What a depressing outlook as high pressure that were appearing in the medium range outputs a couple of days ago has all evaporated to more Atlantic-driven crap. Watch how it'll then become a stormy-like mess as we go into the closing days of February and opening days of March. Very different to last year when we were looking forward to record breaking Winter warmth. 

C'mon mid-Atlantic jet stream, you had your fair share of fun, give us a break now. 

At least there are some PM scraps to feed off in the north.  Hope I can get out to the hills on a well timed day and experience some significant snowfall.

 

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At least there are some PM scraps to feed off in the north.  Hope I can get out to the hills on a well timed day and experience some significant snowfall.

 

While for my neck of the woods it'll just be yet more of the same; drizzle blowing in strong south west winds thus resulting in a completely snow-free meteorological Winter.  Although it is coming up to this time of the year where I'm starting to properly feel the warmth of the sun's rays - at least whenever that does last for long enough.

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What a depressing outlook as high pressure that were appearing in the medium range outputs a couple of days ago has all evaporated to more Atlantic-driven crap. Watch how it'll then become a stormy-like mess as we go into the closing days of February and opening days of March. Very different to last year when we were looking forward to record breaking Winter warmth. 

C'mon mid-Atlantic jet stream, you had your fair share of fun, give us a break now. 

We were (as in nationwide) overdue a proper wet winter. 

Flooding is actually a good thing in the long run for the landscape as it helps disperse nutrients, which in turn keeps the soil's healthy. Healthy soil's mean good crops.

THE problem though is that we insist on building properties on flood planes, and removing natural flood barriers such as forest & scrub land, whilst also altering natural waterways. Even the increased use of tarmac and concrete on landscapes increases the risk of flooding as they prevent the ground from absorbing rainfall.

 

 

Yes could be a driving factor - SST's over past year or so in Indian Ocean have been exceptionally warm some 2-3c above average hence why there was such hot dry weather in SE Australia and hence the wildfires and this has occurred for several summers now (our winters!) which have coincided with very mild winters here.

Maybe we need to start looking at the SST's in the Indian Ocean in more detail (to determine our weather!) instead of just the pacific ENSO region and/or N, Atlantic!?  

I thought the circulations in the northern and southern hemispheres were essentially separate? What 's the mechanism for Indian Ocean SSTs affecting our weather?

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Looking a lot colder, with NW airflow in 6-7 days time

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_1.png

and a close up

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=1&time=153&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

 

Possibly some sleet (or snow) showers,

looking a bit too cold to be guaranteed as rain with no wintry stuff to me

 

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Looking a lot colder, with NW airflow in 6-7 days time

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_1.png

 

Possibly some sleet (or snow) showers,

looking a bit too cold to be guaranteed as rain with no wintry stuff to me

 

Opportunities for snow around the UK I think , much can change but looking chilly 

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Having come this far I would now be disappointed to see a flake of wintry precipitation in the closing days.

I'm hoping this 'special winter' remains devoid of anything wintry now. 

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Having come this far I would now be disappointed to see a flake of wintry precipitation in the closing days.

I'm hoping this 'special winter' remains devoid of anything wintry now. 

 

not sure about that Gusty... the odd flake in between the drizzle is what makes Winters so special down here in the South

 

Opportunities for snow around the UK I think , much can change but looking chilly 

 

Hugely underwhelming for most though. I'd rather have some Spring warmth now tbh.

 

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Hugely underwhelming for most though. I'd rather have some Spring warmth now tbh.

 

Ditto. The daffs and crocuses are out, the magnolias are budding snd various other trees are already blossoming. No cold weather please.

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Looking a lot colder, with NW airflow in 6-7 days time

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_1.png

and a close up

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=1&time=153&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

 

Possibly some sleet (or snow) showers,

looking a bit too cold to be guaranteed as rain with no wintry stuff to me

 

It would be sod's law if there was a cold spell of any kind now after such a mild winter, but I've seen this happen before. The winters of 1988/89 and 1997/98, to give you two examples were both notably mild with a real lack of anything wintry throughout, but both had late cold spells in my part of the world.

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Having come this far I would now be disappointed to see a flake of wintry precipitation in the closing days.

I'm hoping this 'special winter' remains devoid of anything wintry now. 

Agreed. I am now in spring mode. This ‘winter’ can do one as far as I am concerned. The last two years have been pretty abysmal for the south.

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It would be sod's law if there was a cold spell of any kind now after such a mild winter, but I've seen this happen before. The winters of 1988/89 and 1997/98, to give you two examples were both notably mild with a real lack of anything wintry throughout, but both had late cold spells in my part of the world.

I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.

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I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.

Why? 

I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.

Why?

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Agreed. I am now in spring mode. This ‘winter’ can do one as far as I am concerned. The last two years have been pretty abysmal for the south.

The weather will simply do as it pleases, regardless of any human wants or needs. FWIW Ive been in autumn mode since late September, and that has served me well.

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I'll take anything that doesn't involve wind after 11 weeks of constant topography enhanced westerlies - still not much hope in the models mind.

I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.

 

Why?

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I am fully expecting March to be a colder than average month, possibly significantly so, and continuing into mid-April. I would not be at all surprised to also see damaging frost and snowfall in the next 4 weeks.

Is this another one of your hunches Kieren, or have you seen any model output anywhere that is clearly pointing towards this on a consistent basis?

Speaking for myself, quite frankly I am now past caring as to whether it gets colder or it stays mostly mild, just as long as we get some friggin' dry weather sometime soon! Sick of all this rain and damp, absolutely sick of it and I'd be amazed if I am alone in this respect.

BTW, apologies for sounding like a certain poster from a city in NE Scotland above!

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Agreed. I am now in spring mode. This ‘winter’ can do one as far as I am concerned. The last two years have been pretty abysmal for the south.

I'll second that!

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