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I would frankly be amazed if it didn’t (easily) reach double figures here on Saturday (rather than the 7°C shown on the 06z GFS op run or the 5-6°C on the 12z). It looks a bit rubbish for a few days though to be sure.
The 12z GFS for your neck of the woods at the weekend is absolutely extraordinary. I don't think I've ever seen anything colder in June. For the rest of us, cold and unsettled for a very long time sums up the charts up to 192 hours, and probably beyond.
Shockingly vile.
The 12z GFS for your neck of the woods at the weekend is absolutely extraordinary. I don't think I've ever seen anything colder in June. For the rest of us, cold and unsettled for a very long time sums up the charts up to 192 hours, and probably beyond.Shockingly vile.
I will revisit it after the event but as I said double figures looks likely. Possibly only just though which is a bit depressing. Not extraordinary just poor for early June and maybe cold enough for some snow on the mountains.
10cm based on this run https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_126_25.png
12z GFS is an appalling run.
A low pressure system sits to the north of Scotland like a limpet for the vast majority of the run, just whirring away.
Bizarre. I hope it doesn’t verify. A slack flow off the Irish Sea is a crap direction for us here.
MetO is more optimistic with HP nudging in from the West by T+144.
Warm up still there from about the 11th. Will it hold?
A max of 1c and heavy snow in June in parts of Scotland must be absolutely exceptional. Unbelievable charts.
Not at 4000ft asl it’s not. Cold for early June yes but not absolutely exceptional.
Pert4 looks considerably colder than the June 1975 snow event.
Oh boy
Absolutely brilliant - if it happens... We desperately need rain and I'm sick of of the constant sunshine.
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I hope we are not revisiting this comment in a few weeks time when people are flooded out, which I fear may happen.
Perhaps I'm missing something, but I see nothing in any of the output that is presently available which suggests that anywhere in the UK is likely to be "flooded out" anytime soon.
What is being suggested are cooler and more unsettled conditions for a while than we have been used to of late, but nothing unusually bad for this time of year. Let's keep things in perspective, eh?
Perhaps I'm missing something, but I see nothing in any of the output that is presently available which suggests that anywhere in the UK is likely to be "flooded out" anytime soon.What is being suggested are cooler and more unsettled conditions for a while than we have been used to of late, but nothing unusually bad for this time of year. Let's keep things in perspective, eh?
We will see David. I am going for a very wet June followed by a steady improvement to something around average.
As you say we will see. That said, there is presently no mention in any of the MetO daily updates of any unusually wet weather for anywhere in the UK later on this month. For your thoughts to be proved right, I think the thoughts of the MetO are going to have to change significantly as we go further into this month.
Indeed, and I know I will get hammered for this, but to me, the first half of June looks a near write off. Second half, who knows, but won't be long before we consider June as not looking good at all. One third of summer will then be gone.
Moomin Has Spoken. The weather world now cowers 'neath whatever flimsy psychological shelters that come to hand...
Nothing in the models that I can see suggests anything "very wet". Sunshine and showers but not much in the way of major frontal rain events. The heaviest rain may well be from thundery downpours coming up from the south
Wrong set up. If we get southerly tracking lows or cut off lows for a prolonged period then it could be very wet but that isn't on offer currently. That said, it will be a tad unsettled but rainfall amounts look quite small
To be fair today's GFS 12z is showing twice as much rain in the next 10 days as some places have had in the last 2 months. Wouldn't rely on it though.
Still less than an inch in 10 days for many. That would disappear into the dust around here.
Well the 18z is looking rather toasty after a week of meh weather.