Except that there's been bitterly cold air north of Iceland for large parts of the winter. The issue is that the pressure patterns have not allowed it to spill south except sporadically as transient polar maritime incursions.  Indeed it’s arguable that the cold that’s been concentrated in high latitudes has been part of the reason for the very strong and sustained jet.  

If the pattern changes then the cold air may well come further south but that’s unclear and certainly there’s been no hint of the blocking we need to facilitate a cold spell rather than just a colder version of zonality.

 

Edit: pretty much in line with DEW’s good summary above.

It is inevitable that these run of westerlies will break down at some stage during the first half of Spring, so it is just a matter now of wondering where all this concentrated cold in the most northerly latitudes will spill into. Myself and I think Q talked about this a while back. 

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It is inevitable that these run of westerlies will break down at some stage during the first half of Spring, so it is just a matter now of wondering where all this concentrated cold in the most northerly latitudes will spill into. Myself and I think Q talked about this a while back. 

 

Maybe, but obviously the deeper you get into Spring, the less potent it is. You're really looking at early to mid March for anything that would resemble wintry, beyond that you're unlikely to get anything with a sting in its tail.

Quite remarkable consistency with the jet across all ens at 8-10 days. At least a hosepipe ban is off the cards this summer.

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It is inevitable that these run of westerlies will break down at some stage during the first half of Spring, so it is just a matter now of wondering where all this concentrated cold in the most northerly latitudes will spill into. Myself and I think Q talked about this a while back. 

The temperature contrast between the pole and mid latitudes does diminish as winter fades but March can still deliver stormy and unsettled weather.  What you say is akin to the 'averaging out' argument.

As always we will see but I wouldn't put any money on a change anytime soon based on the model output; cooler, perhaps cold zonality at best.

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One change I am now starting to detect from the model output with a reasonable amount of consistency is a gradual decline of heights over France and the Mediterranean as we head towards March, compared with what has been the case for much of this winter. If this comes to pass as shown, it should allow somewhat colder air to move into more northern areas at least a bit more frequently than has been commonplace this season. In fact, some of the model indicates to me that there could be quite a bit of snowfall over higher ground in parts of the north if it comes to pass, & to lower levels at times too.

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It's speculative but plausible. 

 

like absolutely any other scenario he could have mentioned

for me, so far, this has been the best winter I can recall. That’s not going to change now with a few days left. This is in my top 3 winters. Spring - early spring - whatever it brings, isn’t winter, so I’ll happily take that knowing that as warmth and sun is around the corner. 

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like absolutely any other scenario he could have mentioned

for me, so far, this has been the best winter I can recall. That’s not going to change now with a few days left. This is in my top 3 winters. Spring - early spring - whatever it brings, isn’t winter, so I’ll happily take that knowing that as warmth and sun is around the corner. 

We could sure do with plenty of warmth and sun during the upcoming spring and summer to get the ground round here dried out, Matty. It's like friggin' swampland at the moment.

Good to see you posting again btw.

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Dave, the optimistic part of me says it’ll even out and we’ll have a dry and warm spring and summer.

Whilst I have absolutely no doubt it’ll be warm, and probably be up there in terms of heat, I’ve no confidence it’ll be dry, primarily.

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ECMWF 1200 and GFS 1800 look pretty cold too me, not much more westerly rubbish to come with a bit of luck, jet stream heading south and even a scandi-ish high later in the run with an easterly feed and -10 850's quite widespread all be it in FI, its the best synoptics I've seen since November, and we might even get a few frosts......

 

like absolutely any other scenario he could have mentioned

for me, so far, this has been the best winter I can recall. That’s not going to change now with a few days left. This is in my top 3 winters. Spring - early spring - whatever it brings, isn’t winter, so I’ll happily take that knowing that as warmth and sun is around the corner. 

Well it's certainly in my top three for mild, wet, windy, muddy and decidedly all round uselessness!

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Well it's certainly in my top three for mild, wet, windy, muddy and decidedly all round uselessness!

Matty - When you say best winter ever you can recall? are you referring to the fact that it's been mild!? As many are fed up of their homes being flooded and the persistent wind and rain day after day and week after week and trees down and flooded houses esp my cousins in near Bristol!!

