Models still pointing too a cold and potentially snowy/frosty outlook with far less wind in the North

Models still pointing too a cold and potentially snowy/frosty outlook with far less wind in the North

Indeed. A growing trend towards a much colder and wintry March. 

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Jetstream still running strongly close to UK but for much of the period to the south. That suggests a mobile rather cold pattern and snow on hills with lower ground seeing sleet or a quick dump of wet snow. 200+mph streaks today & Thu 5th. Some big loops developing Mon 9th with the UK under a section of the stream directly from the north.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 shows below zero day-night averages picking out high ground in W Europe.

GFS has westerly flows with LP centres crossing the UK and mostly pulling in some polar maritime air behind Tue 25th, Thu 27th, Sat 29th, Tue 3rd, Thu 5th, Sat 7th - doesn't come more unsettled than that! Finally a ridge of HP on Tue 10th with the caveat that GFS has been showing this in previous runs but at progressively later dates.

ECM agrees though tending to place the centre of the LPs towards the north of the UK

GEFS ens generally wet (if anything, the focus moves south) and temp a couple of degrees below the seasonal norm. Snow row figures mid-teens for the north but even the south has a few high values in today's runs.

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This is very much the predicted pattern for our new (warmed) world, furious and mild winters with lots of rain and wind, and cold springs. Still - I won't say no to seeing a few flakes falling even if not lasting long.

However, a cold spring is bad for my business - but since it is out of my control - might as well enjoy the big wet flakes a falling - hopefully - from these increasingly trending charts...

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Indeed. A growing trend towards a much colder and wintry March. 

I wonder if it could be similar in nature to March 1995. That March saw quite a lot of cold zonality in my neck of the woods with a fair amount of snow at times, more than we saw during the 1994/95 winter itself.

It would be good for sure if this year's summer is like its counterpart from 1995!

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Just looked at the 00z GFS.

It surprised me just how chilly it’s looking - with a few snow marginal snow opportunities for the north through the coming week. 

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I wonder if it could be similar in nature to March 1995. That March saw quite a lot of cold zonality in my neck of the woods with a fair amount of snow at times, more than we saw during the 1994/95 winter itself.

It would be good for sure if this year's summer is like its counterpart from 1995!

As you know, I am an advocate of using pattern matching as part of a long range forecast, and let's just say that the patterns starting to show their hand now do have a 1995 look about them.

I know that people stick two fingers up to any sort of LRF but I do think there is something in it.

I stand by what I said a few pages back and believe that we will have a wintry March in many places.

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This is very much the predicted pattern for our new (warmed) world, furious and mild winters with lots of rain and wind, and cold springs. Still - I won't say no to seeing a few flakes falling even if not lasting long.

However, a cold spring is bad for my business - but since it is out of my control - might as well enjoy the big wet flakes a falling - hopefully - from these increasingly trending charts...

Do you ever not make reference to CG and GW in the MO thread?  It’s not the only answer to everything weather related.  

The JS is very active still and continues to be so going into March.  It looks to me at the moment like a rather cold wet period, not a winter wonderland is likely for the 1st week of March.  

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This is very much the predicted pattern for our new (warmed) world, furious and mild winters with lots of rain and wind, and cold springs. Still - I won't say no to seeing a few flakes falling even if not lasting long.

However, a cold spring is bad for my business - but since it is out of my control - might as well enjoy the big wet flakes a falling - hopefully - from these increasingly trending charts...

If you need a new line of work perhaps you should consider a roofing or fencing business.  Boom times around here. A big fence near to me which was destroyed by Ciara was blown over again last night. 

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If you need a new line of work perhaps you should consider a roofing or fencing business.  Boom times around here. A big fence near to me which was destroyed by Ciara was blown over again last night. 

My fence is being propped by the neighbours hedge and ivy. Just as well its always a westerly wind. I've propped it up with rocks on my side

Will wait till the weather calms down before getting it fixed, but looks like another few weeks of this rubbish

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Do you ever not make reference to CG and GW in the MO thread?  It’s not the only answer to everything weather related.  

The JS is very active still and continues to be so going into March.  It looks to me at the moment like a rather cold wet period, not a winter wonderland is likely for the 1st week of March.  

IMO he’s got every right to mention GW in the MO thread. The two are inextricably linked, unless of course your Donald Trump or are blind to scientific data. 

It is an interesting chilly and messy 12z GFS op run so far.

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It is an interesting chilly and messy 12z GFS op run so far.

Indeed, might spoil the snow flake free winter for many, albeit settling snow away from the North and high ground is less likely. There's several LPs wandering in to cold air at varying points and even the odd one that takes enough of a southerly track to bring some snow down here.

I guess of more concern is that there's essentially nothing in the way of settled weather, with plenty of rain (or sleet/snow) about meaning the risk of flooding won't be going away if it verifies.

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IMO he’s got every right to mention GW in the MO thread. The two are inextricably linked, unless of course your Donald Trump or are blind to scientific data. 

IMO, we would all do well to remember what Brian said this time last year about discussing GW/CC and everything related to it on this forum.

I know there have been threads recently in UIA in which GW/CC has formed at least part of the discussion, but in my view it is probably in the best interests of harmony between posters in this particular thread if it is kept away from here.

 

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IMO, we would all do well to remember what Brian said this time last year about discussing GW/CC and everything related to it on this forum.

I know there have been threads recently in UIA in which GW/CC has formed at least part of the discussion, but in my view it is probably in the best interests of harmony between posters in this particular thread if it is kept away from here.

 

👍🏻

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First time in a long time Aberdeen has seen it's ensemble mean actually stay below average from beginning to end of the run:

Mike? - Could be in for some snow here?

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Lots of “just on the wrong side of marginal” starting tomorrow I suspect. Mixed in with a large slice of “bright with a cold westerly wind” and a side serving of “at least the mountains are getting some snow”. 

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Lots of “just on the wrong side of marginal” starting tomorrow I suspect. Mixed in with a large slice of “bright with a cold westerly wind” and a side serving of “at least the mountains are getting some snow”. 

I suspect you shall get some sleet and wet snow with rain followed by large wet snowflakes in heavier bursts of precipitation but nothing really settling - same for Edinburgh!?

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Feels like we might be shaping up for one of those Easter colder than Christmas years.

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Feels like we might be shaping up for one of those Easter colder than Christmas years.

Quite possibly, Tim.

What I would add is that IMHO, the output for the early part of March we are seeing at the moment is the most interesting the models have been at any time since the start of December. As I commented the other night, what seems to be likely to happen is that pressure will decline somewhat over the Med in the coming days compared to what has been the case for virtually all the winter, this allowing the jet stream to dig a bit further south.

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