Sunday 1 Nov - Tuesday 10 Nov

The first few days of November will likely see unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain, followed by a more showery regime with strong winds and possibly gales at times. The north of the UK is more likely to see any longer spells of rain and showers which develop, as well as strong winds and possibly gales. By the end of the first week of November, there will be a transition from predominantly low pressure to high pressure, with winds becoming light. Initially in the period, temperatures will likely recover to near-normal. With the transition to high pressure, the UK will see drier and settled weather. Temperatures may start to feel rather cold, with overnight fog and frost becoming more common, particularly in the south.

Wednesday 11 Nov - Wednesday 25 Nov

Settled weather is likely to continue until the middle of November, with high pressure looking to dominate. This will bring dry and settled conditions, especially for the south of the UK whereas any wet windy weather will be mostly confined to the north. Confidence lowers for the second half of November but current signals suggest an autumnal setup with colder conditions developing and more frequent showers, with the heaviest of these showers affecting the east of the UK. Another spell of drier, more settled conditions is possible towards the end of November, but confidence remains low for this. Despite the settled conditions in the south temperatures are expected to be lower than average for the time of year, whereas they will be closer to normal in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A wet & windy late October. Cold snaps in November

_________________________________

Wednesday 28 October – Sunday 1 November

Very wet in the west. Windy, but turning milder

A barrage of Atlantic fronts and low pressure systems will continue to dictate our weather this week. As we predicted in the previous forecast update, Ex-Hurricane Epsilon has now formed a deep low pressure area over the north Atlantic. This produced a spell of wet and windy weather over all of the UK on Tuesday 27th, with extensive cloud cover throughout the day over central and eastern parts. On Wednesday, sustained fresh to strong westerly winds over the UK will push showers across, but there will be sunny spells between them. The heaviest and most frequent showers will be over southern and western coastal counties of England and the hills and mountains of Wales. Risk of hail and thunder in the heaviest ones.

A new set of Atlantic fronts will push north-east on Thursday and Friday, bringing copious rain to parts of the north and west, but allowing very mild air to extend across England and Wales from the south-west. Temperatures peaking at 18C (perhaps 19C) on Friday and Saturday in eastern and south-eastern England. The weekend will see further rain bands and brisk winds sweeping the country. There will be drier and brighter episodes between the rain bands, so it won't always be dull and wet.

Monday 2 November – Sunday 8 November

Drier and calmer conditions extending northwards

Monday 2nd November will start as the previous week left off, with low pressure and active fronts bringing windy and wet conditions to most of the UK. The remnants of Ex-Hurricane Zeta may be contained within Monday's low pressure area. Mild in the south and east of England. This low pressure will clear by Tuesday, leaving a colder wind from the north-west and a few showers racing across the country. Winds ease by mid-week as a big high pressure ridge moves in from the west. The threat of a frost on Tuesday and Wednesday night, so gardeners please take note!

The forecast trend for the second half of the week is that ridges of high pressure will quickly become influential across most of the UK. A much drier and calmer weather pattern is expected. Cool nights, but the days should still be rather mild, especially in the sunshine. Over Scotland, especially the northern and western half, a strong westerly jet stream over the North Atlantic will still be close enough to trigger some wet and windy weather. However, these conditions will be less intense than the previous couple of weeks and the chance of another ex-Hurricane moving close to Scotland is lower. Indeed, the southern half of Scotland will probably join England and Wales with some drier and more settled weather, and lighter winds at times.

Monday 9 November – Sunday 22 November

Cold northerly plunges more likely after mid-month

This autumn, we have a La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean, which means much cooler than average sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern Tropical Pacific. Despite the Pacific Ocean being thousands of miles away from the UK, unusual conditions here can have a broad influence on global weather patterns, including over Europe. A La Nina event tends to increase the chance of the UK getting some decent cold snaps before Christmas, as we saw in both 2016 and 2017, when we last had a La Nina pattern. However, other factors can also influence the UK's weather in late autumn, too. This can include wind patterns high above the North Pole and the sea surface temperatures over the north Atlantic.

