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I'm noticing a gradual uptick in Sunday mid-afternoon wind speeds for my neck of the wood on both GFS and ECM where they now stand at 51 mph with 80 mph gusts. Mind you, that is for Langdon Bay which is high ground and well exposed to the channel, still looking bloody awful overall though.There's also a chance of further nasty "mesoscale" gusty stuff associated with troughs embedded in the westerly airflow on Monday but those are much harder to forecast due to their localised nature.Oh well, it's been a lovely day today where I broke out the lawn mower and I still can feel my rosy cheeks from the early afternoon sun, not unlike the Autumn of 2013/14 where it was relentless wind and rain from end to end.
GFS has continued to ramp up the winds down here over its past few runs, now with 71mph gusts IMBY on Sunday afternoon. With gusts that high, there would probably be power cuts, transport chaos locally* and possibly structural damage to the roof, not something I fancy much.OTOH, the Met Office has 61mph gusts as a max and has been consistent with that over its past few runs. I'm hoping the Met Office forecast is closer to the mark!* The main bridge to the Isle would be closed and the old bridge - the only other route - has traffic lights. No, I won't be going anywhere on Sunday!
OTOH, the Met Office has 61mph gusts as a max and has been consistent with that over its past few runs. I'm hoping the Met Office forecast is closer to the mark!
Yes, MetO is at the lower end of forecasts but even so they did a major revision yesterday and upped the wind speed gusts predicted here from 45mph to 63mph - and they've thrown in yellow warnings for rain in various western parts.
Gusts for Chichester running close to 40mph all the way to Thursday with another peak on Thu morning early, so problems aren't going away anytime soon
ECM really ramping up the Sunday storm can't ever remember such a huge area of the UK having such damaging gusts. North Wales has the peak at a 106 mph . Many other areas have 70 to 85 mph crazy.
ECM 0z ensemble gusts for London. (15:00hrs Sunday)
Mean equates to gusts of 69 mph.
Some worrying options on offer.
ECM 0z ensemble gusts for London. (15:00hrs Sunday)Mean equates to gusts of 69 mph.Some worrying options on offer.
Yes Steve. Things appeared to have ramped up further for Sunday. This thing isn't going to last for a few hours either, the whole day will be casting up strong winds. The landscape will look quite different for some on Monday where strong winds persist, and into Tuesday. Any clean ups/repairing won't be possible until Wednesday perhaps.
Amber warning now issued for the far SE.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-09
ARPEGE tends to overdo the wind gusts a bit, but it shows what I'm seeing in many models this morning: a belt of strongest winds racing across the southern half of England during the middle part of the day.
Intriguingly, I can't see any distinct organisation of rain rates with it and it's a bit out of alignment with the cold front. I wonder if gravity waves come into this? Not an area I'm very familiar with, to be honest.
Amber warning now issued for the far SE.https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-09
Strange that it's only the SE, when other places (per GFS at any rate) have stronger mean and gust speeds, for longer. I'm thinking N then S Wales, parts of NW England & SW Scotland.
I say strange...
Strange that it's only the SE, when other places (per GFS at any rate) have stronger mean and gust speeds, for longer. I'm thinking N then S Wales, parts of NW England & SW Scotland.I say strange...
There are more on the way
ECM really ramping up the Sunday storm can't ever remember such a huge area of the UK having such damaging gusts. North Wales has the peak at a 106 mph . Many other areas have 70 to 85 mph crazy. [/quote25 Jan 1990 for example ]
[/quote25 Jan 1990 for example ]
Hello, is this the fence site?My fence on one side has completely disintegrated over the winter. Some panels are now just piles of thin planking. The neighbour is being picky about replacement costs cos we want a hit'n'miss fence to stop it getting blown over and the builders we had to do our extension have now disappeared for the winter :-@ One tip they did give was when they redo a fence they stick new posts in half way between the old posts - saves digging out the old concrete, though I guess you have to chop a panel or two if you do panels.
It seems to be.
Spur posts are what you need to think about, set in a good anchor of concrete.
Plenty like this and you can get them cheaper no doubt than BQ.
https://www.diy.com/departments/grange-concrete-repair-spur-h-1m-w-75mm/152110_BQ.prd
Digging the old concrete out and disposing of it is a pain though. A decent sledgehammer and crowbar/ironbar helps.
Cheaper and more important less disruptive than new fence posts
ECM really ramping up the Sunday storm can't ever remember such a huge area of the UK having such damaging gusts. North Wales has the peak at a 106 mph . Many other areas have 70 to 85 mph crazy. [/quote25 Jan 1990 for example ] Could be the most significant storm since then as with the Burn's Day storm of 90, its also happening in the daytime. If the predicted wind speeds happen I'm pretty sure it will be upgraded to Red by the met office. Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Could be the most significant storm since then as with the Burn's Day storm of 90, its also happening in the daytime. If the predicted wind speeds happen I'm pretty sure it will be upgraded to Red by the met office.
The English channel has a thing for funneling wind energy, and the solent channel even more so. I suspect the strongest gust in to be just east of the IOW in a SWW gale.
Maybe because the West is used to (not that uncommon) gusts of 70mph+ so things are better bolted down there, and less likely to be damaged
That area you mention seems to be prone to more activity, maybe because of the topography in the area. There are quite a few tornadoes that form in the Selsey area.
Yes, didn't Patrick Moore's observatory get flattened by one a few years back?
I wonder if this is a January 1990 scenario.
I reckon the strongest wind speed/gust will be recorded on Angelsey