Jetstream running from NW across UK until Sat 6th when it curls round and supports LP over the N Sea. Successive loops extend and develop the LP progressively further south to Brittany Sat 13th where it sticks until Wed 16th, W flow resuming across Shetland. quite different to yesterday's forecast, matches a seriously large LP i the N Sea shown on BBC last night (though BBC still thought that rain would be a metter of chance)
GFS - matches above. 980mb in N Sea Sat 6th (less direst arctic feed than previously shown), decaying to slack trough from Norway to Cornwall Wed 10th, centre over Brittany 1000mb Sat 13th, Azores HP back in charge over UK Tue 16th onwards and then looking very warm
GEFS - temps for all of UK below seasonal norm Thu 4th - Thu 11th then recovering to a little above through to thu 18th, quite a lot of rain about but not much agreement between runs.
ECM - similar but positions next week's LP closer to east coast than GFS, and trough from Wed 10th less continuous, breaking up into small local centres, one of which later develops 1005mb over Biscay Fri 12th
Models a week or so ago were hinting at this sort of unsettled spell but then went off it. Now it's back in force! Summer will resume in mid-June.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl