Jetstream running from NW across UK until Sat 6th when it curls round and supports LP over the N Sea. Successive loops extend and develop the LP progressively further south to Brittany Sat 13th where it sticks until Wed 16th, W flow resuming across Shetland. quite different to yesterday's forecast, matches a seriously large LP i the N Sea shown on BBC last night (though BBC still thought that rain would be a metter of chance)

GFS - matches above. 980mb in N Sea Sat 6th (less direst arctic feed than previously shown), decaying to slack trough from Norway to Cornwall Wed 10th, centre over Brittany 1000mb Sat 13th, Azores HP back in charge over UK Tue 16th onwards and then looking very warm

GEFS - temps for all of UK below seasonal norm Thu 4th - Thu 11th then recovering to a little above through to thu 18th, quite a lot of rain about but not much agreement between runs.

ECM - similar but positions next week's LP closer to east coast than GFS, and trough from Wed 10th less continuous, breaking up into small local centres, one of which later develops 1005mb over Biscay Fri 12th

Models a week or so ago were hinting at this sort of unsettled spell but then went off it. Now it's back in force! Summer will resume in mid-June.

 

 

 

 

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Well a rubbish week or so to come but ECM now also picking up the idea of 'hot easterlies'  by the 11th. Seems to be the quickest route back to summer heat.

 

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Well a rubbish week or so to come but ECM now also picking up the idea of 'hot easterlies'  by the 11th. Seems to be the quickest route back to summer heat.

 

I do love a good summer easterly. 

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I'm hoping for at least 5mm tomorrow and as much again over the following few days, to stop grass burning off completely.
About half silage and hay area which still resembles a well trodden lawn in August, however the areas not all but dead might respond and bulk up a bit yet.
Spring sown crops and reseeds (I don't have this year) look disastrous that I've seen round about, with all but moist patches practically *not there* 

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GFS 12z brings cool and unsettled weather for the rest of the week and the weekend with suppressed temperatures nationwide. Several decent chances of rain for a lot of us, hopefully doing the world of good for the gardens.

The persistent trough slowly fills out into the following week with slack conditions and the likelihood of heavy showers with temperatures recovering to the high teens, perhaps low twenties further south and east by mid next week. Warmer air lies over the continent and the GFS 12z op is tentative in wafting it towards us, giving a gentle east or ENE feed later next week with drier conditions away from the far south which could see some thundery stuff.

I reckon a fair few rogue members will again show the blowtorch scenario later next week as some align just right. IMO there isn't any drastic changes from the 06z with the low over Biscay not as pronounced this time around.

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GFS 12z brings cool and unsettled weather for the rest of the week and the weekend with suppressed temperatures nationwide. Several decent chances of rain for a lot of us, hopefully doing the world of good for the gardens.

The persistent trough slowly fills out into the following week with slack conditions and the likelihood of heavy showers with temperatures recovering to the high teens, perhaps low twenties further south and east by mid next week. Warmer air lies over the continent and the GFS 12z op is tentative in wafting it towards us, giving a gentle east or ENE feed later next week with drier conditions away from the far south which could see some thundery stuff.

I reckon a fair few rogue members will again show the blowtorch scenario later next week as some align just right. IMO there isn't any drastic changes from the 06z with the low over Biscay not as pronounced this time around.

 

we’ll see how much we get here. Hoping for a good dousing as the gardens and lawns are bloody desperate. But usually it’s downgraded at the time. Like living in central France in early August currently. 

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we’ll see how much we get here. Hoping for a good dousing as the gardens and lawns are bloody desperate. But usually it’s downgraded at the time. Like living in central France in early August currently. 

The lawns may be desperate, but all I am hoping for is we don't get what I am really fearing. What we don't want is a month long deluge which will flood, which is a genuine risk. Once a pattern change sets in, it can take ages to reset. A moderate rainfall for a while would be welcome, I accept that, as long as we don't get too much.

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ECm 12z pretty decent with the unsettled weekend potentially a distant memory by day 10 as high pressure ridges in and a slack continental feed establishes with the risk of thundery stuff further south.

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ECm 12z pretty decent with the unsettled weekend potentially a distant memory by day 10 as high pressure ridges in and a slack continental feed establishes with the risk of thundery stuff further south.

That certainly looks better. Hopefully a new trend.

