in the north. Temperatures may start off near normal, though often feeling colder in windier and wetter spells. Below normal temperatures are then slightly more likely for later in the period.

Saturday 12 Dec - Saturday 26 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Cloudy and blustery conditions are still likely in the east at first. Overall, the best of the driest and brightest weather is in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in colder and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest are likely to turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

I've said it before, this BBC forecast is well written and the synopsis well explained to the layman.
It eclipses the vague and poorly written Met Office attempt which, quite frankly is an embarrassment.

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Definitely a decent seasonal mid range forecast today from. the metoffice 🙂

Friday 4 Dec - Sunday 13 Dec

The period will start unsettled across all parts of the UK, with areas of heavy rain and showers, locally of soft hail, sleet and snow likely, and possibly more widespread snow over some hills and mountains. Often windy, especially around coasts, but in quieter interludes overnight there will remain the potential for some patchy frost, and isolated mist and freezing fog. Temperatures are expected to be a below average overall. Later in this period, it could turn drier and more settled with a chance of high pressure moving in from the north, bringing brisk easterly winds. Again, where winds fall lighter, overnight frost and patchy fog is likely, this perhaps most likely in the north. Near, to slightly below, average temperatures are most likely.

Sunday 13 Dec - Sunday 27 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes seems slightly more likely, with winds and weather systems more likely to arrive from the Atlantic. Although confidence is low, in this pattern the best of the driest and brightest weather will be in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is most likely over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest could turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales at times, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 5 Dec - Monday 14 Dec

The period will start unsettled across all parts of the UK, with areas of heavy rain and showers, locally of soft hail, sleet and snow likely, and possibly more widespread snow over some hills and mountains. Often windy, especially around coasts, but in quieter interludes overnight there will remain the potential for some patchy frost, and isolated mist and freezing fog. Temperatures are expected to be a below average overall. Later in this period, it could turn drier and more settled with a chance of high pressure moving in from the north, bringing brisk easterly winds. Again, where winds fall lighter, overnight frost and patchy fog is likely, this perhaps most likely in the north. Near, to slightly below, average temperatures are most likely.

Monday 14 Dec - Monday 28 Dec

Despite some mixed signals, typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes seems slightly more likely, with winds and weather systems more likely to arrive from the Atlantic. Although confidence is low, in this pattern the best of the driest and brightest weather will be in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is most likely over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest could turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales at times, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest. Temperatures overall likely to be near or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

 CPF has been issued in a revised format. Goodness me. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djf-v2.pdf

 

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 CPF has been issued in a revised format. Goodness me. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djf-v2.pdf

 

 

Big sad face

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