The most likely outcome before mid-November is for high pressure to remain close to, or overhead the UK. This will mean further dry and calm conditions on many days, with some overnight frost at times where winds are light and skies clear. It won't be especially cold during the day though, as winds will still be coming from the relatively mild source of the north Atlantic. If low pressure areas do move in, they will be weaker than back in late October and the wind and rain will be less intense. A change is likely after mid-November, when colder air from the Arctic and showery weather should extend southwards more often. Some heavy showers at times, falling as sleet, hail and even snow, especially over the mountains in the north. Colder by day and sharper frosts by night, on some nights.

Further ahead

Next Update: We will be assessing the latest forecast models for second half of November, to see if the chance of cold weather and an early taste of winter has increased or decreased.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 2 Nov - Wednesday 11 Nov

Conditions are expected to remain unsettled into the beginning of November, with outbreaks of rain at first, followed by a more showery regime. Strong winds are also likely to continue for the first few days of November, with gales possible at times. However, it will likely feel milder, particularly in the south. A change to more settled conditions is then expected midway through this period with any showers or longer spells of rain most likely affecting northern areas. Elsewhere, the south of the UK has an increased likelihood of seeing the best of this dry and settled weather. Winds possibly becoming light across the south with the strongest winds confined to the north. These more settled conditions bring an increased risk of colder weather with overnight frost and morning fog.

Thursday 12 Nov - Thursday 26 Nov

Settled weather is likely to continue until the middle of November, with high pressure looking to dominate. This will bring dry and settled conditions, especially for the south of the UK whereas any wet windy weather will be mostly confined to the north. Confidence lowers for the second half of November but current signals suggest an autumnal setup with colder conditions developing and more frequent showers, with the heaviest of these showers affecting the east of the UK. Another spell of drier, more settled conditions is possible towards the end of November, but confidence remains low for this. Despite the settled conditions in the south temperatures are expected to be lower than average for the time of year, whereas they will be closer to normal in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 3 Nov - Thursday 12 Nov

Following the very unsettled period we are now in, conditions across the UK are expected to become less unsettled early next week. By next Tuesday, most places will have a mixture of sunny spells and showers, the heaviest and most frequent of these showers likely in the west. By the middle of next week, generally much drier, brighter more settled conditions are likely to be established across much of the UK. As winds fall light for many, overnight frost and morning fog will become more prevalent and it will be colder generally. More changeable windier conditions may persist in the far north. Generally quiet conditions will probably persist through the following weekend although it may start to become somewhat more changeable again as we go into mid November.

Friday 13 Nov - Friday 27 Nov

Settled weather is likely to continue until the middle of November, with high pressure looking to dominate. This will bring generally dry conditions, especially for the south with any wet and windy weather being mostly confined to the north. Confidence is currently low for the second half of November but current signals suggest an autumnal setup with colder conditions developing and more frequent showers, with the heaviest of these showers affecting the east and northeast of the UK. Another spell of drier, more settled conditions is possible towards the end of November, but confidence remains low for this. Despite the settled conditions in the south temperatures are expected to be lower than average for the time of year, whereas they will be closer to normal in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 4 Nov - Friday 13 Nov

Following the very unsettled period we are now in, conditions across the UK are expected to become less unsettled and generally much drier, brighter, more settled conditions are likely to be established. Wednesday will probably see plenty of sunshine with some showers, the heaviest of these in the south and southeast. Temperatures will generally be slightly below normal through to the end of the week. Throughout the rest of the period many areas will be dry and settled and as winds fall light for many, overnight frost and morning fog will become more prevalent, especially in the south. Any more changeable, windier conditions are likely to occur in the far north. These generally settled conditions will probably persist through the end of the period with temperatures returning to near normal.

Saturday 14 Nov - Saturday 28 Nov

Settled weather is likely to continue until late November, with high pressure looking to dominate especially in the south of the UK. This will bring generally dry conditions, especially for the south, with any spells of wet and windy weather mostly confined to the north. Towards the latter part of November the current signals suggest an autumnal setup, with unsettled conditions developing more widely. However, a return to settled, dry conditions is likely by early December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A wet & windy late October. Cold snaps in November

_________________________________

Saturday 31 October – Sunday 8 November

A transition from wet & windy to drier & calmer.

