Concerning? Auto correct strikes again!

 

Aw, I had a vision of a mass jam-making event in the South East as a distraction from the storm.

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Ahwell, last nights snow potential ended up seemingly well modeled by the charts. Next feature to keep an eye on will be Sundays potential slidinglow, with Snow on the northern edge.

It looks an intense feature, so real potential to dump a lot of snow locally, mostly over hills, but snow all the same.

Might aim for a hike up Moel Fammau if the conditions favour

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Its plausible Darren. High-res will play with this for a while yet trying to get the phasing right with the core of the jet riding NNE above SE UK on Sun evening. Get the baroclinic ripple to squeeze out of the left exit zone and boom. 
It’s likely to present various options until Saturday - one of which could be the bomb we’re seeing this morning.

I, too, have been noticing the shortwave formation appearing over my neck of the woods in a few runs, but is gone on the current runs and I for one hope it stays that way. Heavy rain I can handle as the drainage around here is excellent, living on a sloped road leading to the sea but I can't be doing with any more strong gusty winds now. Although it is not looking good for new build housing estates on known flood plains.

Thankfully the 06z GFS run does offer more comfort in terms of things settling down next week as well as becoming milder and drier thanks to high pressure building in from the south and sticking around for longer, ECM a little less so but have seen worse for this time of the year. 

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Arpege has some pretty high rain totals by the end of the weekend - 100mm over Hampshire, and over 150mm in Dartmoor and parts of Wales. Hence the amber warnings issued this morning.

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Arpege has some pretty high rain totals by the end of the weekend - 100mm over Hampshire, and over 150mm in Dartmoor and parts of Wales. Hence the amber warnings issued this morning.

amber warnings are very localised i see now

Arpege has some pretty high rain totals by the end of the weekend - 100mm over Hampshire, and over 150mm in Dartmoor and parts of Wales. Hence the amber warnings issued this morning.

 

That map shows why I much prefer a SW'ly to a W'ly flow 

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Arpege has some pretty high rain totals by the end of the weekend - 100mm over Hampshire, and over 150mm in Dartmoor and parts of Wales. Hence the amber warnings issued this morning.

I guess one positive about this location is that we don't get the rain in these setups (not just the snow!)

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6Z GFS has a rather chilly NWerly for the end of the meteorological winter.

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That map shows why I much prefer a SW'ly to a W'ly flow 

 

Fingers cross the rain shadow works to our benefit this time Saint.

 

I want to get out and about this weekend, there a chance we might just get a bit of rain.  Being in so many weather warnings seemingly since last september for heavy rain, Im glad we have a chance of missing this one out

 

 

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Fingers cross the rain shadow works to our benefit this time Saint.

 

I want to get out and about this weekend, there a chance we might just get a bit of rain.  Being in so many weather warnings seemingly since last september for heavy rain, Im glad we have a chance of missing this one out

 

 

I was unable to get out on my bike last weekend due to an operation and looks like this weekend will be a washout too. Roll on spring

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Tonight's GFS thinks we will never grow tired of it crying wolf, because the double tease of this morning was another outlier - yes jack-in-the-box clown face - popping up again to say - ha-ha - had you there, Outlier!!! Ya-boo, I got you!!
Yawn-yawn!! Boring, boring zonal...

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The achievement of an Arctic oscillation of +6 has taken 70 odd years to record- So you could say that its a 1:70 event.

Tonights ECM goes for a +7 index value in just 9 days time ....

Record on top of record if it happens. Thats how special this winter is....

The achievement of an Arctic oscillation of +6 has taken 70 odd years to record- So you could say that its a 1:70 event.

Tonights ECM goes for a +7 index value in just 9 days time ....

Record on top of record if it happens. Thats how special this winter is....

 

'Special'... hmmm.....

Not exactly been great has it, Steve?

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Winter 2019/20...AKA 'The Special One' 

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Winter 2019/20...AKA 'The Special One' 

LOL....rather hysterically....

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I got a call from my son saying that he was in Hunstanton - on Tuesday and it was a total blizzard, settling too. He sent me a photo. When I got home - my house had been a mile inside the very edge of it, and it had just clipped us, leaving a slushy white scattering, whereas he had witnessed a couple of cms. This vicarious snow event does in fact beat the sum total of 1989 down here, but not by much. Actually I remember that year - we didn't even get a frost. So since the planet has warmed 0.4 degrees since then, I guess I should count my lucky stars that I have had snow falling (although unseen by me) and a few frosts to boot!

It doesn't seem possible - but it has been even more dire than this, at least once.

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Storm Dennis gathering strength off Greenland (920 mb on FAX though see Q's thread) before launching itself across the Northern Isles (950mb Sun night). Besides general wind damage the trailing fronts in the south look set to deliver a lot of rain (see FAX again). After that things quieten down with brisk westerlies slowly abating as HP tries to push in from the south, more or less successfully, throughout the week beginning Sun 23 Feb though the W-ly tendency never really goes away. Sat 29th sees another storm brewing up near Iceland.

ECM in general agreement with above GFS though the HP is weaker,

GEFS as yesterday, wet and mild to 17th, then drier especially in the S; a cool period to 20th followed by a lot of variability, tendency for a mild spell at first but mean temps revert to close to average. 

 

Even if we had a Beast from the East now it would be a mewling kitten - all of eastern Europe is well above average temps http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

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'Special'... hmmm.....

Not exactly been great has it, Steve?

Sadly special for all the wrong reasons-

One last little window in the very last closing days of winter....

What a shocker!

I'm still hoping this winter will be on the 10 mildest ever recorded. I've been saying it consistently since early December and hope we don't fall at the final hurdle. 

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The achievement of an Arctic oscillation of +6 has taken 70 odd years to record- So you could say that its a 1:70 event.

Tonights ECM goes for a +7 index value in just 9 days time ....

Record on top of record if it happens. Thats how special this winter is....

This winter is really going to mess with the stats that were showing correlations between solar minima and negative AO. I’m sure the relationship is still there but this year is a big exception. 

Currently zero sunspots and already 28 spotless days in 2020.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity

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