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Horrendous f/cast for the next few days for us here on the east coast, gale force NEly winds, heavy showers rattling through...!! and i can't see how a 'summer' easterly is any better next week...looks like the big coat will be coming out again and the heating will be on...!!

Summer fans should not look at this morning's GFS ouch!

GEM much better decent push torwards the uk from the Azores high.

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Fascinating output actually this morning because it looks like the Ukmo is building in the Azores GEM style at 144h aswell but it still could go the absolute horror show of the GFS. All eyes on the ECM now.

 

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Summer fans should not look at this morning's GFS ouch!

GEM much better decent push torwards the uk from the Azores high.

Ironically, we are stuck between two blocking highs with us stuck in no mans land. This after enjoying the blocking for so many weeks.

With HP near by the hope has to be that it will meander back over us.

Its certainly and unwelcome change of you like the sunny and dry weather.

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Summer fans should not look at this morning's GFS ouch!

GEM much better decent push torwards the uk from the Azores high.

Yes, a real 'Moomin run' that one :)

 

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GFS keeps a trough trapped over the UK for virtually the whole run. GEFS paint a generally less bad picture though. The control run is fairly toasty.

ECM out to 192 and has a GFS style limpet low, though.

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UK looks as if it's sandwiched in the cold patch between the two above-mentioned HPs http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4. For the immediate future Arpege & Hirlam and probably other rainfall models show bands of showers irregularly running down from the north with the most likely chances of rain across N England and, curiously given the presence of LP off the east coast, down the west coast instead. But this could change - the NetO has heavy rain along the S  (central) Coast today when yesterday there was nothing. And the BBC is talking about snow above 2000m on Friday in Scotland.

GFS models a N-ly flow with deep LP off E Scotland 980mb Sat 6th and gales all down the E coast. That fills by Tue 9th but tenative approaches by HP from the SW are rebuffed by new LP Wed 10th, same position but only 1000mb. That LP wobbles around and deepens off Ireland 990mb Sun14th, eventually filling there by Fri 19th, but despite its position not pulling in any warmth from the south until then   (i.e. HP building in from Europe)

GEFS a bit more optimistic on temps; cold this weekend but most runs back above norm Thu 11th but declining a little later on. Lots of rain in SE on most days on most runs to Mon 15th , less persistent but still present after that. Rain more patchy in Scotland after Mon 8th. other way about in SW with more rain later. Rainfall models don't look very stable anyway.

ECM much the same as GFS to Wed 10th (today's run); yesterday's run then recovered with HP and warmth from the SW but needs checking when today's run appears as current output has taken a turn for the worse. EDIT: yes, ECM now emphasises that LP over Ireland but moves it S to Iberia so E-lies for S coast and HP with warmth over Scotland linking both to Atlantic and Europe. Sat 13th

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GFS keeps a trough trapped over the UK for virtually the whole run. GEFS paint a generally less bad picture though. The control run is fairly toasty.

ECM out to 192 and has a GFS style limpet low, though.

 

Looks like the ECM ends up in-between the GEM and GFS and similar to the GFS control hot easterly but with plenty of thundery showers in the south.

Very interesting output because we are a few tweaks away from a significant heatwave or 2007 style flooding rains.

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Summer fans should not look at this morning's GFS ouch!

GEM much better decent push torwards the uk from the Azores high.

Yep, no question these are abysmal charts and I stick by my thoughts that June can be safely written off. It really is going to be a long arduous journey to get back to anything resembling summer....it could be the pattern we have for the whole season. I think 2007/2012 repeat is far more likely than a 1995/2018 repeat.

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Nice to see a change on the way, the recent endless sunshine is being replaced, as you would expect, with more in the way of changeable and cooler weather. The "European monsoon" is, after all, one of the more reliable events each year!

It will be strange to see some rain, albeit down here amounts are expected to be small... the GFS has, though, been slowly increasing the totals. I'm hopeful that the garden will get a good soaking over the next week or so - and I'm sure the farmers will be grateful of the rain too.

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Yep, no question these are abysmal charts and I stick by my thoughts that June can be safely written off. It really is going to be a long arduous journey to get back to anything resembling summer....it could be the pattern we have for the whole season. I think 2007/2012 repeat is far more likely than a 1995/2018 repeat.

The whole of June? Do you have a crystal ball. In fact you post alludes to the whole of summer. 

Please can you share the charts where you are seeing this?

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