A barrage of active Atlantic fronts and deep low pressure systems will continue to dictate our weather through this weekend and into Monday. The remnants of ex-Hurricane Zeta and the associated extra warmth and moisture from the tropical Atlantic will help to fuel the intensity of some of the low pressure systems, leading to copious heavy rainfall in the west and frequent strong winds.

Saturday will be a windy day for us all, with the prospect of gales over western areas, with gusts over 60mph in exposed areas, locally around 70mph along the west Wales coast and some of the hills and headlands of western Britain and Ireland. A broad band of heavy rain will sweep eastwards over all parts, but sunnier skies will come into south-western parts of the UK in the afternoon, leading to a drier interlude.

More wet and very windy weather on Sunday and Monday too, with the heaviest rainfall focused again over western parts, and strong winds from the south-west. Sunday night into Monday will see widespread wind gusts over 45mph, even inland over southern England.

A change to a colder and more showery weather pattern on Tuesday, with brisk winds from the north-west. But then a dramatic change to calmer, drier and sunnier weather from Wednesday and Thursday onwards, as high pressure builds. Cold nights with some local frost and dense fog patches, but milder and still quite sunny weather towards next weekend, as southerly winds freshen.

Monday 9 November – Monday 16 November

High pressure overhead. A quieter side to Autumn.

Extensive ridges of high pressure are expected to remain influential across most of the UK, with a continuation of a drier and calmer than average weather pattern for November, especially in the south.

The days are short and the nights are long in November, with the sun increasingly low in the sky, especially in the early to mid-mornings and again by mid-afternoon.

With a lack of mild air flowing across the UK from the Atlantic, it can get pretty chilly under the high pressure ridges, especially at night. Frost is likely where skies are clear for a few hours overnight. Patchy fog is likely to form too, some rather dense. The weather will be pleasant at times, with some late autumn sunshine breaking through. Other days, blankets of cloud will spread in from the North Sea and sit across the UK all day, leading to overcast and rather dull and dank conditions.

Over northern Scotland, a stronger westerly wind flow could still be close enough to bring in some fronts and windier and wetter weather.
However, these conditions will tend to fade with time, as high pressure extends further north and west during the second half of the week.

Tuesday 17 November – Sunday 29 November

A greater chance of some cold air from the north.

In some of our recent updates, we have been mentioning the prospect of some cold northerly plunges occurring as we head deeper into autumn. With a La Nina event ongoing in the Pacific (a vast area of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean), then the UK can often see an increase in the frequency of northerly winds in late autumn and early winter.

But the latest forecast computer models are very opposed with regards to how the second half of the month will play out and this reduces the confidence in the forecast. In this situation we have to look for trends in the individual models over their last few updates. We also have to bear mind how skilful they tend to be at predicting certain weather patterns correctly, based on their past performance.

Our preference remains for there to be more extensive high pressure than we have seen for a few weeks over the north Atlantic and up across Iceland and Greenland. This help to steer Atlantic low pressure systems southwards over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, while pulling down colder air from the Arctic towards the UK. This increases the likelihood for some frosty nights, cold day and the potential for wintry showers.

However, we also don't think that there will be a solid 2 weeks of cold weather either. We saw this during the second half of November 2010, which led into the remarkably cold and snowy December of that year.

This November, we think the cold weather will come down from the north in several pulses. Brief interludes of milder and quite unsettled weather are expected between them, but sustained periods of unusually mild weather seem unlikely.

Further ahead

The second half of November is still very uncertain, with some conflicting signals in today's guidance. The update next week will assess whether there are more definitive indications of how the late November patterns will evolve.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 5 Nov - Saturday 14 Nov

Conditions across the UK are likely to become more settled and drier through the first half of November. Thursday will see bright and fine conditions across many southern areas although it will be cloudy and breezy in northern areas with outbreaks of patchy light rain and drizzle. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below average through to the end of the week. Temperatures will then recover to near normal, with the risk of overnight frost and morning fog becoming more prevalent, especially in the south. For the rest of the period many areas are likely to be dry and settled with lighter winds especially across the south. The far north will see more changeable conditions with showers or longer spells of rain at times.