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Matty - When you say best winter ever you can recall? are you referring to the fact that it's been mild!? As many are fed up of their homes being flooded and the persistent wind and rain day after day and week after week and trees down and flooded houses esp my cousins in near Bristol!!

And? People die when it’s the cold and snow you crave for in a bit of a bizarre, creepy and unsettling way. Personally I cannot stand winter and cold weather, so that makes this winter absolutely fantastic for me. 10/10

Whilst flooded homes are a real shame for those affected, my advice is don’t buy a house close enough to a river that this may happen  

 

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Any reports of the demise of rain and wind seem much exaggerated, specially the rain http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.

GFS varies the pressure pattern somewhat with more localised depressions than previously, but it's still stuff rolling in off the Atlantic - Mon 24th 980mb Clyde, Thu 27th 990 mb Clyde, Mon 2nd 965mb Orkney, Thu 5th 980mb Clyde (again! GFS hates Scotland?), most of these dragging in some cold PM air. Finally a break around Sat 7th with a ridge of HP bringing air from the S. ECM similar with slight differences in timing and position.

GEFS has up and down temps at first, a dip around the 26th, a bit milder around 29th, and not much agreement after that but the mean is in the cold side, Rain (or snow on northern hills) continuing generally..

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We could sure do with plenty of warmth and sun during the upcoming spring and summer to get the ground round here dried out, Matty. It's like friggin' swampland at the moment.

Massive surprise if this summer isn't warmer than average.

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What has happened to Euro 4? It was the model for me to go to for snow prospects at short range. If it wasn't on board, you should be concerned if you want snow. 

I used it during 2009-10, I remember the snow shadow for parts of Greater Manchester it was showing for late March 2013, it showed snow but not lying during mid Feb 2018, which is what happened.

But now, its just bonkers!

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And? People die when it’s the cold and snow you crave for in a bit of a bizarre, creepy and unsettling way. Personally I cannot stand winter and cold weather, so that makes this winter absolutely fantastic for me. 10/10

Whilst flooded homes are a real shame for those affected, my advice is don’t buy a house close enough to a river that this may happen  

 

How the hell we think it is a great idea to live on flood plains is beyond me, nice enough in the summer, but as this year proves again, living near rivers or on flood plains is a no no. 

Must be tragic seeing your home flooded, poor people.

 

Well it's certainly in my top three for mild, wet, windy, muddy and decidedly all round uselessness!

Same here; aside from one of two quieter and less wet interludes, it's been a damn awful winter where I live too.

If it had been something along the lines of that wonderful early springlike spell we had in mid-late Feb last year, I doubt that anyone would have been complaining- I certainly wouldn't have been. But near-endless rain is something I can do without thanks!

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Massive surprise if this summer isn't warmer than average.

Hopefully it'll be drier than average too, Brian. I really think we could do with such a summer, especially in view of all that has happened recently.

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What has happened to Euro 4? It was the model for me to go to for snow prospects at short range. If it wasn't on board, you should be concerned if you want snow. 

I used it during 2009-10, I remember the snow shadow for parts of Greater Manchester it was showing for late March 2013, it showed snow but not lying during mid Feb 2018, which is what happened.

But now, its just bonkers!

 

Has it's range increased as before it used to just be 48 hours?

I do know some people were posting snowfall rather than accumulation charts recently though which gave a distorted picture.

I hope that is true for Monday am. Possibly, Met Office automated shows heavy snow here at 6am and ECM shows some snow accumulation.

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Same here; aside from one of two quieter and less wet interludes, it's been a damn awful winter where I live too.

If it had been something along the lines of that wonderful early springlike spell we had in mid-late Feb last year, I doubt that anyone would have been complaining- I certainly wouldn't have been. But near-endless rain is something I can do without thanks!

same here and it's not just winter all this started end Sept and in this neck of woods  Oct and Nov were even wetter 

Looked at GFS after 4-5 days rest but more of the same really! But in short term there is snow potential even for the south west on Tuesday evening/ night:

Cold rain or heavy wet snow - the Moors could get a covering if this comes about - uppers of -7c @ 850hpa and it's cold zonality.

ECM:

GFS Op:

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