As you know, I am an advocate of using pattern matching as part of a long range forecast, and let's just say that the patterns starting to show their hand now do have a 1995 look about them.

I know that people stick two fingers up to any sort of LRF but I do think there is something in it.

I stand by what I said a few pages back and believe that we will have a wintry March in many places.

I’ll take a summer 1995 repeat if it’s on offer!

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Feels like we might be shaping up for one of those Easter colder than Christmas years.

IMBY In flat Cambridge I struggle to get any Snow even in cold Winter's, let alone March. Yet another winter gone by with out even a flake. 

Meanwhile the first major snow event of the Winter is just about to start for some parts of the North UKand hills of Wales. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=3&mode=45&map=430

 

Looking further afield my least favorite type of Winter Patten looks like setting up shop. Cool-Cold zonality a slight glimmer of hope for the South at day 10 on the ECM with a low diving Southeast and a chance of a rise in pressure behind it,but that's straw clutching and will be gone in a few hours.

For snow lovers, the chart to look at is https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/uk/next3to6days/snow 3-6 days ahead showing widespread accumulations except for the SE (but I've found this site optimistic in the past)

The more conventional GFS shows as yesterday LP rolling through today, Thu 27th (but further south and not as deep; the BBC last night was in two minds as to whether this one would connect with the jet and deepen or not), Sat 29th, Tue 3rd (over the Isle of Wight with some quite cold air; looks the best chance of snow for S England), Sat 7th; cold zonal flow finally disrupted by ridge of HP, tentatively in the wake of the last LP but with a strong ridge to Scandi Wed 11th (but as noted yesterday, GFS keeps deferring this. If it happens there's even a chance of a weak easterly!)

ECM ignores a defined LP on Thu 27th but has the others in more or less the same place at the same time. FAX has the Thu feature at 991 mb in the Channel.

GEFS cool but with a short-lived spike of mildness most marked for the S on Sat 29th that wasn't there yesterday but has shown up in previous runs. Generally wet but drier early this week for the N than I would have expected from other charts

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Why is the UK winter so predictable? - I said back in late December that we would have a horrible, mild winter with what should be winter appearing in early spring - the current model output appears to show I was correct.

I don't claim any special forecasting genius - it is just the most predictable pattern for the UK ever - mild soggy January and February, followed by a breakout of cold weather just when the plants are coming to life, leading to delicate buds being destroyed. My wife will be fretting about her acers and camelias once more, as the new growth is stunted and burnt by late frosts.

 

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The models seems to be keen on the idea of a sting jetty-type compact low rattling through the South East at some point on Saturday morning. It is a long way off in forecasting terms and thus subject to fine tuning but it's hard to ignore the subtle agreement on this one.

This sorry excuse of a "Winter" continue where the first week of March is now looking like a continuation of Autumn '19/20.

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For snow lovers, the chart to look at is https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/uk/next3to6days/snow 3-6 days ahead showing widespread accumulations except for the SE (but I've found this site optimistic in the past)

 

LOL! My 'law' in full effect on that map 

 

 

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Take that , but wont happen JFF for us all 

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Hi Marcus, the frame after that is better for MBY!

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Take that , but wont happen JFF for us all 

 

I bet we don't get a northwards adjustment on this one 

 

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Hi Marcus, the frame after that is better for MBY!

 

I was IMBY I'm afraid

 

But yes still a good chart 

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I bet we don't get a northwards adjustment on this one 

 

A slight adjustment east and south  would be just fine.

😉

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I was IMBY I'm afraid

 

But yes still a good chart 

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I was IMBY I'm afraid

 

But yes still a good chart 

While in this one the south coast of Kent has near storm force winds just for the sake of a few minutes flurry at the tail end. 

No thanks. Roll on Spring, I've had enough of this Autumn now as I've been out in the wind half an hour ago and I'm still trying to catch my breath. 

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And in the shorter term

 

I'd be thrilled with that 

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Fine detail of ppn type aside, the longer term looks much of the same and unerringly toeing the line of the EC monthly anomalies yet again - average to slightly above temps and above average precipitation going into March.
I’ll be glad to see the back of this pitifully mild and wet winter.

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Fine detail of ppn type aside, the longer term looks much of the same and unerringly toeing the line of the EC monthly anomalies yet again - average to slightly above temps and above average precipitation going into March.
I’ll be glad to see the back of this pitifully mild and wet winter.

Last night the Beeb were going for HP covering S Britain moving into March 

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Starting to look a bit interesting IMO

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Starting to look a bit interesting IMO

I'm expecting to see falling snow here in the next couple of weeks. As ever I'll point out that I'm far less confident about whether there will be any accumulations.

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I like the diminishing rain spikes.

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12z GFS 

Be nice to see but even Thursday is too far away

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