Sunday 15 Nov - Sunday 29 Nov

Settled weather is likely to continue until late November, with high pressure looking to dominate especially in the south of the UK. This will bring generally dry conditions, particularly for the south, with any spells of wet and windy weather mostly confined to the north. Towards the latter part of November the current models suggest an autumnal feel, with unsettled conditions developing more widely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 6 Nov - Sunday 15 Nov

Conditions across the UK are likely to become much more settled and drier this week, but colder. Friday will be dry and bright for most although there is a risk of rain and drizzle in the far north. Except for the far north, night frost is likely along with some overnight fog, lasting into in the morning. Next weekend, bands of rain will probably start edging up from the south accompanied by milder but murky conditions at times. Through the following week into mid November, further areas of rain and sometimes windier conditions may move north across the UK but also with reasonable dry spells, these most likely in the east where the best of any bright conditions are likely. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year.

Monday 16 Nov - Monday 30 Nov

Mainly settled weather appears likely through the second half of November, with high pressure looking to dominate especially in the south of the UK. This will bring generally dry conditions, particularly for the south, with any spells of wet and windy weather mostly confined to the north. Towards the latter part of November more generally unsettled conditions could develop more widely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 7 Nov - Monday 16 Nov

Conditions across the UK are likely to become much more settled and drier this week, but colder. Friday will be dry and bright for most although there is a risk of rain and drizzle in the far north. Except for the far north, night frost is likely along with some overnight fog, lasting into in the morning. Next weekend, bands of rain will probably start edging up from the south accompanied by milder but murky conditions at times. Through the following week into mid November, further areas of rain and sometimes windier conditions may move north across the UK but also with reasonable dry spells, these most likely in the east where the best of any bright conditions are likely. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year.

Tuesday 17 Nov - Tuesday 1 Dec

Mainly settled weather appears likely through the second half of November, with high pressure looking to dominate especially in the south of the UK. This will bring generally dry conditions, particularly for the south, with any spells of wet and windy weather mostly confined to the north. Towards the latter part of November more generally unsettled conditions could develop more widely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 8 Nov - Tuesday 17 Nov

Dry and settled weather continues into the weekend for most, although some rain is likely to push into southern parts by Sunday. There will be a good deal of cloud, but also some brighter interludes, across the whole of the UK, but mainly across the east. Next week will be a mixture of showery rain and dry interludes, with the rain centred over western regions, and it will become very mild. By mid-November occasional short lived unsettled spells remain possible, however the emphasis remains on a good deal of dry weather. Continuing rather mild with little in the way of overnight frost, with temperatures likely to at or above average for this time of year.

Wednesday 18 Nov - Wednesday 2 Dec

Mainly settled weather likely to occur through the second half of November, as a high pressure system looks to dominate. This looks to bring dry weather and mild temperatures. However, some occasional short-lived unsettled spells still remain a possibility. Towards the end of the month and into early December temperatures likely to turn colder, increasing the likelihood of any night frost and wintry precipitation, especially at any northern high ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning warmer through mid-November. Risk of cold

_________________________________

Wednesday 4 November – Sunday 8 November

Change from chilly to milder. Eventually wetter

A weak trough could bring a few showers across during Wednesday on a chilly north-westerly breeze. Less cold across Scotland where slightly milder air will accompany some frontal rain. High pressure starting to edge in from the west will then intensify and drift east across the UK through Thursday and Friday. This will mean some rather cold nights and mornings, and with rather calm conditions. There will likely be local frost and patches of thick fog. Aside from any lingering fog there will be generally sunnier conditions.

As high pressure drifts farther east it will bring some southeast flows. So it will still be cool Friday and Saturday, especially in the east where there could be some low cloud and mist. However, much milder air will then come in from the south, starting Saturday, as winds move more southerly. Sunday will become warm for the time of year, but with some bands of rain moving northwards across England and Wales along with a freshening of the wind. There will not be a repeat of the recent thoroughly wet and windy weather. Scotland will most likely be largely dry through the weekend although will take a longer to warm up.

Monday 9 November – Sunday 15 November

High pressure to the east. Becoming warmer & drier

The first half of next week will see a similar pattern, with warm with southerly flows pushing temperatures a few degrees above the early-November average. But further bands of rain moving across the country on frontal systems from the south and southwest. High pressure will persist to the east, and this looks likely to strengthen and build back westwards towards the UK. This will push those rain-bearing systems farther out into the Atlantic and delivering mostly dry conditions across the country by the end of the week.

Although, there will remain a chance of a little rain at times in northern and western regions. There is about a 20 per cent risk that the high will be less strong and positioned farther northeast across Scandinavia. This will allow Atlantic low pressure systems to creep closer to the UK and bring a greater chance of rain and stronger winds across northern and western regions. Under these circumstances it would also be a bit cooler but not significantly so, with temperatures still above normal for November.

Monday 16 November – Sunday 29 November

Warmth lingering then a chance of colder air later

Longer range models differ somewhat for the second half of November, but the most likely scenario is for warmer and drier than average conditions to continue across most of the UK. Occasional rain cannot be ruled, especially for the north and west. A change looks like coming later in the month as the high pressure system weakens and re-establishes westwards as a ridge over the Atlantic by the end of the month, inducing chilly flows from the north.

With a La Niña event developing in the Pacific, the UK can be more susceptible to northerly winds in late autumn and early winter. This might be aided by a weaker Polar Vortex, but it does not look like weakening sufficiently for any major cold outbreaks to be a concern. Confidence in the forecast is low given model contradictions but these climate drivers can help to steer us towards these possible colder outbreaks late month. Although they would be not be expected to be long-lasting.

With high pressure over the North Atlantic, low pressure systems should be steered southwards over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, pulling down pulses of colder towards the UK. This increases the likelihood for some frosty nights, cold days and the potential for wintry showers but brief milder, wet and windy spells in between. There are a couple of possible alternate scenarios. One is that the Polar Vortex remains strong and induces more of a westerly regime with low pressure systems bringing occasionally wet and windy but mild weather across the UK. This is about a 30 per cent chance. On the other hand, there is a very small risk, no more than 10 per cent, of high pressure building over Scandinavia and bringing much colder easterly winds.

Further ahead

With the second half of November still under a cloud of uncertainty, it will be interesting to see if the model disagreements resolve and allow for more confidence in late-month colder outbreaks, or if the opposite starts to look more possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 9 Nov - Wednesday 18 Nov

Dry and settled weather continues into the weekend for most, although some rain is likely to push into southern parts by Sunday. There will be a good deal of cloud yet also some brighter interludes across the whole of the UK, but mainly across the east. Next week will be a mixture of showery rain and dry interludes, with the rain mostly centred over western regions. Temperatures becoming very mild. By mid-November the occasional short lived unsettled spells remain possible, however, the emphasis remains on a good deal of dry and mild weather. With little in the way of overnight frost, temperatures are likely to be at or above average for this time of year.

Thursday 19 Nov - Thursday 3 Dec

Mainly settled weather likely to occur through the second half of November, as a high pressure system looks to dominate. This looks to bring dry weather and mild temperatures. However, some occasional short-lived unsettled spells still remain a possibility. Towards the end of the month and into early December temperatures likely to turn colder, increasing the likelihood of any night frost and wintry precipitation, especially at any northern high ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 10 Nov - Thursday 19 Nov

Dry and settled weather continues into the weekend for most, although some rain is likely to push into southern parts by Sunday. There will be a good deal of cloud yet also some brighter interludes across the whole of the UK, but mainly across the east. Many areas are likely to continue to see fog overnight. Next week will be a mixture of showery rain and dry interludes, with the rain mostly centred over western regions. By mid-November the occasional short-lived unsettled spells remain possible, however, the emphasis remains on a good deal of dry and mild weather. With little in the way of overnight frost, temperatures are likely to be at or above average for this time of year.

Friday 20 Nov - Friday 4 Dec

Mainly settled weather likely to occur through the second half of November, as a high pressure system looks to dominate. This looks to bring dry weather and mild temperatures. However, some occasional short-lived unsettled spells still remain a possibility. Confidence is low but towards the end of the month and into early December, temperatures could turn colder, increasing the likelihood of night frost and wintry precipitation, especially across northern high ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 11 Nov - Friday 20 Nov

A dry and bright start to the period for many, although some rain is expected to push into western parts by Wednesday. The mild and settled conditions are likely to remain for the rest of the week, but often cloudier, with a continued risk of mist and fog, particularly across eastern parts. Any rain and strong winds are likely to be confined to the western areas. Later in the period, high pressure looks to dominate leaving dry and more settled conditions, however occasional unsettled weather cannot be ruled out completely. Temperatures are likely to be at or above average for this time of year, particularly in any brighter spells where it will feel particularly mild.

Saturday 21 Nov - Saturday 5 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting further west and north of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining mild before possibly turning colder than average into December with risks of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild & drier for a time. A stormy late November.

_________________________________

Saturday 7 November – Sunday 15 November

Turning very mild. Dry in south and east.

After another chilly night, with some localised frost and patchy dense fog to start the day, Saturday 7th November will be dry for many parts of the UK, with high pressure leading to further sunshine. Cloud becoming more extensive across Wales as well as the southern and western half of England as the day progresses. There will be showery bursts of rain edging northwards into Devon, Cornwall and south Wales. Very mild in southern England and west Wales, with temperatures reaching 15C or 16C here.

During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, further bands of cloud and showery rain will spread northwards and a bit further eastwards across the UK. Some locally heavy pulses at times and the low risk of a crack of thunder. This is most likely over south-west England. Lowest rainfall amounts and best chance of sunny spells will be over eastern and north-eastern areas of the UK. Very mild by day and night, with maximum temperatures reaching 17C, perhaps 18C.

During the middle and end of this week, a similar weather pattern will dominate, with a huge area of high pressure over continental Europe. This will prevent Atlantic fronts from pushing eastwards across the UK. Instead, they will stall over western areas, with western and south-western Scotland predicted to see the highest totals. Brisk winds on a few days, more especially over Scotland. Much drier and less windy over central and eastern England. Mild, with winds from the south and south-west.

Monday 16 November – Sunday 22 November

Mild conditions continuing. Wettest in north-west.

The most likely outcome during this week is for a huge area of high pressure to remain situated across much of continental Europe. The UK will once again be located on the milder western side of this high pressure ridge. Atlantic fronts running into western and northern fringes of the UK before stalling. Milder than average conditions will continue, with the risk of frost quite low, even in Scotland. A distinct north-west to south-east split in rainfall totals and wind speeds.

We will see the south and east again experiencing less rainfall and wind than would typically occur in mid-November. The reverse is likely to be the case over western Scotland. However, during the first half of the week, there is a slight chance that high pressure extends its influence further west, leading to a calmer & drier period of weather, even over west Wales and western Scotland. Winds would turn south-easterly over southern and eastern parts of England, drawing in drier air from the near continent. While this drier air would lead to more sunshine and less cloud cover by day, overnight temperatures would fall sharply, with some frost expected.

Towards the end of this week, there is more of a risk that high pressure declines quite quickly over the near continent and low pressure areas start to intensify over the north Atlantic and near Scotland. Westerly winds strengthening widely over the UK, with periods of heavy rain making their presence felt across all parts. Such a scenario is more likely during the final week in November, than during the latter half of this week.

Monday 23 November – Sunday 6 December

Widely wetter and windier. Short cold plunges.

In some of our recent updates, we have been mentioning the prospect of some cold northerly plunges occurring as we get to late November. With a La Nina event ongoing in the Pacific (a vast area of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean), then the UK can sometimes see an increase in the frequency of cold northerly winds during November.

However, unusual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature patterns are not the only influence on the UK's weather in late autumn. In some previous years, an entrenched La Nina pattern fails to coincide with any sustained pre-Christmas cold weather over the UK. 2020 could be another of these years. This two week period should see a return to brisk westerly winds and fast moving frontal systems racing across the UK, with short-lived periods of drier, brighter and sunnier weather between them. Wettest over western areas, especially western Scotland.

Some very strong winds are possible on a few days, perhaps leading to some disruption. We saw such events during December 2011, 2013 and 1999, all of which featured a La Nina event over the Pacific. Although it will often be quite mild, there's good evidence that the low pressure track will sometimes plunge south of the UK, across France and the Alps. This will introduce north-westerly winds for a couple of days, leading to colder weather. There will be night frosts and scattered sleet, hail and even a few snow showers. These cold spells should be fairly short-lived, with most snow only settling over the hills and mountains in the north. Milder west or south-westerly winds will be more frequent.

Further ahead

We will look in more detail at the second half of November and start of December and assess the risk of there being some widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall during this time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mild & drier for a time. A stormy late November.

_________________________________

Saturday 7 November – Sunday 15 November

Turning very mild. Dry in south and east.

After another chilly night, with some localised frost and patchy dense fog to start the day, Saturday 7th November will be dry for many parts of the UK, with high pressure leading to further sunshine. Cloud becoming more extensive across Wales as well as the southern and western half of England as the day progresses. There will be showery bursts of rain edging northwards into Devon, Cornwall and south Wales. Very mild in southern England and west Wales, with temperatures reaching 15C or 16C here.

During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, further bands of cloud and showery rain will spread northwards and a bit further eastwards across the UK. Some locally heavy pulses at times and the low risk of a crack of thunder. This is most likely over south-west England. Lowest rainfall amounts and best chance of sunny spells will be over eastern and north-eastern areas of the UK. Very mild by day and night, with maximum temperatures reaching 17C, perhaps 18C.

During the middle and end of this week, a similar weather pattern will dominate, with a huge area of high pressure over continental Europe. This will prevent Atlantic fronts from pushing eastwards across the UK. Instead, they will stall over western areas, with western and south-western Scotland predicted to see the highest totals. Brisk winds on a few days, more especially over Scotland. Much drier and less windy over central and eastern England. Mild, with winds from the south and south-west.

Monday 16 November – Sunday 22 November

Mild conditions continuing. Wettest in north-west.

The most likely outcome during this week is for a huge area of high pressure to remain situated across much of continental Europe. The UK will once again be located on the milder western side of this high pressure ridge. Atlantic fronts running into western and northern fringes of the UK before stalling. Milder than average conditions will continue, with the risk of frost quite low, even in Scotland. A distinct north-west to south-east split in rainfall totals and wind speeds.

We will see the south and east again experiencing less rainfall and wind than would typically occur in mid-November. The reverse is likely to be the case over western Scotland. However, during the first half of the week, there is a slight chance that high pressure extends its influence further west, leading to a calmer & drier period of weather, even over west Wales and western Scotland. Winds would turn south-easterly over southern and eastern parts of England, drawing in drier air from the near continent. While this drier air would lead to more sunshine and less cloud cover by day, overnight temperatures would fall sharply, with some frost expected.

Towards the end of this week, there is more of a risk that high pressure declines quite quickly over the near continent and low pressure areas start to intensify over the north Atlantic and near Scotland. Westerly winds strengthening widely over the UK, with periods of heavy rain making their presence felt across all parts. Such a scenario is more likely during the final week in November, than during the latter half of this week.

Monday 23 November – Sunday 6 December

Widely wetter and windier. Short cold plunges.

In some of our recent updates, we have been mentioning the prospect of some cold northerly plunges occurring as we get to late November. With a La Nina event ongoing in the Pacific (a vast area of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean), then the UK can sometimes see an increase in the frequency of cold northerly winds during November.

However, unusual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature patterns are not the only influence on the UK's weather in late autumn. In some previous years, an entrenched La Nina pattern fails to coincide with any sustained pre-Christmas cold weather over the UK. 2020 could be another of these years. This two week period should see a return to brisk westerly winds and fast moving frontal systems racing across the UK, with short-lived periods of drier, brighter and sunnier weather between them. Wettest over western areas, especially western Scotland.

Some very strong winds are possible on a few days, perhaps leading to some disruption. We saw such events during December 2011, 2013 and 1999, all of which featured a La Nina event over the Pacific. Although it will often be quite mild, there's good evidence that the low pressure track will sometimes plunge south of the UK, across France and the Alps. This will introduce north-westerly winds for a couple of days, leading to colder weather. There will be night frosts and scattered sleet, hail and even a few snow showers. These cold spells should be fairly short-lived, with most snow only settling over the hills and mountains in the north. Milder west or south-westerly winds will be more frequent.

Further ahead

We will look in more detail at the second half of November and start of December and assess the risk of there being some widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall during this time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

In other words they don't have a clue

Thursday 12 Nov - Saturday 21 Nov

A dry and bright start to the period for many, although some rain is expected to push into western parts by Wednesday. The mild and settled conditions are likely to remain for the rest of the week, but often cloudier, with a continued risk of mist and fog, particularly across eastern parts. Any rain and strong winds are likely to be confined to the western areas. Later in the period, high pressure looks to dominate leaving dry and more settled conditions, however occasional unsettled weather cannot be ruled out completely. Temperatures are likely to be at or above average for this time of year, particularly in any brighter spells where it will feel particularly mild.

Sunday 22 Nov - Sunday 6 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting further west and north of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining mild before possibly turning colder than average into December with risks of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 13 Nov - Sunday 22 Nov

Remaining unsettled for the rest of the week, with some rain expected to push into western parts at the beginning of Thursday and again on Friday. The mild and settled conditions are likely to return for the rest of the weekend and into next week, but often cloudier, with a continued risk of mist and fog, particularly across eastern parts. Any rain and strong winds are likely to be confined to the western areas. Later in the period, high pressure looks to dominate leaving dry and more settled conditions, however occasional unsettled weather cannot be ruled out completely. Temperatures are likely to be at or above average for this time of year, particularly in any brighter spells where it will feel particularly mild.

Monday 23 Nov - Monday 7 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting further west and north of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining mild before possibly turning colder than average into December with risks of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 13 Nov - Sunday 22 Nov

Remaining unsettled for the rest of the week, with some rain expected to push into western parts at the beginning of Thursday and again on Friday. The mild and settled conditions are likely to return for the rest of the weekend and into next week, but often cloudier, with a continued risk of mist and fog, particularly across eastern parts. Any rain and strong winds are likely to be confined to the western areas. Later in the period, high pressure looks to dominate leaving dry and more settled conditions, however occasional unsettled weather cannot be ruled out completely. Temperatures are likely to be at or above average for this time of year, particularly in any brighter spells where it will feel particularly mild.

Monday 23 Nov - Monday 7 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting further west and north of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining mild before possibly turning colder than average into December with risks of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 14 Nov - Monday 23 Nov

Next weekend is likely to remain unsettled with further rain and wind, particularly in the northwest. Some dry spells are still expected, especially in the south and east. Overall temperatures are likely to be above average for this time of year, so fairly mild with reduced chance of frost. This is expected to continue through most of mid-November, though the length of the dry spells may increase. This is likely to bring temperatures more down to normal. Later in the month, high pressure looks to dominate leaving dry and more settled conditions, however occasional unsettled weather cannot be ruled out completely. Temperatures are likely to start to turn cooler again, with an increased chance of frost.

Tuesday 24 Nov - Tuesday 8 Dec

The end of November is likely to be generally settled with high pressure set to dominate. However, occasional unsettled periods do remain possible although likely to be short-lived and mostly affecting further west and north of the UK. Temperatures are probably remaining mild before possibly turning colder than average into December with risks of overnight frosts. The chance of wintery precipitation could also be increasing into December, notably for northern higher ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/